There will not be a lot of love for this post of mine. But I need to write this anyway since too many people have gone goofy over golds recent move yet very few of them have any background in the technical aspects of how price works. So I would like to push back against the euphoria by pointing out a few inconvenient truths.

In the chart below for example we can see that golds price is pretty clearly in a fifth wave move (Elliot) as it stands today. This is based on a hundred year chart. In fact no matter what historical chart we look at, gold is currently nearing the top of its upper range from where it will encounter serious resistance and go no further.

I am not putting a number on the actual final top in this post. Rather I just want to point out in general terms that we are nearer the top of a terminal upper range than a bottom and that structurally, golds upward advance in nominal terms is therefore fairly limited by the nature of its historical patterns.

The only gains possible beyond a certain point will be those acquired by outright currency devaluation. Since gold is priced in dollars it may seem obvious to some readers that a soaring gold price is guaranteed. But again, this whole idea of an imminent collapsing US Dollar is another faulty idea that is going to hit a brick wall soon for most people since it too is conjecture based and not well conceived.

For the moment, just keep in mind that gold is putting in a topping pattern now. Odds will soon favour a structural decline in the absence of a major dollar devaluation. So take care if you are betting the whole house on gold going to the moon and please do not fall for the snake oil sales pitches or allow yourself to be deluded by market prophets who are really no better than used car salesmen!