A year ago August, I posted an article warning that the stock market would fall in July 2024 and keep falling pretty much right through to 2030. The analysis was based on Crude Oil futures prices of a decade ago as the insight into what was happenng today. Read on for a refresher since we are clearly taking a market tumble at the moment and the timing band has lined up much as expected.

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Will the financial system really collapse as so many people fear? I have asked myself that question many times recently as the shrieking sirens of doom and gloom have nearly reached a crescendo in the alternative media and calls to buy precious metals are so numerous and insistent we might imagine gold is literally garlic against blood sucking Vampires.

There is a technical case to be made however. And it validates the theory of an inevitable collapse. The thing is that after a review I have concluded its suggestive of something deeper and more profound that even the biggest worriers are expressing. The worriers may not therefore be the lunatic fringe this time around. It appears they will be correct but are just a little early with the call. You can be the judge of that yourself though. What I will try to do is present the evidence of how our future is already encoded into the charts and in the process attempt to shed some new light on the timing of the great reckoning.

This post will run a little longer than usual. First off I need to set out the basis for the conversation to get this into focus. So without delay let me just get to the nuts of the charts. Some years back, a well known fellow technician by the name of Tom McLellan made an unusual discovery. He found a way to forecast equity markets like the DOW and S&P by using the price of crude oil ten years prior. He published a couple articles to back up his claim, one of which I will link here to get you up to speed. In them he noted this was a type of analog indicator that has been working reliably for past 100 years and he produced a chart showing the overlay of crude oil prices versus the S&P with a roughly ten year lag.

Here is a link to one of Tom’s articles on the subject: https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2019/08/tom-mcclellan-crude-oils-10yea-701.html

The quick conclusion of this concept is that if you know what oil prices did ten years back you will have a very good idea of what stock markets will be doing today, give or take a few months. So with that information in hand lets start with our first chart which is the Price per barrel of Crude Oil for the years of 1900 to 1945. You will note immediately that crude oil peaked in 1920 almost exactly ten years before the DOW peaked in the fall of 1929. What followed of course was the great crash of 29. Just note the peaks are separated by 10 years. That’s what this analog is all about.

So this is some of the clear evidence of Tom’s premise that a 10 year lag exists and it is unquestionably interesting from a technical perspective. Those of you who follow oil closely will immediately notice that what happened in 2020 (a hundred years forward from the crude oil crash of 1920) is that we saw WTI Crude futures literally drop below zero during April that year. It is the inversion of the 1920 event which saw a sharp peak as shown in my chart. So the suggestion is that ten years from now in 2030 we will see an explosive move higher in stock markets and hurrah everything is fine and the world is saved.

But not so fast. The key point is that oil prices dropped below zero!

That is the reset in my view. Its literally the month and year when the reset takes place. That 2020 event was the formal trigger that told us when to expect an end to the current financial system and the start of the new ten years later. As you will recall, April 2020 was about when the Corona lockdowns got underway worldwide. Is it possible that Wall Street technicians who are knowledgeable with charts deliberately crashed oil below zero as a time marker for the beginning of a new Bull in 2030? This is where the story gets conspiratorial. I will do my best not to get into the weeds of it much but you draw your own conclusions. How in hell did oil fall below zero and on which planet was that even possible without artificial interventions?

Anyway, what we really need to focus on with equities is the key period of time between now and then which will be the mirror opposite of the Roaring 20’s. So lets stick with the current period and try to avoid the impending market pitfalls while leaving the wild speculations to others.

And that period is starting very soon indeed as you will note from my next chart which suggests a market crash beginning sometime around June/July 2024 and running for six years through to 2030. Keep in mind you are looking at a chart of historical Crude Oil prices and they are the forecast analog for what stock markets will do 10 years later. Hopefully my drawing is clear enough on this point. This crash horror will be starting before the November Presidential Elections in other words and if my thesis holds water it means you have as little as 9 month to prepare before the equity wipeout gets underway.

I am calling the impending crashes The Goring 20’s since they will pretty much destroy most accumulated wealth before they have done their work. Goring 20’s rhymes with Roaring 20’s for reference except the connotations are obviously negative. Our period of the 2020’s will be the inverse of what people experienced during the 1920’s as we see the wealth effect run in reverse for many years before possibly concluding with a complete closure of most markets and the destruction of almost all equity value. Yes, stocks can drop to zero too. Just ask the people over at WeWork! Anyway, Blackrock knows all this. That’s why killing stock values here and there does not matter anymore. All of it will be wrecked in the next few years anyway. They can make hay with their agenda while the clock ticks off on the coming meltdown.

By the time its all ended, most pension plans will have been wiped out to zero. No I am not kidding.

 

The good news of course is that should you survive to the other side then you will benefit from an incredible equity market boom as 2030 starts with an explosive move higher. The trick will be to stay solvent until then and not be wiped out like everyone you know.

The end of the period of Financialization should be traumatic for most. No less so than what people felt back in the 1930’s when America entered its Great Depression and the financial system was reset when the credit system corrected and bond markets melted down. What triggers the crash this time is not known to me. All I can say is its on the charts and there is a high probability this is the real deal. The indicator has been working for 100 years already. Why would it stop working now? So be guarded for anything really but above all keep the dates in mind since this is a timing event. Perhaps China’s debt troubles will be the thing that takes us all down, perhaps it will be election meddling or the war in Ukraine or even an attack on Taiwan. We don’t know.

The chart says we are going to start crashing though. And keep crashing for six long years