Silver versus Spx

This ratio was just brought to my attention… and found it captivating!  Also, another occasion to test my latest yearly charts and arc analysis… Thanks Fully and Northstar !

Note: I couldn’t get the borders exactly right the superposed arcs.. arcs with analog charts on tradingview was finicky.

Surf’s Weekend Update

My Gold & USD update is a Freebie this weekend. Enjoy… 😉

Surf’s Weekend Updates

Rambus, Plunger and Jordan….All in!

Hope this means something positive!

Plunger made some definitive comments at the Rambus forum: (Hope he doesn’t mind) about “a macro set-up ever been this favorable for gold.”



Basing Patterns, Cycles, Indicators, Evidence Gathering

Commodity prices move in a cyclical fashion. I tend to look at charts visually, and just apply a visual ‘best fit’. That’s partly because I’ve come to realise that the exact date of the lowest price and highest price does not occur at the exact peak or bottom of the cycle. They’re affected by external forces, meaning the ACTUAL low/high can be left or right translated. That’s nothing new, and stating the obvious, but I prefer to be more fluid when looking at the ‘heartbeat’ that drives individual commodities or stocks.

In the following copper chart, you can see that I’ve identified the 2 most recent lows, and surmise that the next one will occur in 2023. I also suggest that we may see a new trading channel develop. Further evidence comes from the bullish wedge breakout and stocharstic indicator. As well as that, this is all happening within a clearly defined bowl, atop a cyclical low.

This type of behaviour can be seen in individual stocks as well. Here’s AngloGold Ashanti for example…

Sometimes price plunges very sharply, and rises just as sharply (red triangles). Sometimes the basing price action can be contained within a perfect arc. This brings us to the chart for Silver. Just how far and how fast it rises will be fascinating to watch 🙂

Which way book #4

I’m still confused with what I’m seeing… Are we expecting a bounce down and a fail of the arc? This actually looks bullish to me… Do I have to consider the angle of entry in the arc? Just wait for it to resolve… Am I tired? Coffee break?

MAGA or “Make AG Great Again”

This one has probably been done many times by NorthStar…

Like Silver expressed in Great British Pounds, Silver expressed in US Dollars. Same setup. If XAGGBP bounces of the arc… could increase chances of this also bouncing!

Arc applied to Gold Silver Ratio

Inspired by Fully and reduce even more noise… going into yearly candles.  Can I apply arcs to ratios? Any how… approaching ALL time yearly defined resistance

Note the second bull era for gold started.. and the following year, still had GSR green candle (silver’s lag to join the party) …

God Save the Queen

Hopefully this is a better attempt at new TA technology than my experiments with time analysis.. as seen in  my “timecop” post… sigh…

NorthStar, not sure if you ever did a silver expressed in gbp on monthly chart… let me know what I could do to make this accurate


Edit: adding weekly chart + zoom …. Need a miracle next week!


Copper Breakout – Hugely Important Year Ahead

I’ve posted the copper chart a few times, most recently after identifying a bullish wedge coming up against the support offered by the round basing formation. The only way (if the pattern was to hold) is up. Fast forward to yesterday…

If price fails to break the $3 area, we’re looking at a strong case for more commodity deflation. If, however, we see a move above $3, I can’t see how anyone could argue against the case for inflating commodity prices. My recent posts of the Bloomberg Commodity Index support the case for a possible turn and move upwards here.

The importance of the outcome cannot be over-stated. It’ll shape the way the markets move for years to come. What’s it to be ? Inflation ? deflation ? stagflation ? Choose your flation, but, one way or the other, we’re going to find out in 2020.

Gold In Decades

We focus on Hourly Daily Weekly and sometimes even Monthly charts

I just thought I’d have a look at a Yearly Chart of Gold

Interesting :

Most of us only get 7 or 8 decades if we are lucky .

Personally I was born in 1950….So I have had 6 of them and am starting the 7th .

1950s and 1960s ( my first 20 years when i didn’t know gold from a hole in the ground) Gold was fixed at $35

1970s ( my 20s when I couldn’t care less about Gold) was a great time to be a Gold Bug !

1980s and 1990s …my 30s and 40s Gold was not so much fun (except for the Bre-X years 94 to 96)

2000s … my 50s was a great time to be a gold bug and I was !.. Look at that a decade where every year was UP.

2010s… my 60s has been dull and not so much fun , but at least I made a lot of good friends here at the tent.

Now….Here come the 2020s… my 70s

Will history repeat and we all will die of boredom ?

Will I have to wait for another decade until my 80s…. when I may forget where my stash is ?

Or is this decade going to be DIFFERENT ?

Mature Audiences Only