Goldtent TA Paradise
SPX with a positive divergence–closed shorts this afternoon; will reassess in the AM…
Watching backtests of moving averages…While I have to admit I am intermediate bearish, when I visualize a formation of a positive divergence I take heed!
JENKINSLANE SVXY IHS Still in play…We both like to dabble in SVXY/UVXY; I find his work very interesting and reliable…
UVXY 60 finds resistance yet again with the “layer” trend line; closed one penny above the 13 EMA.
Sandwiched between the overhead resistance and 13 EMA–tough call here…
GDX gets PLENTY of coverage here…gap fill with a positive divergence–I wait for direction…
Need some more indicator confirmation!
It’s incredible how many analysts are looking for a significant correction now in gold and PM shares. This type of skepticism is exactly what the market needs to continue pushing prices higher. These are the same analysts who weren’t afraid to declare a bottom and start buying with both fists every time gold dropped another $100, yet are now afraid to buy when gold is trending higher….and doing so in a healthy manner (eg while backtesting broken resistance and showing bullish volume patterns and chart structure). In the article link below, the author is looking for prices to come back to the 200dma, which I agree it will….eventually. The problem with his calculus is that barring an incredibly steep drop, if prices simply pull back slightly and then consolidate for many days, prices will touch the 200dma at a point much, much higher than it exists today. So while I agree with the reversion to an MA eventually, I think he’s being very unrealistic to think that level is at HUI 180. I will admit that he is correct in that if you were to plan to buy and hold for years with an entry at current levels, it doesn’t matter if you were to buy today or wait for a seemingly better entry….unless that entry never presents itself. After seeing clearly the inflection point in commodities is behind us, I think the greater risk right now for a long term investor is missing out completely because you tried to finesse the “perfect entry”. I also disagree with his notion of successfully trading in out of the market by timing the oscillations. Although he sells a service so I understand why he advocates that approach. Not much money to be made advocating buy and hold.
In fact, my black line on the HUI monthly chart below suggest that support will remain above 200 at this point. If prices dip below on a monthly closing basis, I think we need to seriously reassess.
Click on Full Screen.
Here is the basics of the chart I was looking at back in Dec predicting the next move to $1,200. My $1,200 target was exceeded and then the breakout level was tested as support before moving higher. We now have a large cup and handle pattern which, if confirmed, could take prices quickly to $1,550, believe it or not. The measured move and filling of thin areas make this a very reasonable target in my eyes. As long as we continue to claim new support levels and fail to breach them on pullbacks, then this chart remains in play IMO.
I continue to believe the energy sector provide excellent long opportunities. The hourly OIH chart illustrates this well. OBV tells the story….buy the dips, especially today on the backtest. With S&P poised to rebound, this looks like a good risk/reward entry and the stops are obvious.
Here is one of my monthly WTIC charts showing how rare it is to get long term investment opportunity in oil/energy like we have now. yet another view of why I have an initial target set at $62.
I know many are looking for the broader markets to roll over here but as I’ve shown on my weekly and monthly charts, current prices are still above what have been supportive moving averages. I still think this is just a correction as prices move higher over the next couple of months, possibly led by underlying commodity strength. This possible falling wedge on the S&P intraday charts has caught my attention. If short, be careful…..
Looks like we have ourselves a channel on GDXJ. Chart to the right is from a post earlier today and it is not updated. Maybe GDXJ will find its bottom for this pull back soon at the channel support line which would also be the middle line on the chart to the right, circa 34,20. And in order to compensate for that the resistance line were broken to the upside for the channel at one time, maybe price will break below the channel for a FBO to let´s say circa 34,00.
Does Anybody think the “Jobs” number will be strong this Friday ?
IF its “managed” like we all think…They will Not allow a strong number to be published
That would send the DOW and NAZ crashing and the Dollar Soaring..
This sell off in the precious metals stocks over the past 3 days has created quite a stir among PM investors. Is it the hoped for opportunity which will allow late, sidelined investors who missed the rally a way to get into this market at reasonable prices? This would be the fabled “gentleman’s entry” which allows those who were caught sleeping to get a position down at those break out levels that they wished they had bought, but missed. Will the correction we are in allow this? In two words…fat chance!
It is my contention that we are in Phase I of a bull market in the precious metals. Phase I is where after a prolonged bear market stocks return to “Known Values”. In the fall of 2015 PM stocks were compressed down in a breath collapse at the end of the great bear market. Because of that severe compression they have been exploding to the upside since their bottom on January 19th. This path towards known values has resembled a beach ball underwater that has been released. It has been a dramatic power fueled run to the upside offering no pullbacks to the frustrated bulls on the sidelines. Newsletter writers, unbelievably have erred by keeping their subscribers out of this rally and looking for a more attractive entry after a pullback.
The dominant emotion of the PM market is now fear. That is, a fear of missing out on the start of a bull market that they have longed and lusted for over the past 5 years. Because of this fear, I contend that this “correction” will be short lived as hair triggered sidelined gold bugs will see this as a gift and soon rush in and provide support at these levels.
There will be no “Gentleman’s Entry”.
In Phase I of a bull market the initial rally is meet with deep skepticism, we have seen this. The public and institutions are not even aware that the trend has changed, this is also where we find ourselves today. However, a small group of core PM investors are aware, but due to their doubt find themselves on the sidelines or underinvested. They want to get in, but they want in at yesterdays prices. So the market advances without them as they still harbor their doubts. As the rally continues the price action convinces them one by one that the move is real and they finally embrace the trend by buying it. Remember they have been lusting for the next bull market for five years and the price action convinces them it’s here.
This is when the first secondary reaction strikes. It will arrive when least expected and has a duration of typically 3 weeks to 3 months. It will arrive when the consensus is that lower prices are out of the question. It serves the purpose of correcting the accompanying excesses and dampen the enthusiasm of amateur investors. Many will mistake it as a true reversal of the primary trend and will conclude the rally was just a bear market rally after all. In extreme cases, it may even develop into a cyclical bear market lasting 6-8 months. Structurally its function is to separate Phase I and II in the bull market. From a psychological perspective I view this current pullback as a minor shakeout that should be immediately bought. The market rarely presents the fabled gentleman’s entry and the current level around HUI 210 is likely as much of a gift Mr. Market is going to offer.
I have Crude on day 21 of Trading Cycle #2 with a top on day 18 so far. It appears that Crude is either moving into a half Trading Cycle (TC) low here or perhaps the TC has topped as my green TC uptrend is breaking down and backtesting today. My second chart shows a 2+ year picture on Crude. It appears we may potentially have a false breakout underway with price backtesting from below as well.
Star Wars release date May 1977 (The 1st Trilogy begins. Episodes IV, V, VI)
Gold bottomed at $100 on August 16, 1976 and topped at $850 on January 21, 1980
The very first Star Wars was released during the beginning of Gold’s epic last leg towards its price peak in that 10 year bull cycle (1970-1980) some 9 months after the last major bottom in Gold of that particular cycle.
Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace release date May 1999 (The 2nd Trilogy begins. Episodes I, II, III)
Gold bottomed in July 1999 (Brown’s Bottom).
Star Wars Episode I was released right on the cusp of Gold’s current multi-year bull cycle a few months before this major multi-year bull market in Gold began.
Star Wars Episode VII release date December 2015 (The 3rd Trilogy will begin. Episodes VII, VIII, IX)
Will gold price history repeat once again with the launch of this last Star Wars trilogy (VII, VIII, IX)???
Cycle Bottom for Gold $1049 on Dec. 17th, 2015?
Evidence has shown that significant cycle bottoms in the Gold price tend to coincide closely with Star Wars trilogy release dates.
May the Force (4th) be with You. 😉