SVXY-Inverse VIX back test…watching close



Public Post from Trader Dan’s World

I guess since its public its OK to post here

OUCH! The precious metals, along with most nearly every other commodity on the planet, just got the snot beat out of them today. Already my inbox is seeing the usual “the evil Nazi Bankers are back at work in the precious metals” stuff already surfacing




Rapidly growing US Weekly Oil Production is disrupting the global oil markets

Crude oil dropped 10% this week and many analysts are trying to where oil may bottom.

But one thing is for sure, the Saudis look closely at the rapidly growing US weekly production numbers resulting from the shale fracking revolution.  See the numbers from the EIA:

We are took out production levels from 1983 early this year and continue to surge despite the recent drop in oil prices.  To make a low, production numbers will probably have to decline three weeks in a row indicating that lower prices are shutting in supply.   We are not there yet.

UGAZ at critical support…





Could go down to Plunger’s 100 on this run.

Gold is at a 21-day Fibonacci step out low from 11/7

Gold is at a critical juncture at its 21-day Fibonacii step out low  from the 11/7 bottom – Monday’s post Swiss vote action will tell the tale. A weekly close here below $1180 is a negative – gold has declined in sympathy with oil today.

If gold continues to sell off impulsively after the Swiss vote on Monday, this will be very bearish for gold.


Backtest of neckline extension complete?  Sure looks that way !


sc (6) sc (7)

MACD is above zero and 13/34 cross has occurred on JDST 60 Min…

From what I understand, expecting a “NO” vote from the Swiss? Should be the beginning of our impulse move again in DUST/JDST.




WOW CRUDE OIL DOWN 5% under $70


Knock your SOX off 2



Happy Thanksgiving Silicone Valley


GDXJ Stiff Resistance


Good Chance that’s all She Wrote

GDX cannot seem to break out of the $20.29 to $20.42 area on the THIRD attempt…

and GLD looks to be rolling over too…Just cannot get bullish at the moment…Still in Plunger’s “Annihilation Zone” and maybe this is just another bear market rally…Good Luck!





GDX 15

GDX 15


Trader Dan’s World

a free post already

Dan Likes HUI

Wow a whole new World for Trader Dan

From Trader Dan’s Blog

Monday, November 24, 2014

A Special Announcement

Dear Readers;

When I first began this site, more than three years ago, I did so for two reasons. First, I wanted to use it to both freely express my own personal views of the markets, without feeling constrained by the fact that I was a guest at the sites of others. Secondly, I wished to convey some of the knowledge I had gained from trading for many years to those who were attempting to learn how to understand and look inside the markets for themselves.

Regarding the latter of these, when I first started trading, I had no mentor, and no one I could look to in order to make sense out of what was happening. You talk about confusion and bewilderment! The sums of money I lost in gaining my experience were quite large to be honest. One could say that I paid dearly for my education at the School of Hard Knocks! Along that line there is an old joke in our profession:

“How do make a small fortune trading commodities?”

“Simple – start with a large fortune first!”

Some might think it rather quaint but in response to many emails I received back then from those who had read my writings, I was convinced that it might be a good thing to actually try helping these many wonderful folks learn how to make some informed trading/investment decisions on their own and thus rid themselves of dependency on others when it came to making wise choices into which to put their precious wealth.

After so many years of doing this, I think I might have succeeded in a small way based on some of the responses I have received from this, my current site. The old adage comes to mind: “Give a man a fish and feed him for a day. Teach a man how to fish and feed him for a lifetime”.

That being said, the amount of time and effort that this site takes from me can be overwhelming at times. I mentioned this a while ago when seeking the comments of some of my readers about trying to actually cut back or opening the site to accepting Donations or possibly going to per click advertising.

After much hesitation and with the friendly encouragement/ arm twisting from some of you kind readers, I decided to go with the Donation button.

I wish to publicly express how grateful I am too all of my readers who were gracious enough to reciprocate and make a kind donation. I understand how valuable that your money is to you and the fact that you have felt moved to freely contribute something towards my efforts, speaks volumes to me about your generosity of spirit and your thoughtfulness. From the bottom of my heart, “Thank You!” You will never know how incredibly encouraging your gifts were – especially when at times it seemed the vast majority of emails in my box were vile, insulting and rude ( coming from members of the gold cult – as we have come to expect).

As those of you know who have read here for any length of time, I make my living entirely in the markets as a trader. Nothing I have ever written in public, or spoken in an audio interview, has ever netted me a cent as I did it willingly and without charge. There does come a time however that the Scripture: “A laborer is worthy of his hire” becomes apropos. In discussions with my wife and some friends, I believe that this is that time.

I want to therefore announce that I will be starting a fee-paid site, Trader Dan’s World. Before some of you completely panic, I will be keeping the free site up and running so that the posting community can continue to have a place in which to swap notes and such. I intend to post one or two articles there during the week. That will allow for the current posting regulars to continue to interact; however, the new site will contain the bulk of my work.

The truth is that I have grown rather fond of some of my regular posters and although I have never met them, feel like I know them rather well as individuals because of the length of time that we have spent reading one another’s comments. I do hope some of you will be moved to come on over to the new site and give it a try.

I fully understand that for this decision, I will catch some grief from some of the gold bugs, especially those who love to somehow manage to accuse me of always having some sort of agenda ( what that is escapes me but I trust that these all-knowing and all-wise individuals, who somehow know me better than I know myself, will be more than happy to enlighten me as to exactly what that might be). Suffice it to say, that one of the pure delights in having a fee paid site that I hope to enjoy is to finally rid myself of having to deal in any form with such people. And I must also say that having to put up with their non-stop attacks and insults, merely for calling the market as I saw it in the charts, was ONE of the factors that went into my decision to move to this fee-paid site.

I suppose if they wish to continue their verbal assaults, they will have to fork over some cash for the privilege of so doing! Then again, considering the fact that none of them had the common trading sense to recognize a bear market and protect the value of their metals during a period of lower prices, I suspect that they are too busy nursing their many financial wounds to have any surplus cash available with which to contribute to my fee-paid site for the opportunity of continuing to insult their host. Let them grumble, murmur and complain therefore. I think the rest of us understand their kind!

A quick word about the new site – I intend to focus on more markets that just gold or mining shares. I have been introducing other markets here at my site for those who are interested in looking at some of the other futures markets. Believe it or not, there is an entire universe of commodity markets which can be traded and which offer profit potential for those who like doing something besides watching gold prices all day long. As some of you know by now, my special areas of expertise lie in the agricultural markets, the livestock and grain markets. Those are the markets that I cut my trading teeth on and the ones that I spend the most time dealing with during the normal trading day.

There are currency markets, and energy markets, as well as the bond market and of course the equity markets, that are all potential topics of articles that I will post and analyze from time to time. One thing that I can tell you, is that I will continue to call these markets as I see them, with no apologies for so doing. As I have said many, many times now, the business of a trader is to profit. Successful traders profit; those who fail make excuses. It is indeed that simple!

As a way of introduction, we are going to provide a one month free trial period for my current readers so that they dip their toes into the water and check it out. I am excited about the forum that we will be setting up as well as some of the social media inputs. We plan on the site being an ongoing work in progress, making improvements and changes to it as needed or suggested. Also, I am trying to work up something extra for all those who made Donations to this site as an extra way of saying “THANK YOU”.

In closing, I would like to thank all of my readers who have come here to read my thoughts over the years. It is an honor to have one’s views respected by a wide audience but it is also an honor that brings with it the responsibility to be truthful and to be honest. I have tried to take that charge seriously and I trust that you as my readers have seen this in my writings.


Dan Norcini

“Trader Dan”

Look Forward to you at Trader Dan’s World



The Mother of all smoke signals ?


GOLD $1431 and climbing

GOLD UP $ 150 in after hours !!


now up $127 but nothing else ..even silver is moving

April fools ?


wow..this is fun!

If you are not Short that is !

Maybe the nightwatchman had a heart attck and fell on the buy button ?


A Bug’s Nightmare



A Stock Market Blow Off started on 10/15 and is Intensifying ….

The failure of a perfect setup in the SPX reversion-to-mean trade and other market indicators argues that the 10/15 flash crash low started a STOCK MARKET BLOWOFF phase that is intensifying based on global GE, past and present, in the four major economies …. looking for a possible test of Nasdaq 5000 by X-mas …. any pullback in the QQQ going into Wednesday should be bought.


BBs are tightening on jdst 15 min

Expecting major move soon…one way or the other

The GDX may have finished a Large Wave A down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 – have we started a Wave B rally?

From an Elliott Wave point of view, we may have finished 5-waves down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 (Wave A) and we may have started a Wave B bounce that could last a few months.  This is a possible count if the 5th wave does not extend here.  Since we did 5-waves down from 2011, this implies more correction in time and price but maybe not right away.

The “small trader” component of the Comex gold COT report is showing historical levels of shorting after being bullish and wrong for three years running – CONTRARY BULLISH – this should be a worrisome point for those looking for $900 gold by early 2015.