Loading ...upwards explosion in miners vs gold ratio soon?
Based on the weekly Ichimoku cloud, I believe the $hui:$gold ratio has an opportunity in the near term to rapidly move higher.
The assumption is that penetrating into and/or above an Ichimoku cloud with a horizontal/flat border is unlikely.
The weekly Ichimoku cloud has a couple of vulnerabilities (shown in the blue boxes on the chart), however, the first arising in the first/second week of May. If the ratio doesn’t manage to get above cloud resistance by the second week of May at the latest, I think the next opportunity to get above the cloud resistance will come in August. If we can’t make it back to the 200 week MA by then, we are looking at late 2024 at the earliest. Finally, as with any TA, these rules with respect to cloud resistance are not 100%. That being said, I think if price penetrates the cloud in one of the two boxed regions, the rally is much more likely to stick.
Good idea here to be mindful of both bullish and bearish options.
The EW folks are almost all looking at a 1 up now abc for 2 down, ahead of a bullish third wave move. Validating your optimism.
Probably need to see more downside to complete the c of 2.
At higher degrees, NEM and ABX are still struggling to get liftoff.
I see best in class miners doing well, but the others look like nothing has happened yet. There are also some concerning overbought conditions …. in a strong bull, these get overrun, but we’re still in the ‘not yet verified’ status on that.
So yeah, FOMC could spark the decision on which way to run.
Agreed.
The ratio has been dropping since 1995 and has flatlined since 2016. That sideways action has allowed the declining 600 WMA to catch down to price (which is finally coming into frame in the above chart). It could be the ratio was just consolidating the massive losses made during the bear and is ready for another leg lower.
I am obviously not banking on that, but there is 30 years of bearish price action in the ratio that has made fools of mining stock investors–one would be an idiot to think a bullish explosion in the ratio is guaranteed.
Thanks, Nautilus