While we wait for The Yellin


What’s Janet Yellen about?

Cycles attempt to find Cycle Lows using “Time” within a timing band (High’s have no real timing band and other TA must be used). That said, Cycle Turns often hinge on some news event (e.g. BREXIT triggered a 5 month low in Stocks and Gold surged out of a Low).

Tomorrow, Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole will likely be such an event (sadly our markets seem so addicted to QE and easy money that every FMOC meeting or FED speech seems to create big turns).


Stocks are in their timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle (TC) low but have been chopping sideways waiting to see what Janet might be Yellen. If the market likes her speech, it may well skip this TC Low and surge higher.


The USD was moving into a TC Low but has paused, waiting for… what else?


Gold and the Miners are in their timing band to find a short term TC Low.


Oil has paused from its recent uptrend out of a 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle (IC) Low..


When Does Her Royal Highness Speak from the Hole ?

any body know the time ?

PMs Extreme Pessimism….

slv optix 8-25

gld optix 8-25

GDX optix 8-25


maybe these violent moves will transition into something of an intraday wave action that can be traded if so inclined

JNUG was up triple that of NUGT today signifying the juniors are out pacing the majors in volatility


GDXJ held support today…


Indicators have reloaded–let’s see what happens…

WTIC Daily…

OBV breaking out on HUGE volume…
Target $52.00
SLOPE 20 is in overbought territory–can see the indicator making a horizontal run allowing the price to reach target before heading back down…


appears the major part of the cycle is behind…maybe a back test of the 13 ema area looks possible but indicators don’t look bullish

the latest bounce looks like a reversion to the mean event

when viewed on the monthly, the cycle has already topped


USD Cycle

I have the USD wedging to a decision point. Which way it breaks will give a clue on the overall direction it will take on its longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.

Screenshot 2016-08-25 16.48.45

WTIC Crude new Intermediate Cycle

Some analysts see a H&S topping pattern forming. While that is possible perhaps, I show Crude backtesting its breakout above my IC Low down trend line. This Bull Flag backtest looks bullish to me.

Screenshot 2016-08-25 16.21.35

Quick update

Been soooooo busy since I got back into the country so have not had time to post.

The GDX clearly broke below the support I wanted to see hold, and we have had to re-assess.  But, the pullback has potentially made this even more bullish.  As long as GDX is over 25.50/25.75, the set up is even stronger for a BIG move higher. We shall soon see.  Yea, I know those that have followed me for years find it unusual for me to be so bullish about this complex, but it is what it is.

Yet, until the bigger set up takes hold, be nimble and hedge your long term positions where appropriate., like when we broke 28.50.

Take care all.


I picked this up a few days ago for $1.659 CAD and then it fell below the 200 yesterday. Great drill results changed that today. We all get lucky now and then. Now we’ll see how it handles any further smash-down in the gold price. I’ve no plans to sell it right now.

Wesdome $WDO +40% #TSX High Grade Gold Discovery at Kiena Complex in Val d’Or Quebec


SPX Trading Cycle

SPX on day 42 and deep into its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low.

Screenshot 2016-08-25 12.45.24

Short Candidate GES

October Puts on GES today heading into shaky September/Shocktober? markets. Thy Omen has made itself known. Gap filled. Lower highs long-term.


ges gapredmoon



trading the red\blue crosses using a smaller time frame to confirm with Elder Impulse buy signals.

so easy a caveman could do it

labdlabd 15

Trader Dan Knows Gas


Some interesting charts


Gold Bull or Bear ?

gold bull

HK and SZ link physical gold trade?

Took two years.

China Moves To Dominate Gold Market With Physical Exchange

XGD weekly Bounced of resistance

Resistance held. and it needs to generate energy to go thru the mighty overhead resistance.

XGD Weekly

Silver: Volume and Money Flows

Hasn’t complete shaking weak longs.

Gold: Volume and Money Flow

This chart tells me it’s just a pull back. In a correction, I expect higher volume and Money Flows out and price retreat lower. However, the herd hasn’t scented this bull yet. It’s still our party. Might be stocks are still good till those yelling falling stocks say I told you so.

NUGT 120

getting a bounce at the 120 triple pivot oversold but need to see some positive divergence via slow stoch

weekly cycle due for a bounce



Can we say if gold pullback 50% then silver follows with 61.8% I don’t think this is de correction. Not yet IMO. However, it might be for Hui, GDX and juniors et al. The fundamentals and composites are different in each of them.

First major correction of the new bull market

It appears we have reached the first major correction in the bull market which started January 19 2016. The slow down we had from late April into June was more of a sideways consolidation. This one is likely to be a more significant shakeout entailing a bit more pain. But, its normal- deal with it.

Personally, I had hopes that we could rally up to the psychologically significant levels of HUI 350-370 where we had PORs in the previous bull and bear markets. But instead I think the market is now succumbing to its own gravitational force.

In fact, this rally petered out right at the limit of other strong rallies. Like many forum members we subscribe to many different news services. One of my favorites is Bob Hoye and his partner Ross Clark. As it turns out his past bull analog comparison turned out pretty accurate and you can see how this rally flamed out in a normal zone.

That’s life, trees don’t grow to the sky.

Bull Rally analogs BGMI


Typically the first major correction in this index lasts from 5-8 weeks and declines 25%. That would put the HUI down at the level of HUI 214 and we are 3 weeks into the decline. So that’s the typical target for price and time. Trade it as you see fit, knowing that you don’t have to trade it at all.

What gold has been doing is very healthy. Recall my well worn Matterhorn chart as it clearly demonstrates that as long as it holds the 1309 level, it is simply a healthy B/T consolidation of the break out move. This process is referred to as “building cause”

I am trading a bit around the edges, I dumped most of my MUX as its liquid and very volatile. I am just improving my cost basis, nothing wrong with these companies. I am mainly sitting tight and remaining cool as Mr. Cucumber.


PS… For those with really shaky knees the genesis of this bull market has not changed. It is driven by negative interest rates and government sanctioned financial fraud. Nothing will change for 5-10 years to reverse this trend

The Legend of Bre X …(a Repost)

This comment from MikeTrike on my Consolidation or Shakeout Post below reminded me .

“Rick Rule has talked about the 1994 bull market in juniors. I don’t think gold or the majors did much, but the gains in the microcaps were spectacular. I believe this bull market ended with the Bre-x scandal in 1997. There is a possibility we are in such a bull market today. If so, exploration stocks will be where the big money will be made! Time will tell but I don’t pay any attention to HUI or GDX/J, I think microcaps are the market to watch. I am not a Spock subscriber, but I think the majority of people will get slaughtered in this sector without some guidance and should probably subscribe to a legitimate service like Spock’s if they are going to take the plunge.”

The Legend of Bre-X


GDX return to base?

GDX has returned to the breakout point of a pitchfork structure (click to enlarge):

GDX pitchfork 20160824

Compare to the gold pitchfork from 15 July:

StockCharts 2 pitchforks bullish action 20160715 goldpitchfork 1310edit

Is this going to be like the May fake shakeout? Gold action is not yet as bad as May but GDX action is a bit worse so far.

Is 38.2% fooling again?


Fellas, if 38.2 supports again for the next leg up, AviGilburt will for the umpteen times tell you so.


intermediate bottom?

Due to LT in 2 hr chart it is a bit difficult to exactly point the 3 fork dots but my best guess is this chart. Intermediate bottom … not only  due too many indicators which need to reset.