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Whoopi Goldberg’s opinion is of no interest to me, however, everyone is allowed an opinion in a democratic society. What IS of interest is the increasing quantity of articles “saying the quiet part our loud“. Using Whoopi to sell the “clicks” is irrelevant imo…….
Nice find Goran…thanks
https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/chinese-banks-flee-londons-daily?
Now that Bitcoin has worldwide acceptance, why not introduce Bitgold.
Nick Szabo came up with the idea for Bit Gold prior to Bitcoin. It still involved “mining” but not for actual Gold.
What if there was a secure central depository of audited non-hypothecated Gold on a blockchain. One could present their Bitgold wallet with the appropriate security features for loading on a Worldwide debt card like “WISE” in the local currency. Could be completed online or go to a secure Branch for picking up local currency. DeFi.
If the internet goes down you would have the same concerns as Bitcoin.
It would be the same as carrying a few gold coins but could not be stolen physically.
I like Gold in my possession but for travelling this may be an option.
The other possibility is to purchase Bitgold before you leave your country and when you reach your destination redeem for actual physical gold at a secure branch. No border to cross.
Just a concept.
According to the USGS (US Gov), above and below ground 244,000 metric tons have been discovered.
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-much-gold-has-been-found-world
I believe we will never know the true amount as Gold has been mined for 1000’s of years and no record has been kept in the early years.
China mined a lot of Gold prior to the rise of European Civilization/ Roman Empire.
(I posted this earlier. The book appears to be well documented))
After reading “Gold Warriors” by Sterling and Peggy Seagrave (2003)
the amount of Gold that the Japanese had plundered from the roughly 15 countries in China and SE Asia could have been 200,000+ metric tons and most was hidden in tunnels in the Philippines and some brought back to Japan by 1945. This amount of Gold has been kept secret by the Allies, especially the US. When the OSS was disbanded, the CIA was born. The Nazi and Japanese Gold was seized clandestinely by the CIA to use as a slush fund to enable regime change with off book funds for decades. No one knows how much is still controlled by them.
Much of the hidden Philippine Gold, gems and other valuables were retrieved by the Marcos family for their own personal use.
It may be possible that there are 500,000+ metric tons above ground in 2024. We will never know. Even so, Gold is still the premier asset class.
Something along the lines of the Diamond cartel controlling the supply of cut diamonds on the market to create scarcity.
Dear Tent,
The endless, going at least for two decades plus, effort, that Mr. Moriarty has made to collate and gather all these articles is truly phenomenal.
In fact, just late last night, I read an article by Alchemy Financial: this author or site did not seem familiar to me, hence the curiosity to select this article over the other new ones which I’m still to read.
There’s still so much for me to learn, but why I’m sharing this article is selfish, even childish: I missed out on the great bull run in AG / First Majestic when it ran from under 4.2 on Feb 13th to 5.81 on March 21st.
Now, what was I to do? Simple: wait for a pullback and then enter a tiny position. That much I knew.
I did that and made some great gains quickly. Awesome!
But could I now sit back and not sell AG at all? No!
So, I remembered to take the profit, twice.
Do I have a cost free position in my remaining holdings of AG? Not yet.
The author at Alchemy Financial rhymed with my approach.
The learning is that I’m still looking for a template to apply to the likes of AG, CDE, HL, SVM etc. etc. but more and more and more the picture is getting clearer. Firstly, volume and secondly, the “well-known-name” attribute in these tickers causes different price action than that in the juniors!
And the article explains in painful why the AG of today and the future, might not be the AG of past! Please read with patience, and not bias!
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13O01Lfp7GO056WLztVvSNiKgjjMuihqm/view
I’d like to hear from the great minds at the Tent, where they disagree with Alchemy Financial’s analysis in general and analysis of AG/First Majestic in particular.
Thank you Sir Fully for this great forum.
May God bless us all and protect us from harm.
GL
The ratio has a ways to go but today is shaping up well for a near term explosion higher. If you recall my post from yesterday, to make a definitive break above cloud resistance on the weekly chart in the next 2 weeks, the ratio has to close up over 1.32 (basically the December ’23 peak).
Of course next week is the FOMC meeting and all of its surrounding shenanigans, so expect crazy gyrations, but the fact the ratio is making such a solid move prior to that meeting I think speaks volumes. Maybe the Fed makes an insane announcement, like YCC. It may not even matter at this point since all of the usual correlations have broken down completely since February (e.g., yields, USD and commodities all higher). The fact that the US stock market is red today makes the relative performance of the miners even more impressive. Will the miners snatch defeat from the jaws of victory next week (yet again)? I don’t think so. Everything is in place fundamentally and technically for a massive surge within the next couple of weeks. Let’s go.
It looks like gold & silver are entering into the fun zone. After a brief, expected pause, they are about to launch higher to the next levels of new highs for gold and resistance for silver.
This is occurring while stocks have topped and are heading lower. The metals will attract capital that is fleeing the general stock market, especially the previous high flying tech leaders.
Welcome to THE FUN ZONE!
Listen especially at 25:00 !! Crazy !! After 14th Feb Valentine Chinese People Gold buying frenzy … Chinese Government advises its own citizens to buy Silver instead of gold !!! WOW !!!
HEADSET ON
WHO ARE YOU …WHO WHO WHO WHO ?
LYRICS…sing along in the comments
AND
….WE WON’T GET FOOLED AGAIN ? (Meet the New Boss)
LYRICS in the second comment
Based on the weekly Ichimoku cloud, I believe the $hui:$gold ratio has an opportunity in the near term to rapidly move higher.
The assumption is that penetrating into and/or above an Ichimoku cloud with a horizontal/flat border is unlikely.
The weekly Ichimoku cloud has a couple of vulnerabilities (shown in the blue boxes on the chart), however, the first arising in the first/second week of May. If the ratio doesn’t manage to get above cloud resistance by the second week of May at the latest, I think the next opportunity to get above the cloud resistance will come in August. If we can’t make it back to the 200 week MA by then, we are looking at late 2024 at the earliest. Finally, as with any TA, these rules with respect to cloud resistance are not 100%. That being said, I think if price penetrates the cloud in one of the two boxed regions, the rally is much more likely to stick.
Not predicting that this may happen but we may be seeing the pause.
I’m holding my core.
What do you do when something you have been wanting and waiting to buy goes on sale? You pounce. Today is the day. Since most of us have bought at much lower levels we can still add to our stacks.(I bought a little more silver this morning)
However, the really big thing you can do today is encouraged all your friends, relatives and acquaintances who have hesitated to do so, to get on board, before the train leaves the station. If they wake up and do so at these levels, they will thank you in the months and years to come.
“Gold Warriors” (2003), an interesting book by Sterling and Peggy Seagrave. Big on details and names. One can get lost following the cast of characters.
Allegedly, the Japanese buried the plundered Gold in the Philippines.
As the war came to a close, US Intelligence discovered the looted treasure. President Truman and members of the Intelligence Community kept this secret. They used these unaccountable funds to fight the Cold War, interfere in foreign elections and deploy covert operations all over the World. Any Nazis Gold had the same treatment and was run through Swiss accounts.
It appears to be well documented. No one really knows how much there was or whether it has been exhausted. At the time it was discovered, it was felt that if the hoard was revealed it could collapse the price of Gold ($35usd) that was held in Central Bank reserves. Possibly like the effect the Inca Gold had coming back to Spain centuries ago.
The CIA was funded for 50 years by this off-book asset.
Chris has an addition to the Gold Chart Great Debate
This one is “ambitious”
🙂
Hieken Ashi Candle Chart Quarterly 35 year log scale
THE INTERACTIVE CHART WEBSITE
https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/
……………..Brought to you By………….
………………FARMER VS FULLY…………..
Real Estate is a store of value and so is Gold
here is the Chart…not sure if it is up to date but likely the line goes down further after this latest surge in POG
Your serve Farmer
…over time Gold can be overvalued or undervalued for long periods of time in the lives of the average person. When it is overvalued, it is the flight to safety over other assets. When undervalued, there is a mania occurring in another asset. Many assets that had more value than Gold at one time no longer retain that value ie The Tulip Mania, Beanie Babies, Hunter Biden Artwork, etc.
Instead of arguing over the nominal price, we should look at what an ounce of Gold purchases. As more currency is printed, the price of Gold in that currency rises but does it buy more in that event? No, it eventually finds it’s value and swings from undervalued to overvalued and back.
Holding Gold preserves your purchasing power over longer periods of time (that can be debated of course) but it is the leverage of a well positioned producer that will multiply your wealth. Many mines are just a money pit as most of us have unfortunately discovered at great expense.
To put a target on Price we need to know what is happening to the currency it is measured in. This is beyond my pay grade and I will continue to make some bad decisions but hope that the winners more than make up for the losers.
Lets put up one more gold chart. This time I have a current candle chart of gold. Its a 25 year view using monthly price bars and we are using Gartley Extensions to try and derive where the price will top-out based on price history to date. This is a well used formula and the method has been validated by technical people everywhere with productive results. Sometimes, the target prices are hit within pennies of the estimates. So the validity of the method is not in question although its fair to say there are times when the actual price overshoots and other times when it fails to reach the target highs.
So here you have gold and it is evident that the target line is at 2709.60 which means we are currently within just 309 dollars of the final top on this cycle before price turns around and corrects. You may argue with this method all day long and come up with any excuse why it will be wrong. But it will beat you almost every time.
Gold is nearing a major 25 year top. It is going to break down once it gets there unless it can decisively breech that 2709 line and prove its going higher. It can do so by posting a monthly candle with both the opening and closing price above the line. Lets see what happens next. In the meantime, I will warn you once more that you are just gambling by trying to speculate on prices exceeding the target on a long term basis.
But do as you please. Its no care of mine what you do with your own money!
I cannot recall where I originally found the chart linked here. But I had saved it all these years since I found it so interesting at the time. Its last update was in 1998 when gold still traded for 310 dollars! Anyway I thought today was a good time to trot it out. Sadly I cannot authenticate it or give credit to the original author since its source is lost to time. Maybe someone here also has a copy and knows where it came from.
The interesting aspect of this chart is that the *real* price of gold shown has never exceeded 2400 dollars in the past 600 years. That is noteworthy and somewhat applicable to todays pricing. Have a look and draw your own conclusions. There is certainly a long term resistance line that needs to be overcome before gold will go higher. And according to this chart anyway, gold is indeed in bubble territory. Sorry to have to repeat it but gold is at the top of its long term price range and ripening for a secular reversal as the air finally comes out of the “everything bubble”
Central banks that own gold for an extended period can reap the benefits of their gold revaluation account without having to sell any gold.
Thanks for these Charts Farmer…I have a different interpretation
A Cup and Handle Pattern is Usually very Bullish
AND
Wedge Patterns are Consolidation Patterns…they will always breakout one way or another
I see 4 reversal points so far thats an even number and therefore Bullish …and even if there is a pause at the top line..this being a log chart i bet that line is near 4,000
….
Rest my case
I will see your chart Fully and add two more to cap my point. Both are self explanatory but a few notes are added just in case. These charts come from Macrotrends and are shown on a one hundred year chart. Macrotrends offers its chart users the ability to look at the data in several ways. These include an inflation adjusted option and a logarithmic version. I have selected both options and presented charts here that I think reinforce what I am saying about gold. Namely, that gold is nearing highs from which it will soon retreat.
There is a price ceiling based on golds history. And these charts suggest where the next top will be located. Have a look. You may even come around to my point of view if you stare at these long enough. They are damning. Gold is going to have to put in a strong leap higher in order to break out of its channel and change the future. All things being equal and given that price behaves normally means gold will likely go back into a bear market in 2026.
@ Farmer
I’ll see your chart and raise you one …Quarterly , Log Scale
click to enlight
Here is a yearly chart of gold for you to examine. It is evidence (based upon a common technical approach) that gold has almost reached a top from which the only future movement will be price declines. Everything has a limit. Golds is at the 2.5 standard deviation mark of a yearly chart. That does not mean it cannot shoot higher and put in a spectacular year to finish up this cycle, but it does mean you should think twice before investing too heavily in the stuff because the technicals warn we are near a termination top.
There will not be a lot of love for this post of mine. But I need to write this anyway since too many people have gone goofy over golds recent move yet very few of them have any background in the technical aspects of how price works. So I would like to push back against the euphoria by pointing out a few inconvenient truths.
In the chart below for example we can see that golds price is pretty clearly in a fifth wave move (Elliot) as it stands today. This is based on a hundred year chart. In fact no matter what historical chart we look at, gold is currently nearing the top of its upper range from where it will encounter serious resistance and go no further.
I am not putting a number on the actual final top in this post. Rather I just want to point out in general terms that we are nearer the top of a terminal upper range than a bottom and that structurally, golds upward advance in nominal terms is therefore fairly limited by the nature of its historical patterns.
The only gains possible beyond a certain point will be those acquired by outright currency devaluation. Since gold is priced in dollars it may seem obvious to some readers that a soaring gold price is guaranteed. But again, this whole idea of an imminent collapsing US Dollar is another faulty idea that is going to hit a brick wall soon for most people since it too is conjecture based and not well conceived.
For the moment, just keep in mind that gold is putting in a topping pattern now. Odds will soon favour a structural decline in the absence of a major dollar devaluation. So take care if you are betting the whole house on gold going to the moon and please do not fall for the snake oil sales pitches or allow yourself to be deluded by market prophets who are really no better than used car salesmen!
