Goldtent TA Paradise

Mind the Gap.

AG (NYSE) Daily

Looking strong. Could be reaching resistance soon. Target on the IHS is 21. The long-term target on the weekly chart is 39.

There is a great deal of bullish sentiment about for the PMs.
Notice that we have dulling patterns on the daily chart of this Silver miner.

FR.TO – Daily

Here is the weekly chart. I ask myself – Would I, should I buy this stock today?

FR.TO – Weekly

I want to be bullish, but am having a spot of trouble pulling the trigger just yet.

One of my fellow Stan Weinstein compatriots posted this… What you guys think?

Here’s Why First Majestic Is The Best Silver Miner Right Now $AG $SLV

This Chart gives us Hope that the Silver Bull may be Approaching.

After that Rampage in First Half 2016 it dropped like a Rock !

Who knew it would thereafter meander sideways to down for this long.

How are the mighty fallen in the midst of battle! FR.TO Daily

FR.TO Weekly

The ratio of First Majestic to silver has reached the very significant lows seen in 2010 and 2016 (see weekly ratio chart below).

Are we headed back up to the top of the range?

As a silver bull, I believe it will head back up.  However, I am not so sure we get the moonshots we got out of the 2010 low (when silver went to $50) and the 2016 low.

FWIW, the uplegs and down legs appear to follow 3 year periods roughly (up 2009-2012, down 2013-2016, up 2018-2021, down 2021-2024, up 2024-2027?).  The only period that is a little messy is 2016 to 2019, since the ratio appear to have made a double bottom over a year between 2018 and 2019.

In the daily chart, below, you can see a false breakdown out of the H&S top.  Also, there has been a positive divergence in all of the momentum indicators (noted by the trendlines), and the daily stochastics have come out of oversold.

If one is a shareholder, there is a a $0.50 per oz discount on the present $26 per oz price.  This is roughly $4 less than Kitco.

Would one take a big hit on the resale price?

The Ultimate Macro Driver for Precious Metals (well real yields are the best.. but this gonna lead to capped short term rates.. so inflation gonna do the rest)

Silver’s Massive Arc. Neckline Target.

Same for Gold.

How to choose best time to go long a specific stock vs the index or sector it’s in.

These are some of the bigger boys in the silver mining industry.

I do like Mag Silver. It has a huge deposit of high grade silver, and will be an efficient low cost producer. But the chart looks bearish.
MAG.TO – MONTHLY

Pan American Silver is another excellent company. It broke out to new all time highs, and then…
A failed breakout is usually a bearish signal.
PAAS.TO – MONTHLY

First Majestic is a cult favorite. It, too, broke out to new all time highs, then failed. Another bearish signal.
FR.TO – MONTHLY

Note the monthly MACDs.

The shine, it seems, is off the PM sector. Especially Silver. At least for now.

EDR.TO – ENDEAVOUR SILVER

FVI.TO – FORTUNA SILVER

FR.TO – FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER

MAG – MAG SILVER

SIL.TO – SILVER CREST METALS

Many of you may not be aware, so sharing this:

On Gab’s and Reddit’s wallstreetsilver pages people are SERIOUS about blasting off silver.

These are different than Reddit’s wallstreetbets- groups of people are branching off and creating their own majorly followed group pages now with the main goal of launching silver- There are 30,000+ members on Reddit’s silversqueeze page and growing daily).
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/

Gab’s Wallstreetbets is up to 25,000 people and their main goal is to also blast off silver with Neonrevolt, Gab’s most respected member in my opinion, as the main cheerleader for silver launch:
https://gab.com/groups/4204

People are putting everything they can in silver. Buying physical and PSLV. Pictures posted daily of new purchases. Lots of excitement. People are trying to pull off a Hunt Brother’s move. People are even going to take their stimulus checks and buy all the silver they can.

I’ve personally poured a bunch into physical and PSLV (I would recommend selling your SLV tomorrow and buying PSLV which we know actually puts the money they receive into physical silver- people speculate SLV may not…)

This is the moment and time for silver. This is the calm before the storm. It’s still early….

From:
https://gab.com/DavidJensen/posts/105765236770270566

Silver lease rates, one of the last lines of defense shows the extreme tightness in the silver market.

Good videos to watch below perhaps at 1.5x-2x speed:

Great video with charts on the short squeeze-
Wallstreet Silver: Technical Analysis: Silver Squeeze Coming? How to Play it?:
https://youtu.be/CK5COZ7rLSE

He shows above how the logarithmic price target of the MAJOR cup and handle on silver, which Rambus has also shown, with the cup forming from the 1970’s top to the 2011 top and the handle forming lately is around $700ish silver!

His chart from the video:

Action not seen in decades. Good short video:
Silver Bullion 1,000 oz bar tightness and rising premiums:
https://youtu.be/rJSFIGw08OY

So silver shortage is spreading to wholesale market. Worsening by the day.

What’s happening at the dealers? IT’S INSANE. This dealer “Can’t even get 1,000 oz bars till MARCH. Highest premiums he’s ever seen.” He believes “the comex is BRACING FOR A SQUEEZE” The #silversqueeze is happening! Gonna break soon. THIS IS A MUST LISTEN:
https://youtu.be/Q2BtRn4pcrc

Highly respected Chris Vermeulen said on Friday that the silver squeeze HASN’T EVEN STARTED:
https://youtu.be/vuhcnqfF0tk

PSLV breakout and backtest(usually best time to buy):

First Majestic Silver’s multi-year breakout and Backtest:

There’s a bit of a war going on… the banks are fighting this.

This won’t be able to be stopped this time though…. why? Because the physical shortages developing and coming are too extreme… can fake the paper silver market like they have for decades but not the PHYSICAL MARKET WHICH IS BEING TARGETED and will BREAK THE PAPER MARKET!

I think we are about to find out.  My 3 biggest positions are and have been AG, EXK and AXU.  I do believe these are a great representation of  strength/weakness in the sector.

If price manages to get and stay above the upper 200 day Bollinger band (200,2), I think it’s likely we are going to see a massive move in this sector, similar to 2010-11.   EXK has already managed to accomplish this.  Notice also how EXK’s 50 day upper BB is about to cross above the 200 day upper BB.  If the other two can follow EXK’s lead in this respect, I think we are going to be well on our way to something very special.

Will this silver miner bounce? It looks to be as great a moment as ever! Smart Money seems to believe the trade…

Not sure about this silver miner… looks tricky… lets see if we can test the right hemisphere one more time

Needed to feel less guilty about not owning any precious metal (other than paper), or a few Royal Canadian Mint proof sets from the 1990’s…

Headed to Kitco offices in down town Montreal and fetched some half-dollar Koala’s (2011).

And this set minted by First Majestic (also 2011).

I can now sleep better…

These 2 are pretty highly regarded larger cap silver miners and they are looking very poorly

Hopefully its company Specific but …..

Endeavour Silver

First Majestic Silver

Who’s next ?

Maybe the Juniors are OK ?

Unless we can hold around here…there may be one more big flush before we can go to the moon .

Bracing

Here are a few observations from the Silver Summit. Just a few thoughts as opposed to a comprehensive view. First off the turnout was pretty dismal compared to previous years. That’s partially because this conference is conducted simultaneously with the grand daddy of financial conferences the New Orleans financial conference, so I am sure a lot of attendees were siphoned off. Nevertheless, it was an interesting contrast as opposed to say the 2010 or 2011 show when silver was riding high. Back then there were 2-3X the number of companies represented and everyone was of course fired up back in those pre-POR days. Overall its pretty clear the silver crowd has been fully neutered and bullish sentiment has been fully eradicated. So bullish sentiment is completely gone now, however I thought it interesting that the gold/silver bug narrative of evil FED prints money leads to hyperinflation is still very much alive. There is just a lot of confusion as to why it has not happened yet. At $18 silver there is not much belief from anyone that prices could dip much lower. Whenever I expressed my view that silver could trade down to $12 (I didn’t even mention the possibility of $8) it was not met with hostility as in previous years , but just as an impossibility. So bottom line the average silver bug is no longer living in denial, but they just don’t have any model to explain to them what has happened. There was an exception, however and that would be the views held by Dr. Mike Berry and John Kaiser. These are some of the few who actually get the big picture.

As far as ideas, I took a look at the companies and spoke with management. Simply stated Primary silver producers are in deep trouble. Since 70% of all silver comes from secondary recovery, (copper and gold mines) a primary producer has costs that simply cannot compete. The industry now calculates costs as all in costs as opposed to cash costs so I will use those numbers. The average cost for the primaries is likely around $17-20 so if prices trend down below that for any length of time there is going to be additional massive carnage in this industry. I would say most companies are simply not prepared for this eventuality. They are all holding on at this level hoping for the best. For the most part structural costs won’t be able to go down below $15. So its going to be interesting to say the least. Before comments on individual companies let me answer the question of why bother with the silver space? Well here is my thinking. The silver market is made up of 2 elements in my mind. The industrial supply demand element and the silver bug, monetary or religious element. I am not sure the silver bug element will ever be removed, but it certainly is being priced out of the market equation. So I am just looking at the industrial supply demand side of it. Maybe the silver bug premium gets reintroduced someday and powers the price, but I want to just plan on the industrial supply & demand reality.

So with that in mind the best 2 bottom line ideas I have on the silver market remain the same as I had last year Silver Wheaton and MAG Silver. I would not buy any of these companies until phase III runs its course, but once that event occurs these are going to be lifetime value events. We are talking 10-50 baggers in my opinion

Silver Wheaton (SLW) – This company without question is the most professional, disciplined serious company in the silver space. Over the years every person I have spoken with in this company knows his stuff, knows his numbers. No goof balls exist in this company, I have always been impressed with the talent working here. These guys have discipline, when silver was above $30 they simply refused to do any more deals, they sat on their hands. Their cost per ounce will remain around $4/oz for the indefinite future. Not only that but most of their supply comes from big name base metal producers that are not going to be shutting down even if silver does go to $8. This is the Marque silver investment play. My only reservation with this company is their use of debt for acquisitions. I drilled down on them with my concerns and feel pretty good about how they use this facility and don’t see it as a problem the way they have it structured even at $8 silver. This is the company you want to own at lower prices of course.

MAG Silver (MVG) Mag is the development play thats getting close to production. This company is now about 13 years into the making. It was conceived to make money back when silver was $4/ ounce. Super high grade with huge discovery upside and a top geo to map it out. Take a look at its stock price it has held up really well actually considering they don’t produce anything yet. $90m cash on the balance sheet with total capex of $120. They are almost there. They have held up well due to committed institutional ownership. This company allows one to sleep at night. I am waiting to buy this baby during phase III and a few of the institutional holders are forced to sell and the price gets cut in half. It won’t stay there for long however. Its a keeper.

The Big Boyz (TAHO,PAAS,HL,CDE) I listed these in order of quality. TAHO is actually the new guy and is a great company. PAAS is run well with good mgt, however Argentina properties will hold it back. HL & CDE are debt laden companies but they do have cash on their balance sheet. If we have a crash in silver that I see coming their stocks will continue to get crushed. If they don’t go BK they will have unbelievable leverage to the upside once the bull market begins so keep them on your radar. I do have to say that I was impressed with the people of CDE. This has been the most despised silver company I know with a history of being moronic, however this is changing, as they have cleaned house of 90% of previous management moved from Coeur d’Alene to Chicago. They have a top notch geo and a good shareholder rep. This is a company that bears watching I believe. I never though I would say that as I have hated this company, although they did buy my position in out in Palmarejo in Mexico, but thats why I have had such a low opinion is that they way overpaid. Anyway with higher silver prices and their stock so severely beaten down this could be the turnaround candidate of the sector. Put it on your watch list and don’t hold grudges

First Majestic (AG) This was of course the darling of the last cycle, mainly because Keith Neumeyer executed so flawlessly and delivered what he promised. He is a good operator. I am sure this will continue to be a great upside stock in the next cycle, but there are a few things I don’t like. Maybe its just me, but I place a lot on how serious a company presents itself to the public, as it is a reflection of a companies culture and discipline. That’s one reason I am so impressed with Silver Wheaton. Well Keith has chosen to place his daughter as the shareholder rep and frankly I am not impressed. She is just a girl who got a job to pass along information. She has no passion for the business along with the sidekick she has working with her. They left their company table early in the day to go goof off. She does not really know that much about the numbers of the company. With so many other companies competing for my limited investment dollars this tells me a lot and i will send them elsewhere.

Mid tier companies in trouble. I would say that all primary silver producers are in trouble mid and small cap especially. Here is a quick summary

Alexco (AXU)- Roadkill thats all their is to it. Maybe someday they survive if higher silver prices come sooner rather than later. To bad I like the CEO.

Aurcana (AUN.V) Beyond roadkill…didn’t even show up. I remember I had lunch with a guy 2 years ago who boasted he had over $1 million in this stock, its lost 97% since then.

Endeavour (EXK) well run company with a future, however they are in denial about lower prices ahead. Did not get the impression they have a plan below $16 silver

Great Panther (GPL) Same old story, good company but way overvalued and can’t survive at $16 silver. CEO is looking for an exit plan (retirement)

Silvercrest (SVL.to) Probably the best small cap silver stock. The chart has held up well actually

Fortuna (FSM)– Really a top notch company. Managed well, no drama. Will fly with better silver prices, very safe, but still goes down with lower silver prices.

Honorable mention US Silver and gold ( USA.to) This company I gave up for dead last year, but I am putting it back on my radar screen for when better days return. For two reasons management and its resource. They once had an all in cost of $33/ounce. They are on their way towards achieving $13/oz. That’s some serious restructuring. They have a huge ability to scale upward when prices start to rise. Eric Sprott owns 25% of this company. So when the silver price gets knocked down to lets say $10 it will be time to check into this company and take a look at their balance sheet and game plan….it will be time to back up the truck!

Most outlandish value speculation: Anyone ever heard of Apogee silver?, APEX silver? How about George Soros? Well back in the day in the mid 90’s when the world’s most famous billionaires (Gates, Buffett, & Soros) staked out a position in the silver market because they could smell value Soros took a primary position in a silver mine in Bolivia. This is an old mine that produces the highest grade in the world. Well through all the political threats and changes over the years it has changed hands a few times and most recently managed by Apogee silver. A very gifted Mining engineer named Neil Ringdahl has worked the project. I have spent some time in previous years speaking with Neil and he was just the right kind guy to do the job for this project, but it just wasn’t the right time. Well Apogee is getting bought out by Prophesy Coal a Canadian company with coal interests in Mongolia. Think of them as more of an incubator or holding company of projects. Prophesy coal has also been an industry casualty and its stock is down somewhere around 95%. Recall I mentioned this silver asset is the highest grade deposit in the world and is very simple type mining. Everybody always wants an outrageous shoot for the moon speculation right??? Well here one is. Maybe call this one Plungers lottery ticket. $ 🙂

OK now what you have all been waiting for my take on our gold market prognosticator Bo Polny. First let me say I always admire someone who is willing to lay it all out on the line, damned the critics. That no doubt is Bo, yet I started out with an objective non critical perspective willing to listen. Well, knights I have to come before you and report that Bo is nothing more than a confidence man armed with a few pet theories that don’t hold much water and will be sure to be shredded over time by Mr Market. I was hoping there might be something to his analysis but there just isn’t. Its mostly made up of some goofy numerology applied to cycles that just don’t hold up. As I said as a confidence man it may sound good, but the main argument is made for people that don’t know real market dates and events and can be BS’ed. Example, in his presentation he made a big deal about the number 21 and how all recessions (depressions maybe) come every 21 years. He proceeded to show a 200 year historical timeline and how this all fit. Well, that just so happens to be an area that I know pretty well off the top of my head and his attempt to fit these events to a 21 year recurring cycle was simply film flam. For instance his 21 year recession cycle landed on 1869 and this was supposed to be the down point. Well, if you know anything about stock market history 1873 was the big crash due to the liquidation of railroad debt, so this tool is totally useless since it came 4 years before the crash while he assigns the 21 year cycle to the year 1932, thats 3 years after the top. Pretty worthless tools and that was the main basis of his argument.

I am not really interested in character assassination, but I have seen these flash in the pan prognosticators before and they come and they go. They sound credible for a while but then they get humbled by the market. A case in point I recall back at the 2006 Silver summit the Keynote speaker was a guy named Jason Hummel. I am sure some out there know of him. He was a young kid who was a sensation for making outlandish predictions about the silver market and the stock prices seemed to validate him. He called for stupid prices in just a few years like $500 silver or something similar. It goes back to the old saw that people (investors) will believe anything as long as the price is going up. I remember thinking I know this guy is a flake, but maybe its me that has it wrong. Well, Jason made a ton of money on paper but eventually of course crashed and burned. The thing about Bo is if he had waited until the price of gold bottomed after phase III then started to make his misinformed outlandish predictions he would be a great success as far as selling newsletters. He started spewing his numerology stuff to me telling me that the number 12 was God’s completion number and everything is based off of it. Well time out, I know a thing or two about numerology, biblical or otherwise and its the number 7 that’s God’s completion, I pointed this out and he said some gibberish to try to dig himself out of a hole. Bottom line he ended up being a huge disappointment as its just all fluff and baseless. Now if one wants to listen to some sound reasoned prognostication one might want to subscribe to Tim Woods work. Here is a guy who is not a flake:

Tim Wood

So the silver space is a place I keep my eye on as someday it is going to be the destination to make a lot of money in my opinion, but one must be a student of the market not to get run over first.

XGD.TO Daily

EDIT ADD: First Majestic Silver

FR.TO Daily

After the recent sharp drops it’ll be a case of trying to pick bottoms in the next week or two. I’m planning to take positions in 15-20 quality miners, including 4 Uranium plays (these prices are ridiculously good value in my view). No doubt I’ll time it all wrong and get a 30% drop the next day, but I’m not too worried looking at the likely gains in the coming few years. Here are a couple of charts, the first one is First Majestic Silver, and the second one is Energy Fuels.

Didn’t want to say it, but that is the way this chartist is seeing it right now. He’s why. Many of the leading stocks are displaying negative divergences to price with the RSI, MACD, TSI, and Stochastic oscillators which, by the way, are all trending down. At the same time many of these stocks are showing potential double tops at resistance. That’s a hazardous combination.

First Majestic Silver FR.TO Daily
If the DT is in play, the lower trend line may not hold.

Alexco Silver AXR.TO Daily
At weekly resistance (blue dashed trend line)

Sandstorm Gold SSL.TO Daily
What? Even a gold streamer? Seems so.

XGD.TO (an ETF) Daily

There are just some examples of leaders that are likely heading down. There is still a slight possibility the potential DT(s) are actually bull flags in the making, but IMO that is unlikely.
Cheers all, and good trading.

EDIT. I have one more chart to post that might indicate a bearish outcome. I saved a Rambus post from early 2017. Its a weekly HUI chart where it shows that all the bear market rallies are the same height. All the blue boxes are the same, except for the one on the far right. Yes, its wider than the others, but it is the same height. Its not a definitive bearish signal, not yet, but if it tops out here, then likely it is.

We have seen these tired old charts before, but there has been some repainting along the trim edge this weekend.
Since $XEU is a lions share of the USD index (52%) we pay attention to where its headed. Right now it appears headed for consolidation. Its consolidating in a down trend, so one might expect the break out to be downside as well. Its possible the consolidation could morph into a reversal. We’ll see.

As expected the $USD is also consolidating. Would really like to see a 5 point reversal here. Its possible. A time frame for that to fully develop might be late Summer, early Fall. Again, we’ll see.

The $USDJPY Bollinger Band breaks on the September and March bottoms initiated similar patterns – Pete and Repeat on the chart. The similarity suggested a rally in $USDJPY, and it didn’t disappoint. For awhile it looked like Repeat could go all the way to the upper solid blue trend line and beyond. So far its just following along the same old path that Pete traced out. If $USDJPY rallies over the neck line of the potential inverse SHS its bearish gold, but if it “peter’s out” that’s bullish…

$GOLD daily – This chart looks terrible right now. Huge 5 point reversal. 50/200 DMA bear cross getting underway. Oscillators taking up residence in the cellar. Nevertheless, expecting a bounce here. After that, we’ll see.

For good news that’s like a fresh breeze, have another looks at North’s posts: HGU and First Majestic Silver.

Here are the new addition to GDXJ holding, change is almost 50%, I guess most of re balancing happened, may be some by end of week.

Now Pros can enter for playing, the play ground is bigger :).

Carolynsue has noted that this Exploration PM Miners Index has seen a HUGE increase in volume in recent weeks

Even as the Price has gone nowhere .IF its true that “Volume” Precedes Price” . This IS Striking !

So What is the GLDX ? Well for those who don’t want individual Company Risk in this sector it may be a reasonable

choice . Here are the Components .

https://www.etfchannel.com/lists/?a=stockholdings&symbol=GLDX

Wow …a HOLDING Company I am sure none of us have ever heard of is almost 20% of this ETF

So….Who the Hell is First Mining Finance >?

http://www.firstminingfinance.com/

Hmm…I bet Plunger Knows of this guy

First Mining’s founding Chairman, Mr. Keith Neumeyer, also co-founded First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM: TSX ) and First Majestic Silver Corp. (FR: TSX and AG: NYSE). Mr. Neumeyer has an outstanding track record for delivering value to his shareholders and First Mining is supported by First Majestic Silver which is one of the largest silver producers in the world

So if you are buying GLDX you have to wonder HOW this Very New Corporation which is in effect a Royalty Company has come to Dominate this ETF so rapidly ?

Anybody have any insights into the Miners in this Portfolio ?

you have silver sitting right on its 100 WMA (or you could use the 500 day MA on the daily chart), which in the prior bull market acted as a very strong area of support.

Next Friday also brings us the September unemployment number.  A bad number would be good for gold, one would think based on Powell’s statements on how tapering hinges on employment.

On a positive note, a number of my silver miners have been outperforming silver over the last month, FWIW.  Of course, not even a ratio will go down in a straight line, but it is at least ostensibly bullish when they are flat to up vs silver when silver has been hammered.  AG:SLV as an example is shown below.  It  has actually gotten the 20 DMA to positively cross the 50 DMA, with the 50 DMA actually maybe turning upwards slightly.  Again, put this more in the FWIW camp than a strong buy signal.  As you can see, it tried doing the same thing in June and ended up tumbling.  But the set up is there for a bullish turn IMO.

Selling all it’s assets to Endeavour silver for US $10 million. What happens to the shareholders… get the shaft and stock price goes to zero? Is it time to sell this shit when there is still a bid? Help please!

https://goldseek.com/article/gold-seeker-issue-74-week-mining-q2-production-results-gold-cant-decide-which-direction

Endeavour Silver: Following in First Majestic’s footsteps earlier this year, Endeavour silver signed an agreement to acquire a primary gold asset in Nevada. The company entered into a definitive agreement with Canamex Gold to acquire the Bruner Gold project for $10m in cash. In 2017, a PEA was completed, outlining a low cap-ex, open-pit, heap leach operation. This project is unlikely to see much work done until Terronera comes online, at which point Endeavour will be generating significantly more cash flow.

News for Majestic Silver—

https://www.firstmajestic.com/investors/news-releases/first-majestic-produces-55m-silver-eqv-oz-in-q4-2020-35m-silver-oz-and-26k-gold-oz-provides-2021-outlook-and-conference-call-details

Mike Maloney projects a potential gold peak in November 2023.

In my post below, I showed why I think First Majestic (AG) could reach its peak around March 2023 (potentially at a stock price of $200 or more).

(BTW, at a 20:1 gold silver ratio, $11,250 gold would mean $562 silver.)

Here’s Mike’s rationale:

Reminder not to setup live stream on phone… couldn’t get it working.. had to start a fresh one last minute!

Where to expect the dust to settle? (Check description section for fast links)

1- Gold’s analysis: 00:03:15

2- Silver’s analysis: 00:10:56

3- Platinum analysis: 00:16:00

4- More Silver’s analysis: 00:21:10

5- Sugar analysis: 00:30:30

6- Fed Balance Sheet analysis: 00:33:00

7- GDX analysis: 00:35:40

8- Real Yields analysis: 00:41:30

9- VIX/GVZ/GSR analysis: 00:47:30

10- Bollinger Bands XAUUSD, XAUCAD, and BTCUSD analysis: 00:55:10

11- Oroco Resource Crop (copper play) analysis: 01:03:40

12- First Majestic analysis: 01:06:50

13- PAAS analysis: 01:12:00

14- Hecla analysis: 01:16:40