1867 SPX might have been the low to be followed by a 5th wave up to 2200+…

before a larger correction in October-December…

 

“If we take the minimum Primary V target of SPX 2214-2219 it is possible this bull market could complete during one uptrend and this year”…

Another possible scenario.

 

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/29/weekend-update-515/

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Crude’s recent jump with Fib retracements

WTI 60 recent move with fib retracements
[ WTI 60 recent move with fib retracements ]

I can’t believe how well this thing fits the recent move in crude.  Kinda eerie.  I didn’t massage it or anything, I just clicked on the low and clicked on the high and the lines appeared as they are here.

I can see how if one was to assign the brown line (.236) to the first level as it was being formed, the other projected levels would have provided a somewhat objective forecast of future price action.  After the retest of the .5 level (confirming it) the top at 1.00 would have been a pretty likely price objective and earned a 30% gain with UWTI.

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MONTHLY CHARTATHON

Traders zoom in to the daily hourly and minute charts to get an edge

BUT….we tend to forget the BIG PICTURE SOMETIMES

ZOOM OUT

THESE 20 YEAR MONTHLY CHARTS SHOW SOME SHOULDA WOULDA COULDA MOVES THAT WILL KNOCK YOUR SOXS OFF

ONE MORE DAY IN THIS MONTH BUT THIS WILL DO .

………………………………………….

SOX (Semiconductors)…BULLISH

sox
………………………………………………..

BTK (Biotec) …..WOW…TOO LATE TO THE PARTY ? WHILE YOU WERE FOCUSED ON PMS IN 2009 !!!

btk
…………………………………………………….

XLF (FINANCIAL SECTOR)…METHINKS THIS WEEK WAS NOT JUST A FLASH !

xlf
………………………………………………………

XLE (ENERGY SECTOR) …TOPPED 1 YEAR AGO…LONG WAY DOWN

xle
……………………………………………………….

IYR (REAL ESTATE INDEX)…THEY ARE NOT MAKING ANY MORE LAND…STILL STRONG ?

IYR
…………………………………………………………….

GOLD ……ARE YOU SURE THE BOTTOMZ INN ?

gold
……………………………………………………..

XAU…….MAJOR GOLD MINERS…BUY AND HOLD !!! ?

xau

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DUST 60 with possible EW projections…

dust

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A repeat of 2011?

tmp_15096-sc130958105

Notice that we crashed end of August 2011 and there was a small rebound yet TVIX continued to rise.   We retested the lows again in September.  I bet that replays now unless something changes.

 

1

GDX Observation – A Market “Tell”?

The more I look at the action this week on the GDX across the BBands, the more I think that was the market “Tell”.  I had remarked earlier this week that I’d never seen such a move before and I think we are going to learn just how significant that was.  With a powerful move to the top of the BBand, there should have been at least a pause coming down at the midpoint, from a statistical standpoint…and more commonly a decent bounce.  This time the bounce didn’t come until after prices dipped below what should have been a really solid bounce from a huge bull flag where huge volumes were traded.  I cant find any other example of this type of move.  Typically, that base should have been a springboard for at least a lame bounce.  Now we find today’s close at resistance posed by both the top of the base and the Bband midpoint.  This tells (or suggests to) me no new investment came in when priced dropped to the base this time, and in fact the price movement backtesting across the base is only being used so traders can get out even and bail, and every bit of market rise that backfilled the thin green gappy zone was dominated by short covering as opposed to new investment.

If prices do somehow close back above the base and Bband midpoint, then my analysis is totally wrong and traders are actually putting new money to work and prices should continue to rise, even if just bearishly.

http://schrts.co/6xNCme

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Bigger Picture Remains Down for Gold & Miners

Gold up days are  so much weaker volume than down days.

Gold

Gold lost $26 this week and note the volume pattern:

GoldWeekly

GLD chart suggests bearish flag in a down channel in shorter term. Note bearish volume pattern.

GLD

NEM weekly….down 5.3% this week on monster volume.  Looks at last several weeks volume spikes….all red.

NEM

Nice fork fits on gold…..wild guess but $1013 by Nov?

Gold1013

HUI down 8.3% this week.  Wake me up when resistance starts becoming support!

HUI

GDX – this looks bullish?  Prices finally managed to slip back inside the Bband today.

GDX

GDX weak relative to gold and showing bearish structure.

GLDGDX

Lots of miners looking like this.  very bearish structure.

GOLD Bear

This is a bullish weekly chart? Monster volume, down more than 7%

GDX

DUST has backfilled a thinly traded zone and is ready to move back up now.

DUST

1

UVXY CONSOLIDATION…

svxy

SVXY INVERSE VIX…WATCHING BOTH SVXY AND UVXY for direction

0

NUGT 2 Using the Stoch 144 to help determine direction after a formation is spotted…

The odds were NUGT would break to the upside because the stoch 144 was above 50 denoting strong internal momentum…

Incorporate this indicator in your minute charts to assist…Also, DUST 2 had a sym triangle in the making but broke down at the same time NUGT 2 broke up…The stoch 144 was below 50

nugt2

0

GDX

Anyone who buys support and sells resistance would be selling GDX here.

GDX

http://schrts.co/tM9c5H

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JNUG

Here’s what I think is going on now.  We got the bounce I was expecting but I traded it miserably.  Now I think we have a rejection at the lower rail….former support becoming resistance.

JNUG

http://schrts.co/KQVElq

0

Silver Backtesting

SILVER

0

GDM Update from Rambus

http://rambus1.com/?p=43497

0

Any Charts on WTIC tonight…looks like a breakout…

WTIC

0

GLD was not bullish today…

GLD

0

Attention Dollar Bears

DOLLAR

0

NUGT ready for Blastoff?

NUGT-5 min

 

Strong rally into the close saved the day. Appears NUGT may have completed a series of 1’s and 2’s.  If so, we should see a pullback in the morning and then a blastoff through today’s high for a strong third wave advance. Only time will tell if yesterday’s low is a lasting bottom.

1

What I’m Seeing in JDST and GDXJ

My current assessment in a few charts……

JDST may be bouncing off 20ema on the daily in the new uptrend:

http://schrts.co/FzcaZo

JDST may be backtesting the breakout on the 30-minute chart for a 2nd time.  Not unusual before a trending move up:

http://schrts.co/hyklME

GDXJ may be making a bearish backtest on the broken channel:

http://schrts.co/TUnMMp

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Been Buying Today on Possible New Supports – DUST/JDST/ERY

I’m testing my premise that some of these breakout levels are now morphing into new supports so I’ve been buying on the backtests.

DUST

DUST

JDST

JDST

ERY

ERY

0

Gold is looking a lot like the Yen last year.

Here is the Rambus chart for the Yen that seems to fit in with the Plunger’s theories on where we have been in the gold market, perhaps coming into phase III of the bear market.

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/xjy-day1.png

As I understand it,the green circle is the transition from phase ii (consolidation) to phase iii.

If you look at what gold is doing right now, it is in the equivalent of the green circle (action in the Japanese yen from September 2014), just coming off the high that topped out about halfway up its trading channel. Uncannily similar in my naive view!

Of course, it depends where you draw the lower line of the consolidation but as with the Yen gold is tending to accelerate to the downside gradually during its consolidation and then fall through the bottom of the channel. I have tried an OHC daily chart and a weekly chart but it is a lottery.

Is Phase III for gold about to begin?

gold hlc bars trend bad 2

gold gold fails sc (1) blog

I am going to ‘quote’ the Rambus Yen chart below. Any objections and I can remove it if needed!

xjy-day1

 

 

3

Fill er Up

fill

0

Monthly Dow Trend Line

LT Dow Trend

I think it is very important for stock market bulls that the DJIA not close below that lower trend line on Monday, the last day of August.  Whatever kind of sentiment the market was feeling today needs to be maintained.  Did Dudley’s comments today reassure the markets enough to stop the bleeding, or was this just a short term reaction?

1

GDX DAILY RENKO WITH SELL SIGNALS ON ALL INDICATORS…PSAR WENT TO SELL TODAY

This is my ULTRA conservative chart I pull for the answer…

Good night guys/gals; tomorrow should be exciting…

GDX

2

Welcome Wonderwayne

Back Up the Truck ?

That is not a welcomed phrase here .

Too many people have been run over by the truck backing up

Please read this …Our mission statement and raison d’etre

http://goldtadise.com/?p=338520

The Perhaps PLUNGER’S FLUSH may interest you

http://plunger.goldtadise.com/

…………………

All Opinions are welcomed here if they are TA Based

But Prepare to be debated

Regards

Fullgoldcrown

1

Back Up The Truck!

Howdy All,
Bottom forming with new BPGDM at double bottom of Zero bulls. Translation = NO gold bulls left!
Beautiful chart GDXJ 2 million share downside action last 15 minutes today, may well spell “exhaustion”.
Nobody left except short sellers. Perfect base with panic sales sets up nicely for next leg up.
The street for PM shares is filled with bright red blood.
Wonderwayne

0

Keep Stacking

stacking

0

This was the pattern DUST 60 had today…

Ascending-Triangle-Price-Pattern

0

Today’s Charts that Made a Difference to Me

This is what I thought was going on and what I was trying to trade but the fact than no buyers were showing up when the S&P was rallying hard AND Gold was going up spoke volumes to me. Typically a nice risk/reward setup but something else extraordinary seems to be going on.

NUGT

I’ve never seen action like this.

GDXJ

I’m looking for the 2nd drive down now on the HUI weekly:

HUI

Three drives down in progress I believe shown on the GDX daily:

GDX

Bigger picture JDST. I think touches to 20ema are great places to add.  I’m still shocked we didn’t get one of those opps today!

JDST

I expected red circle to be massive resistance but now I suspect it may be new support since it sliced through it.

JDST

DUST defeated resistance today.  I never bet on that happening but respect it and trade on it when it does.

DUST

 

 

1

DUST 2….

This is going to show direction at the open tomorrow…

Stay tune for the daily game “Which Way Does It Go”??

dust

0

Amazing guesswork

I was really just playing with possible resistance levels when I came up with this forecast on August 14th.  Turns out it was a pretty good roadmap.  I should have followed it

sc-1569

0