Is Gold Flagging ?

Looks like a possibility to me.

Vulcanic Eruption Sighting

Spock’s Rocks do this sometimes

GDX 60 min

Mark Mobius on gold

an article on zero hedge.  I have followed Mobius for a long time and have a lot of respect for his work

Are We Ready ?

With many metrics suggesting a pause/pullback is likely, we need to remember the fact that impulsive, bullish moves can catch us out to the upside. I’ve already posted my thoughts that support the possibility of a sizeable correction. Here I’m pointing out just how close the GSR is to making a decisive drop. It’s resting right on that support, close to the apex. If it were to drop, it would likely trigger a surge in silver price and the miners could fly. The GDX shows how a reverse symmetry move up (like the one we’ve seen in gold), might be on the cards. Food for thought.

CDNX circa 2008 from Rambus

Bikoo…you have a good memory

I searched Rambus Site for the CDNX chart you requested …here it is

This next chart for the CDNX is a long term weekly look which helped me find the top, back in late 2007. At the time, I called that huge trading range anything you wanted, because there were several pattens that could work out. The bottom line was, whichever way the price action broke out, a big move would follow. Keep in mind that was at the height of the bull market up until that point, and no one wanted to believe that big trading range could be a top.

The big clue came when the small red triangle formed on the right side of the trading range. Until it broke down I still couldn’t say with any confidence which way the big trading range would breakout, but once the price action broke below the bottom rail of that red triangle the writing was on the wall. Again, there was no way to know the magnitude of the collapse only that an important top was in place and an impulse move to the downside would follow. This was also about the time I had to quit posting at the original Goldtent because so many gold bugs were getting angry with my bearish posts.


Please note….back in the day the CDNX was filled with PM Micro miners and explorers

Presently it is filled with Junior Pot Stocks and Junior Energy stocks so it is not a good proxy for PMs any more

AUDJPY weekly Top Head n Shoulder BO

What implication this has on PM sector? It is confirmed BO unless pending backtest? This AUDJPY lead the 2008 global financial crash .

This chart of top is similar to Rambus’s chart of CDNX in 2008 at 3350+ HnS after making right shoulder a bearish formation just above NL or major S/R line BO is confirmed top. May Fully redraw the CDNX classic chart with Rambus caption embedded in it for future reference.

One can spot a typical top of securities. Indices or ETF’s By Rambus:

CDNX circa 2008 from Rambus

Here’s The Forecast Until 2032

The future is often vague/uncertain (in fact, it usually is, especially the further ahead you try to look). My outlook for gold is steadily evolving around some fixed (cyclical) points.
There are a range of likely outcomes which I’ve allowed for in my chart below. The orange shaded area highlights the region I expect gold price to occupy. I’m not catering for what in my view, is a very low probability collapse in gold prices. Unless support levels are breached, there’s no need to spend too much time thinking about that. So, what do we have ?

Firstly, we can see how we expect the various long term indicators to behave. I’ve highlighted the Stocharstic indicator here. There are 3 clear stages visible: Stage 1 – Rise from below 20, to above 60, Stage 2 – Stay above 60 (with the exception of a likely mid cycle breakdown in 2024), Stage 3 – Fall back below 60 and eventually below 20.

Next, we can see how these 3 stages tie in with golds cyclical behaviour, and I’ve labelled the chart below with the cyclical lows every 8 years. The unknown bit is whether the cycle is going to turn out to be left, or right translated. In a bull market, the cycles should be biased to the upside, which requires right translated cycles (large portion of the cycle trending upwards, with a short correction at the end of the cycle (like 2008).

By my reckoning, as we move towards $1800, and the top of my red rectangle, we should be transitioning from stage 1 on the Stocharstic indicator to stage 2. This will sustain a strong uptrend for the next 2 or 3 years. I’ll be getting very, very cautious in 2022 and probably closing out all of my positions in the PM sector. It’s interesting to see that the top of my red triangle (approx. $1800) intersects the line drawn using the ‘arc’ tool in the charting software in the year 2024 !! Coincidence ? It would make perfect sense to have a hard backtest of the $1800 breakout area, before the final stage of the PM bull takes off and leads us into a parabolic top in the late 2020’s. I will be back in to mining positions for that of course 🙂

Bear Market in gold, just like the 90’s

Did anyone see this?

“And now, the grand finale of the analogy: in the late 1995 and in May 2019, gold soared, and in both cases, it happened when the USD Index was still moving higher on average, but in a relatively orderly manner. If you look at the very long-term USD Index chart above, you’ll see that the shape of the price move in late-1995 and 1996 is very similar to what we’re seeing since 2018. And how did gold soar?”


GWA Settlement +80% Goes North

GoWest enters into settlement with PGB.