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Reminder not to setup live stream on phone… couldn’t get it working.. had to start a fresh one last minute!
Where to expect the dust to settle? (Check description section for fast links)
1- Gold’s analysis: 00:03:15
2- Silver’s analysis: 00:10:56
3- Platinum analysis: 00:16:00
4- More Silver’s analysis: 00:21:10
5- Sugar analysis: 00:30:30
6- Fed Balance Sheet analysis: 00:33:00
7- GDX analysis: 00:35:40
8- Real Yields analysis: 00:41:30
9- VIX/GVZ/GSR analysis: 00:47:30
10- Bollinger Bands XAUUSD, XAUCAD, and BTCUSD analysis: 00:55:10
11- Oroco Resource Crop (copper play) analysis: 01:03:40
12- First Majestic analysis: 01:06:50
13- PAAS analysis: 01:12:00
14- Hecla analysis: 01:16:40
Fantastic stuff. Thanks Patrick. I’ll listen later, when I get a bit of time. Crazy at work again today, with some fireworks of the meteorological variety – huge thunderstorms in the UK. Atmospheric instability at a time of PM instability lol 🙂
Thanks Northstar! Yes… lots of noise when we get a huge red day. Things don’t look bad when you zoom out… just normal stuff. When we go up a billion days in a row.. we kinda forget the feeling of a regular grind up. Weather A-OK here… for now!
This was super useful Patrick. I really like the 12 month MA analysis. Yes, you might have to buy at a higher price using that indicator, but the peace of mind alone is worth it’s weight. Never mind if you are contemplating using leverage and want to minimize the risk of a margin call.
Keep up the great work. (And I don’t say this lightly).
BTW, intermediate cycles in gold are typically measure in weeks, and they are measured trough to trough. typically, gold cycles can be anywhere from 25-30 weeks. In a bull market, a cyclist expects the ICL to be higher than the previous ICL. The last ICL in gold was the March 16 weekly low. So this cycle is currently 21 weeks old. So a cyclist would expect the ICL (which should be a higher low) in the next 4-9 weeks. That’s not asking much, as the last ICL in gold was at $1450.
There are also daily cycles, which in gold are also about 30 days long, and with daily cycles, a cyclist would expect at least the last daily cycle within the larger ICL to actually make a lower low than the previous daily cycle low–this is normal in bull market. G. Savage actually thinks the current daily cycle in gold is about to find its daily cycle low and a new daily cycle will begin which should bounce for a few days and then roll over quickly in the cycle so that it has plenty of time (maybe 25 or more days) to make a lower low.
I should also point out one fly in the ointment that cyclists will concede is that is possible that an ICL can play out as a pennant consolidation, which means it’s possible the last daily cycle won’t actually make a lower low–the dreaded sideways condolidation, which can make cyclists look like fools. I don’t think they see pennant consolidations as super high probability outcomes but that they are possible.
Wow. I think I understand now cycles. VERY well explained. Fully, consider posting this on right tab. Thanks for watching the podcasts and finding them useful. I covered soo much… could talk for hours on TA..
I should add, a cyclist will look for a daily cycle low on any swing low that is “in the timing band” for a daily cycle low (i.e., around day 25 or 30).
Similarly, a cyclist will typically call an ICL on the first weekly swing low that is in the timing band (i.e., week 25-30).
Cyclists like G. Savage admit cycles are not good for picking tops. Their forte is picking lows. For picking highs, G. Savage looks at momentum indicators like RSI, stochs, distance from 200 day/week MA, and finally sentiment.
Also, those cycle times I mentioned above are just for gold. Miners, other stocks and commodities can have much less predictability. Gold is literally one of the best things to trade using cycle analysis since the cycles are so consistent.
Can you refresh me on what constitutes a swing low?
You have to look at a candle chart for the time frame you are interested (so a daily candle chart for a daily swing low etc.). A swing low candle is established when the high of that candle is surpassed by a SUBSEQUENT candle AND that the low of the swing low candle is NOT taken out by any subsequent candles.
Correction: instead of “any subsequent candle” it should read “the subsequent candle”.
Thanks!
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/swinglow.asp
We have the premiere Cyclist who explains it all on his sidebar Surf City.
Some other cycles especially Savage rank way below Surf city !
There is a LOT more to Bressart Cycles than this one line example.
I like to look at as many types of analysis as possible but don’t really use cycles and don’y know enough to claim any expertise. I found it very interesting that you say gold is probably the single best asset for accurate cycle timing. Do you think that is more a product of gold being perhaps the most universal market or that gold is probably the most manipulated market?
Gold in theory should be the least manipulatable thing on earth due to the concept of “stocks to flow” ratio (i.e., the above-ground “stock” divided by the yearly mine output). In gold’s case, almost every ounce of gold ever mined in history has been horded and could in theory be sold into the market. On the flip side, the yearly mine output is miniscule. This means the supply of gold available for sale at any time is extremely stable. In fact, gold has the highest stocks to flow ratio of any commodity bar none. Silver is a distant, and I mean distant, second.
Because of this, it is essentially impossible to corner the gold market or otherwise jerk price around by reducing or increasing its quantity or available supply. IMO, when gold price trends up, it is the purest representation of loss in purchasing power of the currency in which it is denominated.
beautiful insight.
Thank you for that explanation and from a global macro standpoint makes sense. However, hasn’t the problem all these years been that the prices of gold and silver have been set on the futures exchanges. Yes, if they go crazy in either direction the physical market will adjust eventually. But, the daily spot prices on the exchanges drive the price. (therefore lots of manipulation possible)
I don’t know. In the very short run you can certainly distort things, but I do believe in price and time, and the bear market from 2011 to 2016 absolutely reset sentiment–actually made goldbugs give up–and it has set the stage for what should be an absolutely incredible rise. I just hope that I can get to enjoy the rise and that the world is still in one piece by the end. I also worry about taxation, confiscation and nationalization that will render any paper gains meaningless. I mean who the hell is going to raise a stink if they nationalize gold mines and confiscate bullion to save the “system”?
Should have said question directed to Nautilus