Goldtent TA Paradise
Pure Plunger (HOT!)
Today’s action is tasting the approaching point of recognition by the markets that central bank planning has FAILED. Its like the Berlin wall coming down. The end of the game.
The puzzle is now completed. The last piece is now in place, that being the END of the govt debt cycle and the END of central banks, as we know them.
Today, Spock took 5 new long positions, with another 2 for Sydney market tonight flagged. Its too early to take profits. Maybe in 5 to 6 months down the track Spock will look at taking some real money off the table. This bull market is only just getting started after a brutal bear market that wiped 85% off the $HUI. The second worst bear in gold miners, since 1865, or 5 generations. I am expecting at least 100% increase off the 19th Jan lows over the coming months. This is a marathon, not a sprint using decaying derivatives such as the 3xers.
Have a look at this chart. Whats it saying?
Now have a look at this chart of the Barron’s Gold Mining Index. Whats it saying? The low is in for the gold miners and we are starting a large 3 wave up, within a massive bull flag, after an ABC correction that started in 2007. If this plays out, as I believe it will, we break the top of the flag in coming years. The upside is therefore mind boggling. Even if we do not break the top rail, it is still a huge move up from here.
Hence the OVERALL strategy is: Looking for long setups on weakness. Naked shorts are road kill. Hedging with a short is considered, but only in limited and exceptional circumstances, and then with only less than 50% hedged, if and when it is appropriate. Long is the strategy for at least the next 6 months or so.
Trade well and prosper. Spock. https://spockm.com/2016/02/06/spock-miners-matrix-newsflash/
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Well maybe today you can be a little Emotional !
Meanwhile, back at the oil well… less than 1 gram of gold per barrel. Hey, silver:oil ratio just broke above 33 yr high!
The gold:oil ratio is now 43. It already broke out above a thirty year high at 33.30 weeks ago, went to 39, backed off to re-test 33 and now voom! It’s 43.
As far as I can tell the only time gold:oil was around 40 was in about 1933 and that was not a very good year for the financial system.
This is the region where a barrel of oil is worth less than a gram of gold by the way.
JUST OUT OF CURIOSITY, I thought one minute ago … how about silver? It must be back to around a silver: oil ratio of 0.5:1 … and it is. In fact, silver has just broken above its 33-year high relative to oil.
I was looking to see if $1180 held on gold after the $1201 high. I thought maybe that would be the perfect correction target. It was (so far) and that is just so right in order to feel bullish. Now the move has voomed up to $1240 on gold.
Rick Ackerman would like that. The past 5 days have been almost a perfect ABCD type pattern (a la Trident Trading). The midpoint pivot P halfway through the CD leg was quickly obliterated. Here is that chart. Elegant!
Looking at pitchforks instead, the blue one has a target around $1245 at the upper parallel, see chart below. Gold already hit $240 today 11 Feb 2016, so maybe that is close enough, now backed off a tiny bit to $1238. One might expect a pullback from the top of the blue fork – it could even retrace to the bottom line at $1080 or the median line at $1165.
The faint green pitchfork median line was at around $1220 and that has already been surpassed.
If this move does not stop at $1245, then it is a runaway impulsive move. The large pitchfork tops out around $1390, almost equal to the early 2014 high – check the top right and top left of the chart below. That would again make beautiful symmetry:
I would like to note the almost complete ignoring of horizontal resistances at $1180 and $1191 in these upside moves, although there was a pullback to $1180 out of courtesy, one might say. The median line of the blue pitchfork ($1165) is where the fastest part of the upmove was and that is not atypical.
Daniela Cambone with Jim Grant – great interview:
Fabulous. I listened to this seven times already last night and today while eating my meals. It made them go down better.
Gold broke out today above the falling wedge in my post below. And as we can see, it is now at the EMA150 on the weekly, circa 1240. I think it will correct here and BT the falling wedge, i.e. back to circa 1200.
TA is one thing …BUT…Trader Dan is quite something else
The Why and What Behind the Charts
Nobody explains it like Dan
Franco Nevada is getting desperate. They are issuing equity to buy a stream on a Glencore copper mine. These streamers will die on the backs of the base metals guys. They are so desperate to grow that they are doing deals with bankrupt companies. Avoid the streamers and stick to the miners in this cycle… avoid FNV SLW RGLD. All are garbage now that they are in bed with base metal producers.
Banks and economy seem to be in BIG trouble.
Well, I have been trying to describe and explain what was coming for quite a while now. So, here we are, all is set now, all systems are go. WTI has BT its h&s which, as Rambus also highlighted, is the BT to the larger 1 year h&s. So has CRB. When I wrote my first posts about the final deflationary phase some time ago some told me to get real.
In my posts on this trading case I have been focusing maybe 80% on everything oil and 20% on SM, TLT, currencies, other commodities and PM. This because I think that everything oil have the largest potential and also that its drop have the least risk to be directly manipulated by the CBs.
DOWN: oil, comm, sm, eur, gbp, probably YEN after a while
UP: USD, TLT and probably the pm miners (and maybe even gold as it does well in big deflation)
There are so, so many signs in the charts, even from just today, e.g. the 1 and 2 hour line chart on DWTI has a bullish rising wedge.
The post below is still valid.
For further info, check my previous posts, follow the links. I have also posted many charts on beautiful SM setups, and very early TLT setups, plus on CRB, the EUR etc.
Not very many has commented the longer posts I think, which really surprises me and has been missed, but I hope you are onboard anyway.
Below are my thoughts on how I think it will play out going forward:
I can add one thing to this post and that is that, if the strong deflationary move begins in a few days, which I think it might, GOLD might not make much more of a correction than its 1180 as I see it.
We have of course had high deflation for maybe 1-1,5 years already at least but what awaits now is the final deflationary phase, which will be more of a collapse. Orderly or not so orderly, we will see. Two things are for sure though; it will be interesting and profitable. And a temporary disaster for EM, but they will come creaming out of the starting blocks afterwards, together with everything energy and also probably technology. This is history in the making, and we are right on top of it.
Good luck to you all. And we have to remember to follow the charts, not the media BS along the way down.
I think that what we have been seeing the last weeks is a lot of oil related stuff hanging on to their BT levels and hoping that the last drop below oil´s 1 year neckline is a fakeout. Well, it isn´t, and they will start to drop big very soon. Both Exxon and Chevron can be put in this described category at the moment and they are about to fall out of bed is my guess. The drop recently in XLE has been all but those two companies. When they join the party, XLE will change gears, together with e.g. EEM and FXI.
My final PO for WTI was 13-15 but I have revised it to 15-20.
In my last post about Sweden there is a chart that shows how the rebound after massive, global QE could look like.
I thought, “Wouldn’t it be marvellous if gold corrects to $1180 and bounces from there ,considering it’s such a key previous support level from 2013?”
What happened today? Gold bounced from just over $1180. I wonder if it will hold.
This company keeps buying undervalued assets (Gold Canyon was one of these).
Could be this a good buy in the hope that in the end all these cheap acquisition will make this stock take off?
This could be the third successful creatures build by Keith Neumeyer.
Just trying to anticipate moves, this is a ways off but would take the Euro to the 114 level, Armstrong mentioned this level a while back when he was mentioning the gold rise. This would give us the move in commodities, gold and currencies I have been anticipating.
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If there are any Larry Edelson followers here, he has called a bottom in gold with some caveats. He called a bottom awhile ago, but recanted relatively quickly. He isnt a constant bottom caller and I think his advice is worth reading. There seems to be some confusion about what this latest move in gold represents and that comes through in his update today at Money and Markets.
Good to see your old bones here.
No need to check the Spock matrix – you cannot get in to see it until the new Spock site is up and running. There is no access to his historical work, unfortunately. From here on in you’ll have to pay to see it.
Just so you know!