SPX Wedge Back Testing Now…

spx

GDXJ

gdxj-9-30

gdxj-9-30b

The H&S top on the GDXJ starting to look a bit unbalanced.

On the weekly you can see that GDXJ broke down from its uptrend line and is now retesting.

GDXJ at 34-39 looks like a great buy point if we end up there in the next month or two.

$INDU – Daily

PPT working overtime today, but me thinks they will have their work cut out keeping Humpty upright…

humpty-indu

WTF?

Is it me or does $Gold and the $USD appear to be generally moving in tandem since the beginning of the summer?

wtf

FUBAR!

 

SPX on the precipice

spx-9-30

A break below the trendline then below 2119 portends a drop to that thin line (2040-2060)

Bikoo and All

The $CDNX is not the best proxy for what the miners are doing !

Here is a Perf Chart with 8 PM Indices

Have a LOOK !

perf111

GLD Ready to roll over …

If you look at the blue line, we can see that yesterday the curve was starting to roll over… New leg up and buy the dip ?

gld-092916xauusd-093016

Good Am Goldtenters…

fut_chart

some weekend fun

Incrementum ChartBook – 50 Slides For The Gold Bulls

Junior index CDNX History 2002 to 2007 Top

In 2001 PM sector turn bullish after 20years of bear market.
How did CDNX behaved then compared to today after 4 years of bear trend???

Answer is in the “corrections”.
Between 2002 and 2007 top CDNX had two major corrections 28% before topping in 2007.

Since Jan 2016 CDNX has not corrected as near as the past correction. This current correction may be the first one and about to end soon????

There were four rises during that time ranging from 45% TO 88%.

cdnx-daily-2002-to-2007

Deutsche Bank

DB is in serious trouble based on Forbes and many other sources. Careful for any stock market longs here.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2016/09/27/deutsche-bank-a-sinking-ship/#5c5b8503b9bc

Here are a couple of useful links that I posted on awhile back that discuss Deutsche Bank’s overall systemic risk to the global financial system.

The first shows the banking interconnections (scary) and the second offers the opinion that DB is no Lehman moment. Perhaps but it really depends on how any implosion it handled, IMO.

Will DB be bailed out like Bear Sterns, Fannie, Freddie and AIG… or will it be allowed to fail like Lehman. The counterparty risks to the global financial system could be enormous, especially given their derivative book…

screenshot-2016-09-29-23-34-12

http://www.safehaven.com/article/42475/will-deutsche-bank-collapse-the-global-market

GOLD End of Correction ?

xauusd-092916

Gold is probably ending this complex correction with a breakout from this Descending Broadening Wedge … 🙂

SILJ 2 Hour–Neckline is holding :-)

Notice the KST compression–this will break out soon, taking the price with it–up!
KST getting ready to bull cross holding trend line…
ALL EYES on the upper trend line denoted in yellow…
silj

SILVER Also in a Complex Correction ?

xagusd-092916

We definitely in long complex tree correction.

The goal of it is to prolong duration not to correct price, so I think down move is limited and we approaching end of it.

GDX 30

short term possible IHS view

gdx-30

CZ traders…

Broke out of flag…Up on a down day, go CZ…
cz
GDX 15…
The stoch 144 confirmation above 50 did not occur today…
At least we have a support line…
gdx
With the DB news, what are the chances of the miners decoupling from the SM?
Guess if gold went to the moon?

GDX

-short term looks positive

-KST in positive territory

-Tommy indicator constructive

-possible short term IHS within the daily IHS pattern (multiples)

gdxgdx-daily

An interview I did on Financial Sense for anyone interested

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/insider/fsn2016-0929-gilburt-d2f4n8c.mp3

 

VIX Update…

Every time the lower “megaphone” trend line has been hit was a good time to go short…
vix

UVXY double bottom

nice looking W pattern

uvxy-double-bottom

SOX

All Market Sectors are Down EXCEPT the Semiconductors

New High for the Move

SOX and HUI are trading generally together

sox1

Hmmm

http://www.thinfilmproducts.umicore.com/products/technicaldata/show_datenblatt_pm.pdf

GDX 30 Perspective…

Bullish ascending wedge?
gdx

Same for Gold & Silver: Coiled Springs…

gold-daily

silver-daily

 

SPX

spx-9-29a

H&S top playing out on the 30 minute chart. Note the RSI and MACD divergences. If the neckline breaks I suspect we will be down at 2120 rather quickly.

GDXJ & HUI

Well, I’ve added another line of potential support for GDXJ because of yesterday’s price reversal.

gdxj-daily-01

Some will say yesterday’s reversal was simply a back-test of the breakdown that occurred on Tues, and that’s certainly valid analysis, but then that can also be applied to the $HUI as well…

hui-daily

And inspired by Graddhy’s ABX chart, I went back and took another look at GDXJ and have come to believe that perhaps $38 is not necessarily an inevitability after all, as GDXJ also appears to be consolidating just above it’s own massive (green) neckline…

gdxj-daily-02

 

 

 

 

UWTI

uwti
Larger picture is an IHS…
Use UCO if desired since it’s not an ETN…
Tommy, this UVXY 15 min chart might be of interest to you…
Look at the trend line established Sept 13th with SVXY; except for the occassional UVXY “pop”…
SVXY has been “the trend”…
uvxy

Altius Minerals

Not a gold miner but looks like its breaking out above a long term resistance line.

screenshot-2016-09-29-08-57-56

Miners ratio charts

As you may have noticed, I like ratio charts as one of many very good tools for trying to figuring out relative strength, trend and/or direction, especially at inflection points.

The ratio charts below makes it pretty clear that the majors (HUI) are going to underperform the small caps (GDXJ) and especially the micro caps (CDNX), going forward. And all charts have a thin zone coming up so my guess is that small caps and especially micro caps will fly.
One other possibility with the ratio charts is of course that CDNX and GDXJ could also be falling less than HUI in the near term but that alternative I find highly unlikely at this very point.

I do not think we would have charts that show small and micro caps being strongest if PM was about to take a dive right now. The CDNX is brutally strong at this point looking at its separate chart if one compares it to the majors (not shown here).

The fact that the CDNX is this strong now is just another sign of coming broad commodity inflation as I see it since it contains companies that deals in many different commodities.

hui-gdxj-2gdxj-cdnxhui-cdnx

Put this together on the 27th. Spot the yellow cell. Some are of course ETFs.
indexes-drop-diff

We also have a number of majors looking like they are BT and not about to drop to the floor, as I see it, e.g.:
abx-inv-hs-plis-symm-tri

So, in sum, I think the place to be right now going forward is the small and micro cap. And most of the majors are not looking as bad as e.g. HUI and GDX can have one believe if one looks at the individual companies as I see it.

Also, I do really believe that GOLD will not go lower for the rest of this bull market than it did on the 16th of Sept at circa 1310. That was the apex hit that I had been looking for and posting about:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=381959

I think EFR.TO is ripe

After its not that well timed financing announcement I think it is bottoming out here now. At least the r/r is real nice right here.

efr-dagefr-boefr-dbefr-thin-zone2

My last post on uranium miners:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382144

GSS looking good

gss-9-29b

gss-9-29

GSS built out a massive head and shoulders bottom. It broke out then had a hard retest. It is attempting to breakout again. This could nearly double on the next leg higher.