GOLD : HOUSE RATIO
Real Estate is a store of value and so is Gold
here is the Chart…not sure if it is up to date but likely the line goes down further after this latest surge in POG
Your serve Farmer
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Let me get back to you tomorrow. Its already getting late in my part of Africa.
Scary though…..because the chart will be probably resolved with a housing bust. A big housing bust.
Sorry, let me take that comment back. I got it reversed. The chart will resolve with the price of gold dropping sharply. Homes are currently cheap when priced in gold. But with gold falling in half for example the number of ounces needed to buy the average home would rise dramatically. This chart supports my thesis that gold is in a bubble.
Farmer, please keep it up with your gold charts and your position. This has become an important conversation between you and FGC. THANKS for your efforts….
100% concur — excellent discussion!
You bet. Glad I could be of help to anyone willing to look. You won’t find a similar opinion anywhere else on the web btw. Bullishness in gold is so all encompassing that the bears have all gone to hibernation since the bulls are shouting them down! But as we all know….when everyone is on the same side of the boat…they will all get wet when it rolls over.
Thanks brother Kewl2
Agree this is a good discussion. They say if everyone is thinking alike, nobody is thinking.
I came across another valuation for gold that basically said an ounce is worth about a week and a half’s wages for a skilled laborer. At $40/hour, that would say gold is currently worth about $2,400.
What is the source of your gold/house ratio chart Fully? It looks like it might be interactive.
Sir Fully,
You made my Friday with this chart! Are you a mind-reader or what?
If it wasn’t for this chart, how would my dreams of buying a second piece of real estate come true?
(i) I’m in no hurry for gold to skyrocket, even though I’m a permabull
(ii) The juniors are in very strong hands. As evident by their pathetic volume. The price swings in juniors over the past few months are LESSER than some big Nasdaq names!
(iii) The ETFs, mid-tiers and the seniors are “keep ringing the cash register” vehicles for me.
(iv) I always dreamt of the day when I could swap gold for silver when GSR is high, and swap reverse when GSR is low. Same analogy would apply to housing methinks.
So, when gold peaks, even intermediate-cycle-wise, and as rates skyrocket, pieces of this real estate versus gold chart are falling into place by themselves. And, did I say that I’m in no hurry?
What am I missing?
GL
I told the story a few years ago of my elderly German neighbour who lived through the Weimar Hyper-inflationary period. He left Germany as a young man after he was wiped out after WW1. I was too young to ask about what life was like there. I loved his stories of how paper money was garbage.
I knew nothing of Gold and Silver at that age. Even a penny would buy enough Candy to rot your teeth on a regular basis.
As I exchanged nickel alloyed (Mid-1968) dimes, quarters and fifty-cent pieces for the silver based coins that I hoarded, he would tell me that at some time I would see the value. I believe he was trying to tell me that in times of currency stress, gold and silver keep their value.
From 1968 to today, gold and silver have had a wild ride. The inflationary times in Canada of the 70’s lead to a blow-off peak in 1980. In hindsight I should have sold my hoard.
A silver dollar was worth approx $45. I believe silver was overvalued.
My $20 Centennial Gold coins (Paid about $40 each, not an ounce) may have been worth $600.
Thus in 12 years I would have done quite well if you do the math.
Gold and silver would have proved their usefulness.
The next major rise into 2011 was the aftermath of the GFC. Same preservation of wealth.
In times where other assets perform well your gold and silver are for when TSHTF.
This chart shows the 1980 and 2011 peaks. In between we swing between undervalued to overvalued.
HERE IS THE SITE
AND IT IS INTERACTIVE
https://www.longtermtrends.net/real-estate-gold-ratio/