Covid-19 vs World War II

Everything happens for a reason .

As a society we probably needed to slow things down for a while…We have been sailing along at breakneck speed for decades and I think :

Mother Earth was just getting a little dizzy and wobbly from it all and needed a break.

Yes it’s scary and Yes we have major concerns for the economy , and most everyone on the planet of 7.7 billion souls are and will be impacted in some way .

But consider what my parents and most your grandparents had to deal with during the uncertainties of WW II.

That is a period in time that not .00001% of us here experienced nor can relate to . It is a period of time that has all but been forgotten.

Yes we all agree this viral virus is a crisis unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes ..unless you are in your late 80s or 90’s that is ….(the oldest 70’s wouldn’t remember much)

However I think that WW II was 100 times more of a crisis , complete with uncertain outcomes .

It raged and escalated for 6 Years.

Germany Invaded Poland Sept 1 1939 . Armistice Day was Aug 15 1945.

……

During this War we have all been sent to our rooms…and told not to touch our faces or anyone else. So far it has lasted about a month and the duration is uncertain but it will NOT be 6 years !

During THAT war …every family had to send one or many young men to Kill and be killed .

Bludgeoned hacked exploded burned and cut to death by fellow human beings .

Those who remained home had to work long hours for the war effort .

Business and whole industries like travel were shut down for years….

When it was all over , society went on a strong run to better and better and more and more things which has lasted all of my lifetime . 70 years and hopefully counting 🙂

During THIS war :

We expect up to perhaps a million casualties as a very serious case scenario. Which is an unfathomable horror especially since the enemy is mysterious and invisible and kills from the inside out.

During THAT war :

” An estimated total of 70–85 million people perished, which was about 3% of the 1940 world population (est. 2.3 billion).”

“Civilian deaths totaled 50-55 million. Military deaths from all causes totaled 21–25 million, including deaths in captivity of about 5 million prisoners of war.”

The Enemy was well known but no less horrifying.

……………….

A catastrophic event is a catastrophic event !

Comparing it to another catastrophic even doesn’t make it any less so.

But one has to marvel at our parents / grand parents / great grand parents determination and fortitude in overcoming great hardship and solidarity in rapidly rebuilding society and rapidly surpassing what came before.

Something to think about at a moment when we have a lot of time to think.

Looking forward to freedom and back to what we do within the next months.

For now appreciating the finer things finding new and reviving old interests and staying positive is the best medicine .

(Fully Disclaimer : This post comes from a person who named his Pony “Polyanna” 🙂

Bob Hoye take on pandamic and Credit contraction Historical account

Revisit Bob Hoye’s timely post This was on Goldtent in March. Little tooo early. Members may have a different take from it.

Financial and Disease Panics: Black Swans? Bob Hoye 2020

Plunger –

Do you care to make a comment on how you see this global slowdown affecting the post-bubble contraction?  Thanks.

Powell Pivot

The greatest moment in the current gold bull era…

Tips are for waiters

Looks like the Federal reserve is also guaranteeing new highs in gold …

Debt to GDP – USA

Here is a chart sourced from USA Federal Reserve own numbers, which tracks the total debt in the USA economy, both private and public issued debt securities. The numbers:

1. The current annual GDP of the USA is about $21 trillion.

2. The current total debt is about $75 trillion (this does not include unfunded liabilities, which are off book and estimated at $200 trillion).

So debt to GDP is about 350%. Each $1 borrowed adds 30 cents to GDP.

What we are observing now is a controlled demolition of the USA economy, the engine of global growth, and also the controlled demolition of the global economy. At what price?

That GDP number will now drop dramatically over coming months, perhaps by as much as 30% to 50% or more. If so, the debt to GDP doubles to 700%. Furthermore, on top of this an additional $6 trillion is being pumped into the patient via more public debt. So the debt to GDP goes to 800%. Each $1 borrowed adds 12.5 cents to GDP.

They are making exactly the same mistakes that were made in 2008, which led to the current debacle.

They had the chance in 2008 to reform … this time, it will be forced on them.

Nobody likes silver

I guess most gonna wait for new all-time highs before getting in …

Miners

News on a tweet by Martin katusa

“176 miners globally have temporarily shut down due to the virus as of this morning . 115 (65%) are precious metal operations. # gold/Silver”

How miners can survive???

Here’s Looking at U pedro

Quite the V

Wonder what is up with that

US Weekly Jobless Claims – 1967 until today

Sobering…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1245826958295875584