Here’s what I think is going on now. We got the bounce I was expecting but I traded it miserably. Now I think we have a rejection at the lower rail….former support becoming resistance.
My current assessment in a few charts……
JDST may be bouncing off 20ema on the daily in the new uptrend:
JDST may be backtesting the breakout on the 30-minute chart for a 2nd time. Not unusual before a trending move up:
GDXJ may be making a bearish backtest on the broken channel:
Here is the Rambus chart for the Yen that seems to fit in with the Plunger’s theories on where we have been in the gold market, perhaps coming into phase III of the bear market.
As I understand it,the green circle is the transition from phase ii (consolidation) to phase iii.
If you look at what gold is doing right now, it is in the equivalent of the green circle (action in the Japanese yen from September 2014), just coming off the high that topped out about halfway up its trading channel. Uncannily similar in my naive view!
Of course, it depends where you draw the lower line of the consolidation but as with the Yen gold is tending to accelerate to the downside gradually during its consolidation and then fall through the bottom of the channel. I have tried an OHC daily chart and a weekly chart but it is a lottery.
Is Phase III for gold about to begin?
I am going to ‘quote’ the Rambus Yen chart below. Any objections and I can remove it if needed!
I think it is very important for stock market bulls that the DJIA not close below that lower trend line on Monday, the last day of August. Whatever kind of sentiment the market was feeling today needs to be maintained. Did Dudley’s comments today reassure the markets enough to stop the bleeding, or was this just a short term reaction?
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Bottom forming with new BPGDM at double bottom of Zero bulls. Translation = NO gold bulls left!
Beautiful chart GDXJ 2 million share downside action last 15 minutes today, may well spell “exhaustion”.
Nobody left except short sellers. Perfect base with panic sales sets up nicely for next leg up.
The street for PM shares is filled with bright red blood.
This is what I thought was going on and what I was trying to trade but the fact than no buyers were showing up when the S&P was rallying hard AND Gold was going up spoke volumes to me. Typically a nice risk/reward setup but something else extraordinary seems to be going on.
I’ve never seen action like this.
I’m looking for the 2nd drive down now on the HUI weekly:
Three drives down in progress I believe shown on the GDX daily:
Bigger picture JDST. I think touches to 20ema are great places to add. I’m still shocked we didn’t get one of those opps today!
I expected red circle to be massive resistance but now I suspect it may be new support since it sliced through it.
DUST defeated resistance today. I never bet on that happening but respect it and trade on it when it does.
13.00 is critical…GDX HAS A MACD BEAR CROSS
I thought some further explanation was warranted. See my JDST chart below. Ultimately being long JDST is where the bigger move will be but the odds are really favorable for a JNUG bounce here and it may be much bigger than you suspect. It’s also oddly comforting that no one else is openly supporting this view….my most profitable trades seem to occur when 99% of the folks are crowded into the other side of the room….hehe