Goldtent TA Paradise
In 2001 PM sector turn bullish after 20years of bear market.
How did CDNX behaved then compared to today after 4 years of bear trend???
Answer is in the “corrections”.
Between 2002 and 2007 top CDNX had two major corrections 28% before topping in 2007.
Since Jan 2016 CDNX has not corrected as near as the past correction. This current correction may be the first one and about to end soon????
There were four rises during that time ranging from 45% TO 88%.
DB is in serious trouble based on Forbes and many other sources. Careful for any stock market longs here.
Here are a couple of useful links that I posted on awhile back that discuss Deutsche Bank’s overall systemic risk to the global financial system.
The first shows the banking interconnections (scary) and the second offers the opinion that DB is no Lehman moment. Perhaps but it really depends on how any implosion it handled, IMO.
Will DB be bailed out like Bear Sterns, Fannie, Freddie and AIG… or will it be allowed to fail like Lehman. The counterparty risks to the global financial system could be enormous, especially given their derivative book…
All Market Sectors are Down EXCEPT the Semiconductors
New High for the Move
SOX and HUI are trading generally together
Well, I’ve added another line of potential support for GDXJ because of yesterday’s price reversal.
Some will say yesterday’s reversal was simply a back-test of the breakdown that occurred on Tues, and that’s certainly valid analysis, but then that can also be applied to the $HUI as well…
And inspired by Graddhy’s ABX chart, I went back and took another look at GDXJ and have come to believe that perhaps $38 is not necessarily an inevitability after all, as GDXJ also appears to be consolidating just above it’s own massive (green) neckline…
As you may have noticed, I like ratio charts as one of many very good tools for trying to figuring out relative strength, trend and/or direction, especially at inflection points.
The ratio charts below makes it pretty clear that the majors (HUI) are going to underperform the small caps (GDXJ) and especially the micro caps (CDNX), going forward. And all charts have a thin zone coming up so my guess is that small caps and especially micro caps will fly.
One other possibility with the ratio charts is of course that CDNX and GDXJ could also be falling less than HUI in the near term but that alternative I find highly unlikely at this very point.
I do not think we would have charts that show small and micro caps being strongest if PM was about to take a dive right now. The CDNX is brutally strong at this point looking at its separate chart if one compares it to the majors (not shown here).
The fact that the CDNX is this strong now is just another sign of coming broad commodity inflation as I see it since it contains companies that deals in many different commodities.
So, in sum, I think the place to be right now going forward is the small and micro cap. And most of the majors are not looking as bad as e.g. HUI and GDX can have one believe if one looks at the individual companies as I see it.
Also, I do really believe that GOLD will not go lower for the rest of this bull market than it did on the 16th of Sept at circa 1310. That was the apex hit that I had been looking for and posting about:
After its not that well timed financing announcement I think it is bottoming out here now. At least the r/r is real nice right here.
My last post on uranium miners: