Been an Idiot

I remember well thinking everything will come to an end soon starting way back 30 years ago or so, give or take a decade.  It cost me my retirement. It continued with the explosion in gold after 2008 and gold stocks. Whoops! Tanked again. My friends became rich off blue chip stocks while I looked like a fool trusting in gold and silver. Anyone who hopes for getting rich quick with the miners is being as foolish as me. My wife thinks contrarianism is a fool’s game. Gold bugs might be right one day, but that will be for our children to discover, if they have enough by then to invest by then and haven’t listened to dad, the f**king nitwit.

Video: Near Term Outlook for Gold & Gold Stocks

Gary Savage

For those of you who don’t know it, Mr. Savage has closed his Public Blog which will continue, he says, only to paying subscribers. As the blog closed, he was very bullish on stocks and pretty neutral on the PMs. He will also completely fold his tent after the market blows its top in the yet to be determined  future and will only take monthly subscriptions pending his exit  from the business of pontificating.

Using The Indicators

I think we’re going to see a sharp move up in gold price soon. There could still be some downside (maybe $30-$50), but the clues are there in the technical indicators. This is what I’m seeing (notes on each chart should explain everything).


It may come across that I’m a bull, no matter what, but I’m not. This is my honest interpretation of what I’m seeing. It could be completely wrong, of course, but it’s my honest view.

Heads Up Goldtent: A Moment of Truth is Upon Us

I’m writing this post because I think we could be close to a significant breakout point in the metals and also in yields. If I’m right, it might not happen as soon as this week, but given that the Fed meeting is on Wednesday it would make sense for the turn to occur before the week is out. Let’s start off looking at bond yields.

As you can see, the ten year bond yield has already broken out of a large inverse head and shoulders pattern, and appears to be in the process of backtesting that neckline. The 30 year yield has not yet broken out but appears to be gathering energy to make a run for it soon. You can calculate the price objectives for these patterns and consider the implications on your own.

The metals and miners are in a similar situation. I think gold could print below $1300 next week, but shouldn’t remain there for more than a couple of days. The reason I say that is because the miners are again testing the bottom rail of a year long consolidation pattern, which I expect will ultimately hold, even though the battle has been fierce. I think the GDX could dip below that rail early in the week to shake out weak hands, only to close the week above it, and then make a run over the next few weeks in a quest to break through the top rail, which I think it will do the next time it’s tested.

I am what many would consider a long term permabull, so I am biased in my view that this bottom rail in the GDX will hold. If it doesn’t, then the waiting game will continue.

One last word on the Dow/gold ratio. It’s much too soon to say for sure, but it looks to me like it may have formed a double top in December and January and is now starting its long descent down. That is not to say I’m bearish on the Dow, only that I think gold will outperform it in spades going forward if the ratio has indeed topped.

That is my view at the moment. I have been wrong many times before. Things don’t always play out the way you think they’re going to or how you think they should. Best wishes to you all, and good luck.

Hallucinations of a drunken silver bull

Hallucinations are sensations that appear to be real but are created within the mind….but it seems to look like a bull market?


My opinion

Call me a Perma Bull…

Bob is ready to make a Gr*dd*y “around the apex” move…

My own opinion…Not his..Just his quote…God rest his sole on Goldtent…


NV Gold (nvx.v)

From .20 to .74 this last month, most of which was last week.
Confusion with NVO and its rumored inclusion in gdxj ? Or just coincidence?