First Majestic Silver is having a Bad Day
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WE ARE
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not good going forward …
Unfortunately I have a rather large stake in AG.
In hindsight, this wasn’t surprising when you look at a silver:commodities ratio chart. I like looking at $silver:GCC. GCC is the unweighted commodity index ETF (meant to track $CCI before that was disbanded). (In contrast, the CRB is a weighted index and overemphasizes oil.)
You can see that since this ratio peaked in 2020, silver has gotten absolutely obliterated by the broader complex. Silver’s value relative to the larger complex went from a high of 2.4 down to a low of 1 last summer! That meant silver miners were going to get the ever loving crap squeezed out of them as input costs skyrocketed while the value of their product was actually down–literally the perfect storm. And this is exactly what was born out with AG’s horrible decline in profit in ’22 that they just reported.
Silver has made some headway vs the complex since then but who knows where the ratio is headed long term. Miners may be the last place to be, even if silver rallies in absolute terms–silver needs to outpace the complex!
I have 80% of my savings in this stock and PAAS and SSRM, so this is unfortunately a tragic development for the rest of my life .
I will be forced to sell my house in order to survive …….I really hate the day I have invested in this sector.
I am right there with you.
What I really miscalculated was how dramatically silver underperformed the rest of the commodity complex. It was the worst possible scenario for silver miners.
The only solace I can give right now is that that relative underperformance is in the rear view. Hopefully the low in $silver:gcc ratio made last summer holds. If we break below that pivot, 2023 could be an absolute horror show for silver miners.
I am holding no matter what. Fuck it at this point. As long as the stock doesn’t go to zero, I am confident that much better days will be arriving later in the year.
Just wait a few days Mamare. Its sitting on pretty good support right now. March will be a reversal back up. Its bad but this is not the time to lose faith and sell at the lows. I would not do that anyway. Markets are notorious for doing this and wiping out traders who lose their composure at the worst possible time.
How’s it go? Eating sardines and trading sardines?