Surf City… CTL

Regarding CTL…. I bought today’s sell-off, in front of the ex-div date, seems like a no-brainer short term.

The turn-around story is intriguing, and you present this as a long-term buy and hold, but I’m wondering what concerns you have regarding a dividend cut at some point.

I’d appreciate any perspective you’re willing to offer.  Thanks!

 

Some USD charts and EW forecasts

From observing the US$ decline in previous periods (2002-2004), there are parallels with current period. From high to first interim bottom, the US$ declined 16 points in 2002 and afterwards rebounded with 6 points. (see April 2002, from +/-120 to +/-104 and rebound to +/-110)

 

Right now it seems we are in the same situation: decline with 16 points from +/-104 to +/-88 and rebound to +/-94, around current level. So it is very much possible we are nearing the end of this $ bear market rally and PM weakness

Apparently Avi has the same target for a possible top in US$:

https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/p/analysis/DXY-Final-Squiggles-Of-Current-Rally-201805254720022.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=public-post&utm_term=Avi&utm_content=4720022

 

If  his thesis is right, it will be time to sell all PM’s again by Mid 2019, so  I doubt share prices will be that higher by then. It could take more time for a true bull market in PM shares, maybe in 2020 after his next forecasted bear market rally from 80 to 95 level?

I do however not agree with AVI his EW chart as previous bear markets in the US$ always lasted 34-36 months as previous shown on this forum so bear market in US$ should last till end of 2019 and the bear market rallies were never stronger than 6-7 points! If history is any guide we should go down 12-13 points next decline towards the 80-82 level.

Money ?

I repeat…Is anybody making any money this year ( or last year ) in these god forsaken markets ?

Thank goodness I didn’t give up the day job

sheesh

THE Gold Chart

One Chart says it ALL for Gold in USD

IF we break up thru this sharply declining wedge…we will likely get a strong move to the top of the range again

IF we break below the Bottom LINE ..Well….you know !

WTIC charts…

Start with a 15 minute DRIP chart…
IHS reversal…

WTIC daily…

GTX daily…

WTIC monthly complete with negative divergence…

OIH weekly…

Also, XOP and XES daily are ready to dump…

Eagle, Plunger: thoughts on SCO, DWT, etc ??

I have monthlies and weeklies turning, finally.
and only the dailies look tentative so far.
One more minor new high?

Here’s one EW take:

https://newsshit.tk/2018/05/23/long-term-crude-oil-price-pattern-nears-terminal-point-2/

More Debt

Trump’s 2019 Budget Underestimated New Debt by $2.3 Trillion, CBO Says

Remember President Trump’s 2019 budget — that big document released in February and then immediately dismissed or ignored? Well, a new analysis released Thursday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office finds that the president’s proposal won’t rein in rising deficits like the White House claims.

  • CBO estimates that, over the 10 years from 2019 to 2028, the Trump budget request would cut the deficit by $2.9 trillion compared to the current baseline. The White House estimated that the deficit reduction over that time would total $5.2 trillion.
  • The White House had estimated that the deficit would be $450 billion in 2027 and $445 billion in 2028. CBO, by contrast, sees deficits of $965 billion and $1.1 trillion for those years under the Trump budget.
  • In all, CBO says Trump’s budget would result in cumulative deficits of $9.5 trillion over the next decade compared to $7.2 trillion estimated by the White House.
  • Under the president’s budget, federal debt held by the public would rise from about 78 percent of GDP this year to 86 percent in 2028. That’s lower than the 96 percent CBO projects in its current baseline, but higher than the 73 percent the White House had estimated.

The bottom line: The big differences between CBO’s numbers and those from the White House Office of Management and Budget are mostly the result of vastly different economic assumptions, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget: “OMB projects real GDP growth averaging 3 percent over the next decade while CBO’s projects an average of 1.8 percent. Largely as a result, CBO estimates $1.95 trillion less in revenue than OMB – which constitutes 85 percent of the total difference over 2019 to 2028.”

Rambus GLD Update

https://rambus1.com/2018/05/24/gld-update-270/

More cracks developing

https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1126745

XAU