THE EARLY VOTING AND MAIL IN VOTING IS JUST ABOUT FINISHED NOW
COMPARING THE EARLY VOTE NATIONWIDE IN 2026 TO THE VOTE NATIONWIDE IN 2022 ( THE LAST MIDTERM)

NOW….NOTE HALF THE STATES REGISTER THEIR VOTERS BY PARTY ( DEM , REP AND INDIE )
THOSE STATES VOTE BY PARTY NUMBERS ARE PROVIDED BY THEIR SECRETARY OF STATE NOW AT THE END OF EARLY VOTING THIS.. IS SOLID..IT TELLS US HOW MUCH OF THE VOTE WAS BY PARTY REGISTRATION ..IT DOESNT HAVE THE ACTUAL VOTE COUNT..HOWEVER MOST PARTISANS VOTE FOR THEIR PARTY 95% +
THE STATES THAT DO NOT REGISTER BY PARTY ARE ANALYSED BY A BEVY OF EARLY VOTE ANALYSTS. THIS HAS BECOME A SERIOUS PROJECT BY NUMBER CRUNCHERS ON BOTH SIDES…THE NUMBERS IN THS CHART ARE BASED ON BEST ESTIMATE OF PARTISANSHIP IN EACH OF THE NON REGISTERING STATES …THERE IS SCIENTIFIC METHOD THOUGH…THEY TAKE THE COUNTY LEVEL VOTES FOR EACH COUNTY . IT IS KNOW HOW THE COUNTY VOTED AS A WHOLE IN 2022…..SO IF 5000 PEOPLE VOTE IN A TRUMP +20 COUNTY THE IMPLIED SPLIT IS 6000 REDS AND 4000 BLUE AND OF COURSE VICE VERSA….THEY ALSO LOOK AT DATA SHOWING WHICH INDIVIDUALS VOTED IN A RED PRIMARY AND WHICH IN A BLUE PRIMARY AND PLOT THAT STAT IN TOO….SO THESE NUMBERS ARE OFFICIAL AFTER HALF OF THE VOTES IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY ARE IN ….THE ACTUAL VOTE COUNT IS NOT RELEASED OF COURSE BUT THIS IS WHO VOTED
NOW TO THE POINT
IN 2022 THE EARLY IN PERSON / MAIL VOTE WAS ABOUT 50% OF THE TOTAL VOTE
SO…AS YOU CAN SEE THE SPLITS ARE ALMOST THE SAME AFTER EARLY VOTING THIS YEAR THAT THEY WERE IN 2022
D+ 11 VS D+ 10 …
AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THE HALF OF THE ELECTORATE WHO VOTED ON ELECTION DAY IN 2022 WAS R+ 12
WHICH MEANS IN 2022 THE FINAL ELECTORATE VOTE WAS R+2 ( 51-49 NATIONWIDE )
NOW OF COURSE THIS IS A MIDTERM SO THE NATIONWIDE RESULTS DO NOT ELECT ANYONE BECAUSE THESE ELECTIONS ARE 50 SEPERATE ELECTIONS …NOT A NATIONAL ONE
HOWEVER THE HEADLINE WHOLE COUNTRY POLLS HAVE BEEN ON AVERAGE D+8 OR SO….
IT HAS BEEN IMPLIED AND POSTED BY THE NYT THAT THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SHIFT OF ABOUT 35 HOUSE SEATS TO THE BLUES AND A CLOSE SENATE FLIP TO 51-49 BLUE
HOWEVER THEY ALSO SAY THAT A POLLING MISS BY 2 POINTS TAKES THE SENATE FLIP OUT OF PLAY BUT STILL A BLUE HOUSE
A MISS BY 4 POINTS MAKES THE HOUSE CLOSE AND KEEPS THE SENATE EASILY RED
AI MISS BY 6+ AND THE REDS KEEP BOTH CHAMBERS
AN EVEN ELECTORATE AFTER THE ELECTION DAY VOTES ARE TALLIED WOULD MEAN A 10 POINT MISS !!
THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY NUMBER BASED ON THESE NUMBERS SO FAR
TWO MORE THINGS TO CONSIDER THOUGH….
1….THOSE 20% NON PARTY VOTERS….WILL LEAN ONE WAY OR THE OTHER…AND IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS THEY TEND TO VOTE FOR THE PARTY OUT OF POWER BY SOME MARGIN WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT
HOWEVER THIS IS STATE SPECIFIC THIS YEAR
EG..MANY MORE JEWS AND BLACKS WHO HAVE VOTED EVERY CYCLE FOR THE BLUES ARE VOTING RED IN MICHIGAN OR NOT VOTING FOR A SENATOR AT ALL..BECAUSE THE DEM REP HATES JEWS AND BLACKS AND IS NOT AMBIGUOUS ABOUT IT
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2….A % OF REDS CAN BE PERSUADED TO VOTE BLUE AND VICE VERSA BY LOCAL CIRCUMSTANCES
EG…IN TEXAS SOME RINO INFLUENCED REPUBLICANS WANT TO SEE PAXTON FAIL AS THEY ARE PISSED HE BEHEADED CORNYN IN THE PRIMARIES…SO THEY CAMPAIGN FOR AND VOTE FOR TALAFREAKO
BOTTOM LINE THERE IS NO BLUE TSUNAMI , NO BLUE WAVE , WE ARE LOOKING AT A COMPETITIVE MIDTERM LIKE 2022
NOTE IN 2022 THE REDS WERE EXPECTING A RED WAVE ….WHICH ENED UP TO BE A MEAR TRICKLE.. CLOSE BUT WINS IN BOTH CHAMBERS .
FOOTNOTE 1 : TEXAS HAS BY FAR THE HIGHEST INCREASE IN THE EARLY VOTE COMAPRED TO 2022…OF ALL STATES…WHICH BODES WELL FOR THAT STATEF YOU ARE ROOTING FOR PAXTON
FOOTNOTE 2 : ONE STAT ALL THE BUZZ IN THE EARLY VOTE ANALYSIS SPACE IS THAT THE 18 TO 29 YEAR OLDS ARE STRONGLY DEMOCRATS …BY A LARGE MARGIN…BUT THEY HAVE HARDLY COME OUT TO VOTE THUS FAR COMPARED TO 2022……WHILE THE 65+ CROWD ARE STRONGLY REPUBLICAN…MORE THAN EVER THIS YEAR …AND THEY ARE VOTING IN HUGE NUMBERS…UNPRECIDENTED ACTUALLY. ONE ANALYST POINTS OUT THAT THIS HAS BEEN TRUMPS STRATEGY…STRONGLY APPEAL TO THE BOOMERS AND LET THE DEMS DSA COMMUNISTS STRONGLY APPEAL TO THE GEN Z / MILLENIALS WHO ARE IN GENERAL A LOT LESS LIKELY TO VOTE. MEANWHILE CHARLEY KIRK’S OUTFIT TURNING POINT STRENGTHENS THIS GROUP BY GETTING OUT THE VOTE FROM CONSERVATIVE KIDS
IPSO FACTO…NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY …MASSIVELY REDUCED DRUG PRICES (TRUM RX)…TRUMP ACCOUNTS FOR THE GRANDKIDS…TRUMPS VOICED SUPPORT OF KEEPING HOUSE PRICES HIGH…AND OF COURSE BORDER AND LAW AND ORDER…ALL TURN THE BOOMERS ON…NOTWITHSTANDING THE AWFLs and their gay betta husbands
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SO NOW …AMERICAN GOLDTENTERS AND EXTENDED FAMILIES AND FRIENDS GOTV ( GET OUT THE VOTE) …BE A PART OF HISTORY
THIS HAS BEEN YOUR GOLDTENT MIDTERM UPDATE
NOW BACK TO OUR REGULAR SCHEDULED MYSTERY MAYHEM AND MISERY