Same Old Same Old

Italy votes No…. PM resigns…Big Gold driving event …Gold Spikes then drops …now negative

a Mini Trump reaction

Lets face it Gold Sucks

If New York got hit by a nuke Gold would Rally for an hour then fade

FGC, here is another take on GDX – a mad fantasy

Granted, chances of the miners breaking out to the baby bull market highs are very low indeed. Still, the probability can never be zero, so there is a chance. If the miners are to bottom here they probably need more work. Its only a bit of speculation mind you, but a 5 point reversal pattern could set up a break above the neck line, and a four point continuation pattern on top of the neck line could set up a rally to GDX 26ish. At that point a reaction should send GDX back down to the neck line forming the right shoulder to an inverse SHS. Well, you know the rest. Yep, its a wild speculative dream, madness to be sure. In the mean time I have my trigger finger on the sell button. It sure isn’t easy, is it?


Weekend Musings

On today’s vote over in Italy. I think this is another important event to watch closely.

Added: The real impact of the no vote is on the Italian Banks which are some of the most under capitalized in Europe. The yes vote was needed to continue the state sponsored bailout efforts of these banks. The no vote puts a halt to the bailouts but the market may need to absorb the systemic risk this has exposed.

Uranium miners – we have BO

Looking at U.TO, this smaller inverse h&s on URA is most probably the reversal pattern for URA for this bear market. And the timing makes sense too I think as uranium usually gets going a while after other commodities in bull markets.


There is a negative divergence on the chart that I do not like, streching the length of the right shoulder.

The Chartology of Gold Stocks

Using the GDX as a Proxy

This is as good a lesson in Chartology as any.

This is the Chart I am using presently to base trading decisions on in this sector .

It really is NOT too complicated if you take the time to study this chart for a few minutes



A…We are below the Head and Shoulders Neckline ( Neckline of Doom) > Mid Term Bearish

B…We are in a well defined Downtrend > Mid Term Bearish

C…The red circles show 4 weeks of consolidation before an unambiguous breakdown , presently we are 2 weeks into the third consolidation and we have broken above the short term ( blue dotted) trendline > Short Term Bullish
Likely we are on our way to X , a simple retest of the neckline of Doom ( 22.50 or so) a 5% move.

D…IF the Downtrend Line and Neckline (X) are exceeded > a quick move to 26 is quite possible !

E …IF price bounces down from X …CAUTION is advised as we may be headed down to the bottom of the channel again , however often the first try is rejected and a move to the middle of the channel may occur BEFORE another attempt at a breakout occurs , which is often successful

F…Look at the TSX momentum indicator on the bottom of the has 2 Short to Mid Term Bullish Aspects
1….Positive divergence ( it is rising with the price falling)
2….Positive crossover ( see thumbnail to the right)

G…The Bottom so far for this move has been close to the 68.2% Fibonacci Support at about 20
IF this gets taken out > Very Bearish > likely target is the Head and Shoulders Price Objective at 12ish
ie…the Incredible PM Stock Rally of 2016 completely retraces !

H…The Black numbers each denote a reversal point within the down trending channel. Point 7 If it is reached has a ? because it will not be a confirmed reversal point until the bottom of the channel is reached.
IF the price exceeds this point , 7 will be erased and we will have a 6 reversal pattern ( Even numbered patterns are ultimately always continuation patterns. So if the pattern breaks out (up) after 6 reversals the price continues in the direction it came from (UP) . If however Point 7 comes to fruition and we go thru the bottom line that would be a Reversal pattern ( odd number of reversal points)

Hopefully for Newbies this little tutorial in how Chartology can help in your trading decisions has been clear and instructive. To learn more about this trading discipline , join us

I found a new reason gold is bottoming

EGLE-Eagle Shipping

Support line holding…
Watching this next week for a break out and up…
MACD needs to breach zero and 13/34 EMA bull cross

$USD YEARLY – channel target

Maybe after the target is hit it will come down and form a right shoulder.

But lets not get ahead of ourselves.


DUST daily

taking a nosedive..



looks like a nice ledge to take a swan dive from..


Long term dollar perspective



“No Brainer”

forks update

…take it to the limit one more time.


SPX vs NDX 100

Interesting price developments this week, IMO.

$XEU and $GOLD – a comparison

Close, but not perfect, correlation. Gold’s potential uptrend line has been noted in a previous post, can’t remember by whom.


Compare $Gold uptrend line from the year early 2000’s at $XEU 5 point reversal to $Gold resting on the uptrend line today and $XEU POTENTIAL 5 point reversal. interesting.

$TNX:$GOLD & $GOLD:$TNX Ratio Charts

10ygr-m1 10ygr-m2 10ygr-q1 10ygr-q2 g10y-m

WTIC Update


One reason I am a cautious bear…
Divergence occurring between SPX and NYSI; also, buy signals per the MACD for the NYSI…


76 analog update

We did get the lower low for the target. Is it done? Just looking for a backtest of the yellow line at this point.



PM-BULL resumes

While GDXJ hit its low on the 14th of November, Gold did that on the 1st of December about 2 weeks later. While GDXJ held ground and set in a higher low on 12/01 compared to 11/14 and has been in a bottoming process, gold went about 4% lower. The fact that gold went much lower while GDXJ held ground is what we have seen as positive divergence passed two weeks for GDXJ. So the juniors or miners in general might be leading again.

Also the bullish miners index ($BPDM) went up from low 7.14 to 10.71 showing potential new momentum for gold miners.

As for GDXJ-daily with a TA approach …

4HM are crossed and UP

TRIX still need to cross

Recovered EMA(13) last Friday and closed above.

All bullish actions … IMO … and yes, of course, many RES-lines need to be broken on the way up again which IMO … it will. There is always a line somewhere to be broken.

The recovery of EMA(13) is a big deal as it is the first step before EMA 13/34 bull cross which by then JNUG will already be up 100% aprox.

When looking at GDXJ (120 + 60) … it has been basing eq. bottoming out during the last 3 weeks. The possible bull flag I potentially was looking for, was too much for going lower and therefore price was in process of bottoming and back-testing. As of 1st December GDXJ made the low while JNUG put in a DB @ 6.20 and resumed up. GDXJ (60+120) even found support at the up sloping line which next to the recovery of EMA(13) on the daily should be seen as first sign of being bullish miners.


Next to GDXJ … I have been following JNUG. The blue fork held remarkably with 2 extra line as for support. I have been buying into JNUG last week with a 6.55 average. First RES I see is around 9.00.


As for the cycle I follow, I expected much more downside but nevertheless … time is up now and from here PM goes UP for another 6-7 months. Such statement does imply we have set a higher low in PM (compared with jan-16 low) and therefore – of course if price indeed goes North as I expect – we are truly in a PM-BULL MARKET which will last until aprox 2020.

EW . . .

Some do EW, and some even live by it … which apparently still is too difficult, even for EW-pro´s which predicted much higher even at last top . . . as IMO they are caught up in mini-counts and only address EW while overlooking cycles missing the big picture. I like to look at EW at a much simplistic way as shown on the chart below. We are now at ´2´ which would predict – having a my cycle in the back of my mind – a much larger wave up which IMO is upon us.


JNUG . . .

I like following the 3xETFs as they usually goes to the extreme and therefore looking for any bottoming process. JNUG dropped from its high @ 33.29 all the way back to 6.20 (DB) for an incredible 81%.

One would have expected more from either JDST or DUST but it has brought the shorters not much, let alone the whipsaw actions. Another lesson learned …  a bull market should not be shortened. At least not shorting miners and therefore if a cycle turn sets in – as nothing goes linear – one will be better off by just shorting the metal and keep it simple if one wants to shorten. Holding onto individual miners for the next few years is best approach IMO.

JNUG according to EW … next target

When such next move UP according to EW while looking at JNUG … it could and should run to aprox 100-140. This would create a 16 – 19 fold increase from last week low @ 6.20. Absurd? Normally I would agree but when JNUG did a move from 2 to 33 equal 16x in the first 7 months of 2016 … it suddenly is not absurd anymore … although the percentages are crazy.


Yet, many great posters stated never to trade a 3xETF due to %-swings and decay (all true), JNUG has been the trade for first half of 2016. When JNUG from last week low will resume UP in earnest, then a same likely outcome should be expected … potential another 16-19x. Anyone missed the first JNUG-run … this is your 2nd opportunity to get same (potential) %.

All-in on solely JNUG is nerve wrecking and is not advised. But a position in JNUG percentage wise small compared to portfolio could do very well while being able to hold longer to JNUG as the %-portfolio is small (10% – 25% max.). If one believe in the resumption of the PM-bull market, then next to holding individual miners, a small % in JNUG should do great cause if the bull market resumes … JNUG will have to follow nevertheless!!!

Gentlemen´s entry

If any have waited for a Gentlemen´s entry … this will be your best 2nd possible entry as we are in a BULL.  No, we will not see sub 1,000 for gold … which even I expected but simply cause TIME ran out for going lower, it simple means the PM-BULL will resume from here which also means that a PM-BULL will be confirmed in the coming months with each tick going higher.

As for the likelihood me being correct that the PM-bear is over now, is that I went bearish July last … which has been correct … does favor me being correct this time. IMO … PM truly is in a BULL market.

IMO … this bullish statement got nothing to do with catching a falling knife as some only follow price and overlook cycles and TIME. Now it is just time to resume UP as we have hit bottom last week due to factor time.

Nevertheless, other bears before becoming bull could wait until more confirmation like the XAU breaking out of its bullish descending wedge.


DYODD. Good luck bulls!

I am long junior miners (individual stocks), JNUG and uranium miners.

3 Dec – Global Positioning

Long: LT treasuries, junior gold and silver stocks, uranium stocks, utilities

Short: Biotech, Financials, Nasdaq 100 and $SPX


Chart: GDXJ:XBI …long GDXJ, short XBI


Washer’s Weeds 3/12/16

A good week for the weed bull.

The sector as a whole resumed it’s upward trajectory and stayed within simple weekly trend lines.

The task force has delivered its report to the judicial ministry. It will be made public at an unknown date in preparation for proposed legislation (possibly this spring). There are rumors and accusations that the report’s contents were leaked last week and very favorable to the industry. That would explain the get in at any price circuit breaking stampede that we witnessed. High times are coming.

My 5 weeds will soon be 4 as there has been a buyout proposal. Another is slated for acquisition which will leave 3 monsters to dominate the space. (Washer’s monsters). This current M&A scramble so early in the game is a good indicator of what can be expected going forward.

Mr. Market is finally speaking to us. Price and volume are stabilizing. M&A pricing tells us what the corporate insiders think this is worth. Things are starting to make more sense.

Here are the weekly’s:

This weeks drama queen is being bought out at around $8.00.


The big dog that is buying MT.


The next buy out target. Rumor mill says ACB is eyeing it.


The only weed down on the week. Just began construction on an 800,000 sq/ft expansion. Could be an epic squeeze ahead.


Has huge amounts of freshly raised cash. Bound to do something wild.


GDX Daily EOD…”Feeling more bullish each passing day”…

Expecting a quick move up to test fib at 22.09…
Momentum increasing as denoted by positive divergences…
XAU continues to hold support…
As FGC mentioned, next level after the fib is 23-24…

SILJ AT THE LINE AGAIN…Expecting a breach and a quick move up…
13/34 ema BULL cross…
SILJ Daily…
Third time a charm?
Compare this to FGCs GDX daily…Since the silver junior miners lead (as noted in this chart), a breach of the upper diagonal trend line would tell us GDX 24 would probably breach giving hope for the bulls…
SILJ Weekly…

Coffee Cycle Update

Time for a Cup of JO? I think so… 😉


-might have a little more upside

-34 ema and upper rail coincide and overbought

-looking for a reversal pattern in one of the reverse etf’s


Housing Market Response to US ELection

Fannie Mae chart:



Using BIS


Very Bullish on NatGas longer term but I think it found a short term Trading Cycle top yesterday on day 15. Took profits on Boil yesterday near the close and picked up an initial position in KOLD this morning at the open at $28.05


YTD ( year to date)

Why are you looking so down in the mouth ?

That’s my Job 🙂




22 at least.
23 – 24 at most