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It would take a daily close above 85.59/XAU to turn the intra-month trend up. The XAU’s failure to do this is increasing the potential for an imminent peak. That is corroborated by the weekly LHR that was tested last week, increasing the potential that an intermediate peak could take hold at any time. This remains in the context of a larger-degree decline that could last into early-May 2017, the next phase of a 19-week high-low-(low) Cycle Progression. A secondary peak would ideally take hold at the midpoint of this expected decline (~March 20–24th) and create a corroborating high-high-(low) Cycle Progression targeting early-May.
Right, I was asked by our moderator (Have you met Fully?) that I needed to get a Stockcharts account, to start charting. I was trying to use the hourly chart to convey a few thoughts but it wouldnt let me intraday. Now the day is done, I may see if I can get in. *Have tried again to no avail*
Right so I’ll talk about my lower time frame thoughts and how it ties into the very basic chart I have shown.
So on an intraday basis (Hourly) chart I have seen a diamond pattern of sorts developing, within which is an IHS. The Head to Neckline distance being 11 dollars (1240-1251) which will give us a price target of 1262. Here we see a convergence of resistance which I feel is going to hold. This would give us a ‘Double Top’ formation. This is what I have tried to show in the chart above potentially developing. I need to get better at this charting lark. Where are the arrows!
Right so the price target of the Double top would be from the top to the neckline (1262/3 – 1195) which is a difference of roughly 68 Dollars. 1195 – 68 takes us to 1127 (only 4 dollars from the ‘YCL’ in December.) In for a ride for sure, with more twists and turns on the way.
This ties in with Surf’s cycle view of the cycle topping pretty soon and that could be on an intermediate degree. 2017 seems to be setting up to be a sideways year. BORING!