Crude is making a bullish move here but many of the TA indicators I am looking at on the weekly show we are potentially overbought near term.

The last two ICs topped on week 7 and were left translated (failed) making a lower IC Low. We are now on week 13 and about where we might see a move into a half cycle low. A higher Intermediate Cycle Low in the July/Aug timeframe, however, would be an additional signal that Crude has ended its Bear Market.

First two charts show the bullish move over different time scales.

Screenshot 2016-05-14 15.52.11 Screenshot 2016-05-14 16.11.17

Despite the ugly fundamentals for Crude, a higher Intermediate Cycle low in the July/Aug timeframe would help signal that the broader CRB is starting to bottom.

(Note: My 3rd chart below mentions “Oversold” but should say “Overbought” in the text box)

Screenshot 2016-05-14 15.23.08 Screenshot 2016-05-14 15.42.45

Added:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-15/oil-drillers-betting-three-month-crude-rally-is-nearing-the-end