Goldtent TA Paradise

Is the 7 Year Cycle Low behind us on the SPX? Here is some more chart eye candy so that you can form your own opinion. I have a bias and I admit it but I am also open to being wrong. If price can move above and stay above my current 7 Year down trend down trend line out of the May 2015 top, I will buy into the Bull story that Martin Armstrong and other Guru’s are selling.

Me thinks that until that Red line is broken convincingly, however, we have the potential for a False Breakout and the Trend is still Down.

At best, the Jury is still out. 😉

Added: A related link and a close up of a Fractal that I’m watching on the SPX. Also added a second chart I found over on the Bull & Bear Forum posted by MrMiyagi.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=369220

Added: Potential Dow Fractal in play?

My charts show that APPL, QQQ and BioTech are breaking down today again so I am adding to my BIS and QID positions along with some 6/10 APPL Puts @ 86

Looks like APPL has backtested its H&S breakdown here and the move to the downside should start to pick up steam.

Has the Stock Market Intermediate Cycle topped here? Time will Tell 😉

Here are some price channels I will be watching into the June / July timeframe.

APPL is at the neck line once again. If it gives way here, will that be the catalyst for the broader markets to move lower?

(Note: I made this post last weekend on the Rambus Forum and did not get a chance to post here until now)

Unlike some Gold Guru’s, I am not going to “guarantee” anything, but it sure looks to me that Gold has made an extremely rare “Time Based” Consolidation Intermediate Cycle (IC) Low in the late March to early April timeframe right near 5 months.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=368426

Gold’s Intermediate Cycles’s last 5-6 months in length (similar to many assets) as this seems to be the time that investor sentiment normally needs to swing between optimistic to pessimistic outlooks. As we all know, however these are not normal times…

The second chart is a 6 Year weekly that shows this 5-6 month pattern clearly with my Green vertical lines. Note that in 2011-12 we had the 6 month Bullish periods, and over the last 1+ years of Bearish periods a shorter cycle (5 months). We are now at 6 months from Gold’s early Dec 2015 IC Low, and my first chart shows that we have broken to the upside of the Red IC Downtrend line. We have a key trend line break within the normal Time band, so I believe we are in a new Intermediate Cycle here and we should continue to make new highs.

A number of paid Cycle newsletters are still expecting Gold and the Miners to roll over here into the next IC Low in the May/June timeframe because their trend lines, that they rely on, have not been broken. They may well be correct, however, I am lining up with Plunger’s deep and detailed analysis on early Phase 1 Bull markets that shows that pullbacks are mild and short in duration. You can also reference the USD’s rise in 2014 and the move by TLT in early 2014 as other Bull moves that had very mild pullbacks in the first 10+ months

My expectations are that when the Guru’s are looking for the next IC Low, Gold and the Miners will be making new highs.

As always, Time will Tell. 😉

Here are two extra charts that show Gold’s potential price channel longer term and Gold’s 4 Year Cycle. If the Bull has resumed, as we suspect, I would assume the next 3 years should be up for starters. Here is what I see in terms of uptrends and overhead resistance. Second chart shows Gold’s longer 4 Year Cycle (low to low).

Pun intended 😉

Shorting BioTech’s here with BIS again. I took profits on BIS last Fri (posted here or on RC Forum) but I am reloading here as I like the channel. Chart is extended out to where I expect stocks to make their next IC Low (late June to July timeframe).

Also shorting QQQ with QID (second chart)

Added: a second close up showing the USD wedging to a decision point.

http://www.ino.com/blog/2016/05/the-dollar-index-make-or-break/#.VzH-98fSM-I

Here are the 3 lines that I am watching.

They will be my guide on if and when to take some Miner profits.

Or I may just sit…

My latest piece:

Misreading the CoTs, Again

The Gold CoT is flashing a warning even as a percentage of open interest. However, note the very high readings in 2003, 2005 and 2009. As the chart shows, those were some of the highest readings yet Gold surged higher.

Stocks are in an interesting spot here as I have two possible Trading Cycle (TC1) counts out of the Feb IC Low.

One is Bullish and the other Bearish.

Several Cycle Newsletters, in public posts, feel we are on day 58/59 here and seeking out the next Daily Cycle Low (my Trading Cycle). This is one of my scenarios but I think there is also second scenario that needs to be considered as well.

http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/05/weekend-charts-3.html

The second scenario has a TC1 Low at 38 days were we potentially had a mild TC low but within my time band (36-45 days on ave). Under this second scenario, we are now on day 21 of TC2 and close to failing (i.e. making a lower TC Low).

The first scenario is that we are on day 59 and still looking for the TCL or DCL as others call it. Several Cycle newsletters have this view while my bias is towards my second scenario. I have circled the area on my first chart show the wedge forming (Green TC line and my speculative Red IC Downtrend line.) Scenario # 2 leads to the Green line breaking while scenario #1 has a breakout above the Red line in my circle.

This is very important as I am expecting the next SPX IC Low in the June/July timeframe based on time. A breakdown below the green line will likely lead to a lower IC Low while an upside breach will likely lead to a higher low based on time.

The Bullish case is bolstered by the Dow, Trannies and other indexes breaking above the 7 Year downtrend line during this rally. My second chart, however, is a long term weekly showing the “2000-02 Fractal” where we had False Breakout on the Dow above the 7 Year downtrend line (also in the Trannies and other Indicies as well).

Other Cycle Gurus has cited that the current break above the 7 Year line signals the end of the Bear but I think that the Jury is still out on that front based on my 2000-02 Fractal.

Mr Market will decide that for us so stay tuned. We may even see an oversold rally into mid May here but which way price breaks out of my wedge in the first chart will likely give us a clue to the longer term health of the stock market.

Many Guru’s are worried about the USD bouncing here. Sure we will see bounces, but my long term Cycle analysis shows that the USD’s 3 Year Cycle has topped and very likely, the 15 Year Cycle as well. One thing you should note from Fully’s 40 Year chart is that once the 15 Year Cycle tops, the move to the downside seems to accelerate down showing symmetry to its rise.

These two charts show why Gold is moving here and why the broader CRB complex is bottoming:

Note: First chart is Fully’s that I have annotated. The second is a “Surf City original” 😉

Long term the trend is down (larger channel) and short term, I have a couple different Trading Cycle counts on the USD here.

LikesMoney is the Pro and he thinks the USD is in a new Daily Cycle here (my Trading Cycle) but I am less sure as our trend lines are slightly different (Bias perhaps??).

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/dollar-confirms-new-daily-cycle/

So either the USD found a Trading Cycle Low on day 30 and is bouncing or we are on day 17 and and the TC low is ahead of us (18-23 days TC Low to TC Low). I think 14 days is too short for a Trading Cycle but watch my small Red TC Downtrend line in the Blue Circle below. If my 17 day count is correct, the USD should be rejected here and move lower into a TC Low sometime next week.

Added: Second, longer term, weekly chart showing the interesting spot the USD is in with respect to my Blue line out of the top inside my fork.

I have Crude on day 21 of Trading Cycle #2 with a top on day 18 so far. It appears that Crude is either moving into a half Trading Cycle (TC) low here or perhaps the TC has topped as my green TC uptrend is breaking down and backtesting today. My second chart shows a 2+ year picture on Crude. It appears we may potentially have a false breakout underway with price backtesting from below as well.

Are nearing support on important Cycle price channel trend lines. We want to see a bounce at these Blue Intermediate Cycle uptrend lines but much depends on the USD here. Will it continue to bounce or will it roll over quickly? Time will Tell.

Great Crazy Man Video from Oscar on Commodity inflation. Matches what I have been seeing in the charts as well.

http://www.livewithoscar.com/Stocks/DailyVideo.aspx

The USD just made a Lower Low indicating that the Yearly Cycle has failed. Many will see this as a double bottom if the USD bounces soon, but this is bearish from a Cycle perspective. This confirms for me that the USD will continue to move lower over time.

I was working on an update but LikesMoney came out with a freebie 😉

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2016/05/02/the-dollar-this-changes-everything/

Here are my 6 year and 27 year charts:

Here is an update on my last Bond post:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=368153

TLT now appears to be bouncing out of either a Trading Cycle low or a half-cycle low. In either case, TLT has had a failed Trading Cycle here and that usually starts the move into the next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low (see my first chart). During an IC Low price usually tests and breaks the blue IC uptrend line on my first chart.

The second chart shows TLT’s 3 year Uptrend (Blue line). Note that the current IC Uptrend line on my first chart is also the same as my 3 year Uptrend line on my second, longer term chart. So any break of the current IC uptrend also breaks the 3 year Uptrend as well (similar to what has happened with the USD).

The second chart also shows a potential double top in play that looks somewhat similar to what we saw with the USD. My red fork on the second chart is somewhat speculative but if TLT breaks down below my blue 3 year uptrend then the Fork should take control.

That red fork on TLT is also similar to the speculative fork I posted on the USD in the fall of 2015 that no one wanted to believe.

Added: Interest rates also move in 60 year cycles (30 up & 30 down) dating back to the time of Hammurabi. 😉

1985-6 to 2015-16 is 30 years, so I think rates will definitely start a long term reversal over the next year. Here are two charts:
1) Chart showing the current 30 year Bond price uptrend from 1990 that started in 1984-85.
2) 2nd chart showing the 60 year interest rate cycle going back several hundred years.

Got any TBT? 🙂

Did Shanghai just blow a hole in the old gold market?

Remember, Shanghai is a physical only exchange and China is now “willing to bid up the price in order to secure physical metal.”

https://goldtadise.com/?p=366774

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1461954811.php

I posted earlier that Gold’s break out of its Pendant would likely tell us where we are with respect to Gold’s Intermediate Cycle. In standard TA, Pendants are often considered consolidation “Half-Way” patterns.

Gold Pendant 2.0

In Bressert’s Cycles we use Trend line breaks to assist locating moves into Cycle Lows, especially for an assets longer term 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle. The next three charts show fractals where my Blue Intermediate Cycle trendiness were never broken and we had less than a 38% retrace often considered the minimum for an IC Low.

I find it ironic that the first two examples below are of the USD during its bull move circa 2014. These are examples of time based consolidation IC Lows which Gold may have just experienced.

Now here is a similar pattern in Gold that makes you go Hmmmm. Has Gold’s Pendant breakout signaled a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle here? I believe it is possible but only Time will Tell. 🙂

Added: Similar Pendant Fractal for Gold’s move out of the 2007 Low.