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Has been a dog…now a pony

Nice Move today

I thought I´d post a quarterly $VIX chart I have been sitting on for quite a while.

As you know, I still believe that we are in for some kind of a blow off in SM before we can get one in PM. And I have said that I expect to see at least one rather severe pull back/correction on the way to that blow off in SM, see link below for this reasoning.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=407586

The chart below is my ultimate long term quarterly $VIX. And it shows a massive picture perfect red cycle with a very probable FBO below the black support line right at the cycle low, plus a large blue falling wedge that calls for a large down move in SM. I think it clearly shows that this pull back/correction will happen. What it does not say is if we get it this quarter or one of the following quarters. One thing is for sure though, there is not very much room left in that blue falling wedge.

If that chart above is linked to my $USD and $GOLD chart posted further below today, then we will get that move this quarter I would think. That is what I have been saying for a while now, that many charts may be setting themselves up for a synced larger move.

See my Big Picture Series roadmap posts for where we are and where we are going, updated collected list linked below.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=407909
I have 100+ roadmap charts in these posts that are all on track.

Expect correction 50 to 60%.

On the past similar corrections have happen. Noront ???

Discovery and Exploration junior opportunity

NOVO:

My last update post on the commodities bull market contained a healthy collection of links on previous posts, explaining my bull commmodities case which I have been posting on for about a year now, see link below. One link that should be added to that list is my Big Picture Series on Commodities which can be found in the link at the bottom in this post.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=413379
In the post linked above you can see how those inverse h&s´/expanding falling wedges below relate to my 45 year $CRB chart, and to my 220 year commodities index chart, and that is a must really as I see it if one wants to understand where we are and where we are going.

In the post linked above I showed that we had BO for my large blue inverse h&s/expanding falling wedge on my daily $CRB line chart. Now we have a more clear BO also, on the weekly candle chart, below to the right. To the left below we have the BO I posted on when it happened, my beautiful blue inverse h&s/expanding falling wedge on RJI, which is the more balanced commodity index. Note that RJI has already BT. And note that both tagged their EMA30w.

See my Big Picture Series roadmap posts for where we are and where we are going, updated collected list linked below. I have 100+ roadmap charts in these posts that are all on track.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=407909

Update here on my synced BT take for $GOLD and $USD. For the first post on this synced take see link below.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=413514

We got the BT for $GOLD that I was loooking for and not only that, it was picture perfect to my support line which means that it was in the right place from the beginning. Note that it also tagged EMA30w during the BT.

For $USD I still feel that it does not feel strong, a view I have had since I called the top back in Jan 17 and then right after called a PO of 80. I see a possible purple bear flag/expanding rising wedge right on the now support line, soon to be resistance line. SC doesn´t want to keep the lines for this purple pattern exactly where I want them on this chart but I think you see what I am aiming for. The BT for $USD is hard but that is to be excpected in this vital situation I would say.
And a flag right on a trend line usually means that the following move will be strong. Also, a failed move in one direction (the strong BT) often produces a strong move in the opposite direction (my move down to 80).

Note in the chart for $USD above that I see this bottom in Sept below the now support line as the late YCL, and I see it as we got a very stretched/lengthened YC. This makes sense to me also as I see the cycles for most major currencies as quite distorted at this point.

And for $USD, as the chart shows, I am now looking for a shortened YC in order to compensate for the stretched one we just had. I am also looking for a very left translated, very bearish next YC that takes us down to my PO of circa 80.

See my Big Picture Series roadmap posts for where we are and where we are going, updated collected list linked below. I have 100+ roadmap charts in these posts that are all on track.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=407909

If You Like Geometry.

You’ll Like This Scenario

2017 looks like it will be deemed in hindsight … a GOOD year in Gold

It started the year at 1120 .

This chart postulates down to 1260 by Dec / Jan….then up to new highs in the New Year.

Watching the gold channel of 2017…so far a thing of beauty.

Slightly different scenario…with 6 month cycle.

Entry at .618 pullback or wait until Fisher cross, Stoch RSI cross above 20, RSI cross above 50.

Target around 21.2 or into the declining trendline

USD Intermediate Cycle update