Gold Weekly

In Spite of all the angst in the Miners and the scary looking charts

Papa Gold looks really Good !

This could be because the MINERS got way ahead of themselves rising 200% on average while Gold rose 30%

in the first 8 months of the year

goldwk

VIX Update…

Coincidence bouncing off bottom trend line when the SPX has hit major resistance?
vix
spx
SPX indicators are bearish…

GDX 15 Trading Chart…

Constantly adjusting and trying to “perfect” the “ideal” trading chart…
Especially note the lower section which is accurate in trade changes between NUGT/DUST…
gdx
What this chart is telling me is GDX goes up to test 27.70 resistance on Monday AM if the last black thin line is breached on NUGT…The TRIX is oversold; thus, probabilities favor NUGT. Combine chart formations with indicators and lower trend line breaches–latest formation appears to be a “bull flag”…

Gold and Silver EW count

xauusd-092316xagusd-092316

For RTV and all.

This is my EW count for gold and silver.  The blow-off top in silver makes me think this correspond to a wave (5). Typical of commodities …

If you look at the chart of gold, you can see the struggle with the 2011 trendline and the lower trendline.  Price is just been squeezed right at the corner.

We have coiling price action that is soon to face the moment of truth.

The price may go lower again to touch that support line, and if they do the point at which they

find support may be revealing.  We may finally get the long anticipated breakout higher.

We are dealing with probabilities here and P2 can still go lower …

GDX Still undecided …

I was expecting a new high after the FOMC.

The bullish case is still valid as long as 25.17 holds with the Expanded Flat correction

gdx-bullish

 

The bearish case implies that MAYBE, we’re making a triangle for (b) wave and we have another leg down for the (c) wave (Zig-Zag).

gdx-bearish

GDX

If this is an HS topping pattern as many suggest, the volume on the right shoulder should be declining. It is not. The volume, especially the green volume, is rising.

PM Stocks …Exploring All Angles….

I posted the bottom Chart a couple weeks back. In response to Rambus Idea that ALL Consolidations / Counter Trend Moves (Bull and Bear)

in the HUI Chart dating to the 2008 Crash have been 6 months and 30%

hui-percentage

I drew some of those famous dotted lines as a rough projection.

So far so good

🙂

hui111

Then there is THIS possibility
Looking at the consolidations in the 2000 Bull market in PMs

https://goldtadise.com/?p=379478

Gold USD and Yen Cycles

It is still possible that Gold had a short, three month, Intermediate Cycle (Norvast’s 2009 Fractal ~ see 2nd chart in attached link), but it is still a long shot at this point.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914

While Gold’s correlation to the USD and Yen moves are not 100% (is anything ever?), the USD’s negative correlation, as of late, has been something to note. The Yen has also had a very high positive correlation to Gold for several years and it’s rally in 2016 mirrors Gold’s move thus far.

The Yen, however, is due for its next Yearly Cycle low (see my 2nd chart) and I am shorting it with YCS. I also believe the USD is relatively early in a new Intermediate Cycle. While I believe the USD will be turned back by my 3 Year Cycle downtrend line, it likely has a few more weeks of upside price action left in it. If the Yen does move into its Yearly Cycle low over the next few weeks, the PM Complex should move lower with it if the correlation holds.

https://goldtadise.com/?p=381799

screenshot-2016-09-23-21-43-46screenshot-2016-09-23-21-31-40screenshot-2016-09-23-21-10-00

SPX still Wedging

Still mostly in cash on my SPX allocation although I did take an initial short position with SDS at my Red line.

screenshot-2016-09-23-20-30-32

PM Sector dissecting performance of juniors

Below find two charts:

CDNX to GDXJ and ZJG.TO to GDXJ.

In both cases GDXJ has performed better than CDNX and ZJG the junior gold etf.

Since Jan 2016 gold/PM sector in up trend and GDXJ has faired well.

junior-zjg-to-gold junior-cdnx-to-gdxj

WTIC Cycle update

Chart show crude is wedging to a decision point fairly early in a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.

screenshot-2016-09-23-18-45-20

GDX 22

Sir Plunger at the Chartology Forum has me looking at the bearish angle with fresh eyes.

This SUX but it is compelling …no?

gdx111

PMs and US SMs continue to trade in Lockstep

hui111

Whats Going On here ?

gold111

SILJ Thoughts…

SILJ 2 Hour…
Needs to breach 17.50 for the bulls and the orange line to invalidate HS potential patterns…
Gap almost filled…
silj
SILJ Daily…
siljdaily
SILJ 2 Hour with HS price objective…
silj

GDX Triangulating ???

image-1

DUST 15

dust-15

Back test of GDX Elliott Wave Perspective

gdx-primary-analysis-sep-23-1027-am-2-hour

Here is a closeup of the backtest. We broke up through the downtrend It is now reaching down to test the downtrend line (Blue 4). From a Elliott wave perspective it looks like it will be successful minor 4 wave down to launch a wave up in the higher 3 wave up.

$TNX

tnx-w1 tnx-w2

$XJY

xjy-w xjy-q

DUSTY

keeps finding support at the blue horizontal line

dust-cycle

NatGas

Out of NatGas for now as it looks to me like it wants to head into a Trading Cycle low. Also took profits on both my Sugar SGG and Coffee JO positions yesterday.

Here is my Coffee JO chart. Will post on SGG and NatGas later if I have time.

Added: SGG and Natgas charts.

screenshot-2016-09-22-08-57-35screenshot-2016-09-23-17-55-27screenshot-2016-09-23-17-46-47

GDX daily

Money flow has improved, MACD turnover upside. Waiting for the TRIX to verify.

HUI next resistances 250 and 286

HUI daily with a SAR buy signal backtesting the 20 ema

SPX Intermediate Cycle

We are now 3 months into the current 5-6 month SPX Intermediate Cycle and the SPX is wedging to a decision point.

screenshot-2016-09-23-07-10-13

NDX Update…

Since this is leading, will monitor close…
SPX has not penetrated resistance this AM…
Best scenario for bulls is filling of the gap and or bounce off black horizontal trend line…
What was previous resistance, needs to be current support for the bulls…
Negative divergences in play…
Macd has crossed bullish above zero…
ndx
This could be the mother of BULL traps, or the SM continues on it’s bullish way…

Uranium miners – pretty late update

Well, looks like I was a bit early on saying that the uranium miners have bottomed and are going up in general. Some miners have absolutely bottomed and have been going up for months I think though. And I do believe URA is now levelling out and finding its bottom, see below.

Looking at the rest of the energy complex which seems to be on the move we could get a quite short Weinstein stage 1. On the other hand, as I wrote in the post about the GOLD:WTIC ratio I posted on a week or so ago, if WTIC is to rise to the PO of its possible inverse h&s, or really rise that much at all from here, GOLD is going to have to make a move up this second leg that most of us here can not even imagine, way past my PO of 1615.

Hoping we will get a nice and obvious reversal formation for URA, plus a smaller one, so we can get onboard early.
ura-linura-log

Looking at the other relevant ETF we can see that it looks very different from URA and seems to have found support on the EMA30 weekly now and might be launching its Weinstein stage 2 at this point:
nlr

I just have to include this one, one of the most massive, perfect falling wedges I have ever seen on a miner (Azarga is ex. PowerTech Uranium):
azarga-uranium

Info on NLR vs URA:
http://www.etf.com/sections/features-and-news/2425-ura-vs-nlr-best-uranium-exposure?nopaging=1

And, we should also watch when Alternative Energy turns around in this continued SM bull market:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=358102

ADDED:
efr-reversal

Gold Weekly

Looks Good

goldwk

GDXJ BACKTEST

gdxj111

Silver to gold ratio

This ratio is predictor of miners trend. After several weeks of consolidation it appears breakout is coming soon. Some miners have already started moving higher this week. As the ratio moves higher miners tend to move higher. Last top in ratio was in 2011.

silver-to-gold-weekly

Plus BPGDM is signaling trend change:

bpgdm-ranko-daily