The failure of a perfect setup in the SPX reversion-to-mean trade and other market indicators argues that the 10/15 flash crash low started a STOCK MARKET BLOWOFF phase that is intensifying based on global GE, past and present, in the four major economies …. looking for a possible test of Nasdaq 5000 by X-mas …. any pullback in the QQQ going into Wednesday should be bought.
Expecting major move soon…one way or the other
The GDX may have finished a Large Wave A down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 – have we started a Wave B rally?
From an Elliott Wave point of view, we may have finished 5-waves down from July 2011 to Nov 2014 (Wave A) and we may have started a Wave B bounce that could last a few months. This is a possible count if the 5th wave does not extend here. Since we did 5-waves down from 2011, this implies more correction in time and price but maybe not right away.
The “small trader” component of the Comex gold COT report is showing historical levels of shorting after being bullish and wrong for three years running – CONTRARY BULLISH – this should be a worrisome point for those looking for $900 gold by early 2015.
The SPX gave us a beautiful set up for a “reversion to mean” trade on Friday’s gap up opening courtesy of the ECB QE purchases and the lowering of rates in China. Some traders took a nice day trading profit on the morning’s decline – however, another leg down is possible into Tuesday.
The SPX rallied into the New Moon Timing window on Friday and this peaking energy held the markets up on Monday. We are looking for another leg down on Tuesday to below the 9-day EMA. The SPX may be vulnerable to a swift decline heading into the shortened holiday week.
Check out my blog to follow this trade idea:
Great Article on Oil Prices and OPEC
Posted on November 24, 2014,12:40 pm by Trader Dan
I suggest that my readers take some time out to read the following most interesting article in the London Telegraph. Leave it to the British financial press to publish these excellent reads.
No matter how one feels about crude oil, it is a fact that its price has collapsed. Some of this of course is tied to the slowdown in global economic growth, but it is indisputable that it is also tied to the emergence of the US as a powerhouse in crude oil production.
Crude is one of those commodities that impacts nearly everyone one on the planet as energy costs are part of the food we eat, the heating and cooling of our homes, offices and buildings, and the transportation of the goods that we consume. Lower crude prices are a boon to consumers at a time in which wages are relatively stagnant.
Personally I believe lower oil prices have far more impact on the consumer than any QE programs implemented by the Central Banks or interest rate cuts by China. Those assume that lower rates will spur borrowing and thus economic growth but what guarantee is there that just because money is cheaper to borrow, that folks will make a beeline to the nearest bank to do just that?
However, cheaper energy costs are felt immediately by everyone putting more disposable income in the pocket of the consumer and lower business costs in moving goods or in their production.
This came in from a good friend. Also love this site, www.globalresearch.ca
The story that interested me most was the one on the state bank of North Dakota. N.D. is doing well financially, unlike the other 49 states and it is claimed it is because of their state bank. The article is by Ellen Brown, whose book, Web of Debt, I read and even though I have a hard time understanding our money system, her book was understandable. http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-success-of-public-banking-bank-of-north-dakota-outperforms-wall-street/5415100
I asked our governor-elect before he was elected about getting a state bank in Illinois, he didn’t think much of the idea.
POSTED IN Rambus Forum – Delayed Post
GDXJ Daily, we are fighting this up move in the Super Traders Index
JNUG 2 hour not looking good
Daniel code has sell orders on GOLD and SILVER.
Low for JDST came 1 hr into market day
FIB TARGETS 17 +/-
My signal called the TOP at 1900
Wish I had developed this signal back then… ; – )
Doing some long term work a-la Ramb. Different views same objective – to 798
Jdst was nearly double last weeks volume(and new all time highs) but at the recent high 41.83 x vol 14 m approx = 585m bucks traded vs this week at 14.76 x 39m shares traded =
drum roll please……
so whats it all about alfie? buyers vs sellers, not necessarily volume because it is scewed by these etf’s re balancing at the end of day(take a look at the volume surge every day at 3:05 on the nose practically…and the change of direction. Who can decifer this stuff? likely a good reason to watch oba and a/d instead of volume?
Sorry guys, I don’t know how to get these in focus.
Use this and go to full screen
Gold Silver DX and PA VERY LONG TERM CHARTS 10 to 20 years
The moving averages are 36 48 and 96 months… That’s 3 year, 4 year and pink 8 year SMAs.
FIB TARGETS Show interesting sequence of targets. GOLD 1136 | SILVER 13.76 | PLATINUM 1182.3
THE DX wants 89.87
These are FIB PIVOTS drawing an A B C pattern The yellow line is 25% Entry, Black 50% and Green Bold Target
Try this if it’s out of focus http://screencast.com/t/AJmf7pmf23jN
ALL 4 Charts http://screencast.com/t/H3bFhmtDcMSX
From Matrix ( I am fortunate to get occasional emails from him )
I see Mr Yen sold all positions at the open Fri….100% cash based on the action below setting up once again a human decision to trade not the indicators and with all that’s going on next week looking to be on the sidelines regardless:
Draghi talking down Euro$ which sets up a “must” act on the Dec 4th ECB meeting or risk losing all credibility.
$Swiss tanking…..of course the US$ was reacting off these two negative moves
$CAD was bullish as our inflation rate jumping suggesting BOC stance will now be changing to a possible rate hike outlook in 2015….complete BS
Aus$ gets bid on the back of the idea the China rate cut will be commodity bullish
Next week could produce some insane swings as the tug-of-war between the central bank actions producing an inflationary pop can actually take hold, we think not and those who bought commodities will see the FX markets correctly positioning the outcome….higher US$ will be the results, lower commodities.
With the following data out next week we think being a couple days late to the real trend that hopefully shows its hand by Fri to Monday Dec1 is the correct approach setting up 1 more decent % gain during Dec to close out a great year.
Mon: GoldnSilver options expiry…….BOJ minutes = could further weaken $Yen….Japan has been a well known mess for a very long time and the BOJ has been very aggressive for the last two years as it seems now the focus will be on Draghi and the Euro zone so the $Swiss could well be the leading gold indicator going forward….the Weekly $Yen/Gold is suggesting so and we’ll look for the Monthly to confirm the switch.
**** if it hadn’t been for the PBOC rate cut gold would have been testing $1160 again off the currency action Draghi created and the PBOC as their rate cut is $ bullish within the currency markets but was also seen bullish within the commodity sector…..the fade of that trade into the close was telling.
Tues: US GDP and consumer confidence = both could add further $ gains
Wed: US Durable goods
Thurs: German unemployment…..German CPI…..Japan CPI
***Opec meeting could create a continued lower trend or reverse the trend for the next quarter
Fri: Euro zone CPI……Canada’s GDP=who cares!
So the two economies worried the most about Deflation Europe (Germany) and Japan have inflation data out, do the govies BS the numbers suggesting their aggressive policies are warranted or do they come in slightly up beat leaving 2015 for true data points? and further action?
Swiss vote next weekend could have a big effect on the SFranc sending gold along for the ride as the PBOC rate cut fades off and currencies take over the true trend.
All the action of the central banksters is highlighting the global Deflationary trend in play especially the rate cut out of China
Obviously we could careless what unfolds just give us a trend for Dec…..as we apply our very simple indicators as currency traders are a simple bunch………<..>
I see Danny boy nailed the action with his Dollar commentary!
Exciting action…………… Matrix
For new members YOU TOO TRADERJIM
here is the Matrix page
Hello, Just got off the phone with FullGoldCrown and he welcomed us to the site. I hope to be able to contribute to the knowledge base and support and learn as well. I am 58, experienced trader and a recovering gold-a-holic, lol. I will work up some charts and start sharing this weekend. if you would like to reach me I am aktrader on s k y p e. or aktrader1 (at) gmail. Thanks again to FGC. My trading buddy Trader Jack will be joining us soon. ~ Jim
so gold went up 2500% from 35 to 875 in the 70s shares did 3700%
2000″s gold up 770% and shares up 800%
where’s the beef? I mean bubble, I want my bubble damn it.
“Gold has been the tell for the bear market and my work leads me to believe the bottom is ahead and not behind us”
Article with great gold charts…
Definately some disconnects all over re Currencies and Gold
This is getting Interesting
as Mr Yen points out The Yen has been dropping hard but Gold has not…since Nov 7
Matrix said the key would be the Swiss frank as IF the Swiss vote yes to the gold
referendum the frank would strengthen and so would gold
also of course Gold goes dow with the euro ..usually
Well…this morning Draghi must have said something euro negative
The Swiss frank and euro are tanking hard but Gold is going UP !
That is a huge disconnect so far…just one day BUT !
Also note the Aussie Dollar (commodity currency) is up very strongly today
I think this usually means China is reporting good economic expansion
so maybe gold is trading off of that !!
Sheesh….this is incredibly wild right now
Glad I am flat