EURO Approaching critical levels???

sc (6)

Volume

Jdst was nearly double last weeks volume(and new all time highs) but at the recent high 41.83 x vol 14 m approx = 585m bucks traded vs this week at 14.76 x 39m shares traded =

drum roll please……

575 million

so whats it all about alfie? buyers vs sellers, not necessarily volume because it is scewed by these etf’s re balancing at the end of day(take a look at the volume surge every day at 3:05 on the nose practically…and the change of direction. Who can decifer this stuff? likely a good reason to watch oba and a/d instead of volume?

Some Dollar Charts

Long Term Linear Line ( THE BREAKOUT )

dx

Long Term Linear Log (THE TARGET)

dx

Weekly Candlesticks (THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT)

weekly

Daily (THE WAVES AND THE A B C)

dx

Rambus Recent target

dx

GOLD CHART ANNOTATED WITH SUPER TRADER INDEX

GOLD_MOMO_DOWN

 

 

 

Sorry guys,   I don’t know how to get these in focus.

Use this and go to full screen

http://screencast.com/t/vsvkybBqawNe

Long Long term Gold Silver DX and PA

Gold Silver DX and PA VERY LONG TERM CHARTS 10 to 20 years  

The moving averages are 36 48 and 96 months… That’s  3 year, 4 year and pink 8 year  SMAs.

FIB TARGETS Show interesting  sequence of targets.  GOLD 1136  |  SILVER 13.76  |  PLATINUM 1182.3

THE DX wants 89.87  

 These are FIB PIVOTS  drawing an  A B C pattern  The yellow line is 25% Entry, Black 50% and Green Bold Target

Try this if it’s out of focus  http://screencast.com/t/AJmf7pmf23jN

ALL 4 Charts  http://screencast.com/t/H3bFhmtDcMSX

 

GC_Large

When Matrix Speaks I Listen !

From Matrix ( I am fortunate to get occasional emails from him )

I see Mr Yen sold all positions at the open Fri….100% cash based on the action below setting up once again a human decision to trade not the indicators and with all that’s going on next week looking to be on the sidelines regardless:

Draghi talking down Euro$ which sets up a “must” act on the Dec 4th ECB meeting or risk losing all credibility.

$Swiss tanking…..of course the US$ was reacting off these two negative moves

$CAD was bullish as our inflation rate jumping suggesting BOC stance will now be changing to a possible rate hike outlook in 2015….complete BS

Aus$ gets bid on the back of the idea the China rate cut will be commodity bullish

Next week could produce some insane swings as the tug-of-war between the central bank actions producing an inflationary pop can actually take hold, we think not and those who bought commodities will see the FX markets correctly positioning the outcome….higher US$ will be the results, lower commodities.

With the following data out next week we think being a couple days late to the real trend that hopefully shows its hand by Fri to Monday Dec1 is the correct approach setting up 1 more decent % gain during Dec to close out a great year.

Mon: GoldnSilver options expiry…….BOJ minutes = could further weaken $Yen….Japan has been a well known mess for a very long time and the BOJ has been very aggressive for the last two years as it seems now the focus will be on Draghi and the Euro zone so the $Swiss could well be the leading gold indicator going forward….the Weekly $Yen/Gold is suggesting so and we’ll look for the Monthly to confirm the switch.

**** if it hadn’t been for the PBOC rate cut gold would have been testing $1160 again off the currency action Draghi created and the PBOC as their rate cut is $ bullish within the currency markets but was also seen bullish within the commodity sector…..the fade of that trade into the close was telling.

Tues: US GDP and consumer confidence = both could add further $ gains

Wed: US Durable goods

Thurs: German unemployment…..German CPI…..Japan CPI

***Opec meeting could create a continued lower trend or reverse the trend for the next quarter

Fri: Euro zone CPI……Canada’s GDP=who cares!

So the two economies worried the most about Deflation Europe (Germany) and Japan have inflation data out, do the govies BS the numbers suggesting their aggressive policies are warranted or do they come in slightly up beat leaving 2015 for true data points? and further action?

Swiss vote next weekend could have a big effect on the SFranc sending gold along for the ride as the PBOC rate cut fades off and currencies take over the true trend.

All the action of the central banksters is highlighting the global Deflationary trend in play especially the rate cut out of China

Obviously we could careless what unfolds just give us a trend for Dec…..as we apply our very simple indicators as currency traders are a simple bunch………<..>

I see Danny boy nailed the action with his Dollar commentary!

Exciting action…………… Matrix

……………

For new members YOU TOO TRADERJIM

here is the Matrix page

http://matrix.goldtadise.com/

Tothemoon

Be careful what you wish for..IF this is a fractal of 1980..we have a ways to go

gold-1

DBC, CCI – Commodities Indexes ready for a rally?

scDR8FPI3F scHYIGM6O6

Hello from new member Trader Jim

Hello, Just got off the phone with FullGoldCrown and he welcomed us to the site.  I hope to be able to contribute to the knowledge base and support and learn as well.  I am 58, experienced trader and a recovering gold-a-holic, lol.  I will work up some charts and start sharing this weekend.  if you would like to reach me I am aktrader on s k y p e. or aktrader1 (at) gmail.  Thanks again to FGC.  My trading buddy Trader Jack will be joining us soon. ~ Jim

 

Thinking about taking a position in Natural Gas

scH1WIMJSW scMPUD9EHV

or does the negative divergence and the Bollinger Band break suggest MUCH lower prices?

 

Perspective on the BGMI long term

bgmi

so gold went up 2500% from 35 to 875 in the 70s shares did 3700%

2000″s gold up 770% and shares up 800%

where’s the beef? I mean bubble, I want my bubble damn it.

Round Trip Chart from Silver Fox at the chartology forum

huigold

GDXJ WITH ANOTHER “RANDOM” TREND LINE…

gdxj

The black one worked I drew a few months ago…let’s see if the pink holds as resistance…

“Gold has been the tell for the bear market and my work leads me to believe the bottom is ahead and not behind us”

Article with great gold charts…

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article/35874/golds-volatility-and-other-things-to-watch?utm_source=mcverryreport.com

Wow

Definately some disconnects all over re Currencies and Gold

This is getting Interesting

as Mr Yen points out The Yen has been dropping hard but Gold has not…since Nov 7

Matrix said the key would be the Swiss frank as IF the Swiss vote yes to the gold

referendum the frank would strengthen and so would gold

also of course Gold goes dow with the euro ..usually

Well…this morning Draghi must have said something euro negative

The Swiss frank and euro are tanking hard but Gold is going UP !

That is a huge disconnect so far…just one day BUT !

Also note the Aussie Dollar (commodity currency) is up very strongly today

I think this usually means China is reporting good economic expansion

so maybe gold is trading off of that !!

Sheesh….this is incredibly wild right now

Glad I am flat

Daneric’s Elliott Waves

He thinks that gold bottomed as well.Gold (3)

No Charts – Just Audio

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2014/11/18/(Interview,-516-min.)-Gold-We-ve-Got-a-High-Confidence-Forecast.aspx#axzz3JfkkNB00

GDXJ RESISTANCE LINE…

JDST

When Matrix speaks some listen

Those that do improve their trading

Matrix did a 3 week spot here at Goldtent and was a huge hit… here is his page

http://matrix.goldtadise.com/

He just recently retired from active trading but he keeps in touch with his friend Mr Yen
( also a retired Currency Trader… named aptly apparently)

Spoke with Mr Yen today, gold has decoupled from $YEN since Nov 7th for what ever reason, focus of trend should be off Swiss Franc…….we are not going to hold any positions heading into the Swiss gold vote after this Wed reaction to the polls as we’ll let the Hedge funds go nuts and show us the trend in play after the smoke clears…..still holding long HGU and SLW from the 10th waiting for Draghi’s Germany speech this Fri and next weeks US GDP data

CHEER$

Matrix
……………….

PS Rumour has it Mr Yen has a real honest target eventually of 666 Gold

wouldnt that be something !

That would bring back the conspiracy theorist in me !!

Fully

Yen the playbook is in jeopardy

http://scharts.co/1yvwJwM

wha happened?

pu 2?

http://scharts.co/1qwiv8E

NG Longterm Chart…

NG

Tothemoon…

ugaz

Negative Divergence building on CCI and RSI. See the gap. Possible entry to go long…

Bubble rankings

interesting

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparisonsRankings.php

wonder what the share certs are worth ….G..

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparisonBRE-X.php

parabolic was when gold went up 120% in 36 trading days.. wow. maybe this could never happen in todays world.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/BubbleComparisonsFutures.php

GDXJ Volume

Second largest on record today

gdxj

GDX too (If I wanted a backtest I’d go to a Chiropractor)

gdx

BIG CONNUNDRUM

All 4 Horsmen and Rider running north BUT all 4 Moving Averages Riding South

Trader Dan

Had Enough of Roller Coaster Rides Yet?

My kids love to ride those wickedly wild roller coasters, the kind that leave your stomach suspended in mid-air at the top of the track while the cart is already down at the bottom of the valley. Every now and then, against my better judgment, I will let them twist my arm enough to strap myself into one of those things just so that I can inflict on myself the same punishment that they seem to delight in inflicting on themselves.

There was one coaster we went to where they had a camera set up with a strobe light that snapped your picture as your cart went past it on a particularly treacherous portion of the ride. I recall looking through those when we finished the ride and were lingering around at the customer staging area to see what the expression on my face was out of sheer curiosity. Yep – it looked like I was the victim of one of those infamous native American Indians, the Apaches, torture of their white eye prisoners.

After watching the doings in gold and silver this AM, I could wear my kids somehow strapped me back into one of those infernal roller coasters!

Look at the Gold Volatility Index and tell me how anyone in their right mind can try to trade this stuff at the moment? I have heard of “day-traders”. Hey, that is long term – try “15 second interval traders” for the new kids on the block!

As I have said just recently – if this keeps up much longer in the precious metals, look for margin requirement hikes very soon…. Small traders – I STRONGLY URGE you to be very, very careful in here. I do not care whether you are bullish or bearish. Betting the farm on a move either way is akin to hari-kari. Want to end any fledgling trading career you might have? Then go ahead and “Bet the Farm”, or “Load the Truck” or whatever. Don’t complain when they carry you out.

Let the volatility die down some if you want to trade large. By the way – ignore ALL NEWSLETTER WRITERS RIGHT NOW. Not a single one of them have the least clue as to which way this thing is going to go. Roll the dice and you have as much chance of getting it right.

Option guys – take notice once again!

FGC This is for you…

bells

Dow gold

at channel top and reversing?

http://scharts.co/1ynZwU1

SPX 30 Running out of steam…

SPX 30

Some Pretty Amazing Charts from Sir Parabolic Chick at the Chartology Forum

who says Ta doesn’t work ?

Chuck is up over 100% in just a year and a half

and he was a rank beginner when he joined up

……………………………

I sold finally and rebought close to $14 JDST today. Oh well. Seems low risk here for me. I will sell it though if we go just a LITTLE bit higher. The GDXJ double top trendline and the XAU backtest are going to be the two things that could get me to sell and sit… Be watching those close tomorrow…

Here’s some charts:

chart1

chart2

chart3

chart4

chart5

chart6

chart7

chart8

chart9

chart10

chart11

chart12

chart13

Trader Dan

Gold Taking Cues from Forex Market Movements

Take a look at the following chart comparing the price of the Euro ( in BLACK ) to the price of Gold ( in YELLOW).

During December of last year, and January of this year, the linkage broke down but beginning in February the two have moved in almost perfect lockstep with one another. The connection has been especially tight since this past summer.

The take away from this is rather simple at this point – Tell me what the Euro is going to do next and I will tell you with relative confidence what gold will do.

This morning there was news out of Germany that their ZEW index, a measure of economic confidence, rose in the month of November, the first time it has done so in a year. That produced a big impact in the Euro which completely erased its losses from yesterday ( do you ever get the feeling we are trading yo-yo’s and not real markets?) and then added some for good measure. Back down went the Dollar and what do you think gold did? Yep – it moved higher.

The point in all this is that gold is completely at the mercy of developments occurring in the Foreign exchange markets at the moment. There is still widespread weakness across the commodity sector with crude and the grains move lower today.

I should also note that it looks to me like there is a line of thinking that continues to be seen out there which is regarding the sharp selloff in the crude oil and liquid energy markets as STIMULATIVE IN NATURE for the global economy. It is not the majority view but it is out there nonetheless.

Thus far the sell off in crude has fed into the deflationary/slowing global growth scenario. This scenario is NOT BULLISH FOR GOLD OR SILVER. I cannot say this strongly enough.

I have said it before and will say it again and again – my inbox is filled with articles from gold and silver perma bulls constantly finding fault with the US economic performance as they focus on this negative aspect of a set of economic data or that negative aspect. I have yet to find ONE article sent by any of them noting anything positive about the global economy, anywhere. It is all uniformly negative. Yet, they turn around in the very same breath and announce how bullish this is for gold and silver prices? Excuse me – but what in the world do they think has been has happening to gold and silver prices over the last three years, and in particular, the last two years?

SLOW GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IS NOT BULLISH FOR PRECIOUS METALS PRICES. It is that simple. They need growth, lots of it. The kind of growth which sends the Velocity of Money rising and kicks up inflation worries. That has not been present and as a result, metals prices have been sinking lower. It has nothing to do with some supposed manipulation of the prices of the metals by bullion banks acting as agents of the Fed and everything to do with deflationary fears and a strong US Dollar.

Today we got a bit of a glimpse what might happen to metals prices if the Central Bank efforts to produce an inflation rate of 2% might actually be successful. Notice the very sharp response in the Euro to that improved economic confidence reading!

I would suggest to gold and silver perma bulls that they stop dissing US economic data and actually start rooting for solid growth prospects, not just here, but globally if they wish to see their metals run higher for more than a short period of time.

Just a head’s up – along that line, we are going to get some fundamental type news this week.

Gold managed to briefly change the handle from “11” to “12” but it has not lasted very long. Mining shares are still strong at this hour however, so the bull’s prospects are improving. They will however have to face the FOMC minutes and see whether or not they can weather any potential impact from those.

The HUI chart looks quite strong at the moment, exactly what one wants to see if they want gold prices to move higher. Notice that the index has closed another downside gap and is actually trading above that gap at the moment. That is very bullish price action!

The index is essentially attempting to work its way back to the downside breakout point made in early October. I have noted that area as “BIG TEST”. If this is something more than a bounce in the ongoing bearish trend, albeit a very strong bounce, the index will have to push past this zone and CLOSE ABOVE IT.

If it were able to do this, gold should easily regain a “12” handle and one can say that a more lasting bottom is in this market. If it fails to do that, and retreats lower back down below that gap, that will signal a period of sideways movement in price or what we refer to as consolidation. Stay tuned.

By the way, those of you who want to do so, might wish a Happy Birthday to GLD. It was exactly TEN YEARS ago that it opened up and began trading. There was a note on the wire services that in its first three days of trading, it took in more than $1 billion!