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20 second conclusion for you…
To conclude, the gold stocks have emerged from a historic bottom, have more upside but will eventually correct. How much they correct and when depends on how fast they reach their upside targets and what specific levels they reach. My current guess is anywhere from 25% to 35%.
The chart and comments say it all. Sure looks like the transition to a Bear is underway. Surprises to the downside are now with the USD with surprises to the upside taking place across the PM Complex.
Still takes some getting used to after the long Bear.
Note how after the last IC Low in Feb, the USD came back up and tested the Red IC downtrend line. Normally, I like to see the line broken rather that just tested to confirm that a new IC has started so I think that was the last IC but the Jury is out a bit for now.
If this baby gives way, watch out below.
According to ZH, Carl Icahn has bailed.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-28/no-brainer-carl-icahn-dumps-entire-stake-aapl
Here is a quick a “Health Check” on some of Wall Street’s Darlings. Over on the RC Forum, Plunger posted on the CMG H&S breakdown. That inspired me to do a broader health check.
All charts have the price channels, as I see them, into the June/July timeframe when I expect the next IC Low.
Added: TWTR and IBB to the mix at the end
We have entered the early part of the timing band where Gold and the Miners usually find a TC Low. Since the Jan 2016 Low, these have been brief, mild affairs. Note on my two charts below the small breakdown in price below the previous blue TC Uptrend moves Gold and the Miners into a TC Low.
This usually happens to signal a move into a TC Low. To mark a longer 5-6 month IC Low, the last TC Low is also usually lower than the previous TC Low. Again, this is what usually happens. Not always, but that is the Cycle norm.
IBB Struggling to make it back to my upper resistance line.
Some further evidence that the CRB may be bottoming here.
Not sure if anyone has followed my SGG, SOYB, JJG trades (also have a smaller position in DBA). Here are some charts, SOYB has been the most bullish and is driving JJG as well. Sugar is in a key spot right here.
I have TLT on Day 8 of its current Trading Cycle (18-24 days on average) and it topped on day one and has failed.
TLT has also quickly retraced more than 38.2% of the move thus far so it looks like the failed Trading Cycle is leading us into the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Normally IC Lows breach my longer Intermediate Cycle trend line which would imply a drop into the 62% range.
Seems Bonds are pricing in a potential rate increase here or at least a hawkish FMOC statement.
The first 7 month Daily Chart says it all. The Green and Red Pendant 2.0 lines are key Cycle trendiness on my chart.
I had mentioned previously that Gold could have had a “Consolidation ICL” in late March but these are extremely rare. We should know very soon as the wedge has little room left. A break up would be very bullish and a close below my Green line would likely signal a move into a TC Low sometime in late April to early May.
Second 4 Year Weekly chart provides a longer term view on resistance. Blue vertical lines shows ICL timing band to be 5-6 months.
Not sure if we move higher here or not but the SPX is chopping in one of Oscar’s “F” Flags into overhead resistance (small Green Flag). Not sure where the SPX will top for this IC but I am still expecting the next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low in the June/July timeframe.
Will it be a Higher IC low or a Lower IC Low? Time will Tell 🙂
Nothing has changed. Long term trend is down but if we have started a new Intermediate Cycle, as I suspect, we will likely see the current Bear Flag move up towards resistance that I outlined in my last update. If I am correct, this move will provide some headwind resistance to PM’s and the broader CRB.
These two charts say it all. Bullish Intermediate cycle uptrend meets the 3 year cycle downtrend resistance.
Added: A 27 year view on Crude Oil price channels (stock charts does not have data before 1990).
Here are a couple of Gold Miner Intermediate Cycle (IC) Charts. The first is a Daily of the current 5-6 Month GDX Intermediate Cycle. The lower blue line of the channel is also my IC Uptrend line. Price breaking below that line would likely move GDX into its next IC Low.
The last chart is a longer term picture of the last 4+ years of IC Lows for GDX. Note how once the Blue IC Uptrend line is broken, GDX moves into it’s next IC Low about every 5 months. Also note how GDX is still backtesting the previous IC Uptrend line.
Green Vertical lines show how Keltner Bands, Slow Sto and RSI similarities provide a clue at IC Tops. Lastly, the current IC Uptrend is very steep.
GDX Intermediate Cycle channel update.
http://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-climbing-epic-wall-of-worry/
There is huge disbelief at this rally…which is very bullish.
Near term however, looks like we’ve hit a top and will go lower. My targets are included.
Facing a Test here and turned back at resistance so far.
FWIW, if anyone really cares, Utility Stocks have begun the move into their next IC Low.
The first chart shows the price action over the past 7 months and has a Fib retrace so pick your level. The second is a 2 year showing the price channels with blue arrows showing Intermediate Cycle Lows.
Again, the current move into an IC Low is just starting. Are TLT and the Utes foreshadowing a rate increase or at least the expectations of one? Time will Tell 🙂
If the Fed resumes its Interest Rate increases, then Bond prices should start heading lower as yields move up. Here are my short and long term Bond (TLT) cycle charts.
The first chart is a 9 month Daily and the second is a 3 year Weekly showing my Price Channels and Green Intermediate cycle uptrend line. The two red downtrend Forks are purely speculative at this point, similar to the one I produced on the USD very early on that no one wanted to believe.
Note that Price broke below my Green Intermediate Cycle trend line today signaling a move into what should be the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Seems the market may be smelling out the next rate increase.
While the charts look very similar, they cover different time horizons (9 months vs 3 years).
Here are some trendiness to watch. I show that the current Trading Cycle uptrend line (Green) and the longer Intermediate Cycle uptrend line (Blue) are very near each other.
Note also how the Trading Cycle Lows have been very brief and shallow unlike what we saw during the Bear. If we break my Blue Intermediate Cycle uptrend, will the IC Low also be brief and shallow?
Time will Tell 🙂
Here are a couple of USD charts. Longer term, my first chart shows that the USD’s 3 Year Cycle has topped and perhaps the 15 Year Cycle as well. The lower Blue line of my price channel is also the 3 year uptrend line. Note the breakdown of this line, backtest failure and drop. The 30ema on the weekly also appears to be rolling over.
My second chart shows the near term Daily price action of Bear Flag Trading Cycles moving up to test the top rail of my Red Fork. I have the USD on Day 6 of a new Trading Cycle and what could also be a new Intermediate Cycle as well. Time will tell 🙂
Crude has made a very bullish move here and is at a key inflection point right here.
The 2+ Year Resistance is dead ahead. It either makes a bullish impulse move up here or gets turned back. We should know very soon.
Silver had a hugely bullish day today and I am loaded to the gill with miner positions and lovin it right now.
That said, these end of day charts on Silver and the SIL Miner ETF show that resistance will need to be over come for a continued move up.
Here is the chart on SIL, which I do not own but the daily RSI hit 78 today. (I do own AG, EXK, and GPL which were all over 80 so I took some chips off the table for now).
Added: Bullish looking breakout from what looks like a classic Cup & Handle. If this continues to play out, I will be buying back at higher prices. 🙁
And misc. Cycle trendiness that I am watching for Gold, Silver and the Miners.
Sugar, Soybeans and Corn (Wheat to a lesser extent) are signaling that a bottoming process may be underway. While more work is needed, these bear watching (pun intended).
I have positions in SGG, SOYB and JJG.
Check out the volume on JJG (Soybeans, Wheat and Corn) on Friday.
Post on Sugar (SGG) which appear to be the most bullish as the 50 has crossed back over the 200:
The Battle between Bulls and Bears is on with two trends coming to a head. See my First chart of the near term uptrend from the double bottom in Jan/Feb versus the slightly longer term down trend that started in Aug 2015.
Given where are are on the chart, my expectations are that we should know very soon which way price will break. Either we break through my Red downtrend out of the top and start getting an impulse move higher or the “cookie begins to crumble.”
First my “Battle of 2 Trends” Chart and some recent posts:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366880
https://goldtadise.com/?p=366441
The Northman Trader also came out with a very interesting post this weekend that is well worth the read, IMO.
https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/16/the-big-move/
Lastly, the Bollinger Bands are very tight here on the SPX and other indicies signaling to me that a Big Move is coming. Lets look at my BBand Chart for some clues:
Daddy bought some Sugar (SGG) today 🙂 (Actually yesterday and added today)
I think Sugar (SGG) is starting a new Trading Cycle today (start of TC2 by my count). I believe that Sugar may have found a Bear Market bottom based on my second, longer term chart but needs to break my 4+ year downtrend line to prove it. We now have a higher IC Low and a Higher High in this new IC thus far.
Is just a Monster. Look at the MACD divergence from 2012 to 2014 signaling the coming move.
Crude Oil is getting into an interesting area that bears watching (pun intended).
