Loading ...SPX Bear Calibration
The SPX is now on day 39 and is in the middle of the average timing band to find its next short term Trading Cycle Low, perhaps next week. The larger issue here is where price will bounce from here before the next 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low (IC Low) which I am expecting in the June/July timeframe.
If the Bear in global stocks continues, then I would expect the dome and red channel on my SPX chart to guide price into the next IC Low this summer.
My last Weekly chart shows a Fractal of price action out of the SPX’s last three IC Lows from last weekend. Note that each Fractal had a 10 week bounce before moving into their initial TC Low.
Great as always Surf
If I understand this implies a big drop this week ?
Oh check that…I see..small drop this week then chop and a Big drop in June.
Best to keep the Powder Dry then
Cycles for timing Folks…keep an eye here
Fully, I would still expect a short sharp drop next week (38% retrace of the current move up) followed by a new TC Bounce into May. If the Fractal plays out, then we should then see what would look like a Bull Flag forming but with a small H&S pattern inside the Flag (similar to the Nov-Dec pattern). I would then expect the H&S to break down in the late May to early June timeframe.
Time will Tell 🙂
Great work. Nearly my weekly indicators say this is at or near the top for the markets. Should be some great opportunities the next several weeks to make some money on the short side.
I went Short again on Friday, April 1st with SPXU and TWM. I was early on two other occasions and am still licking my wounds but my Short positions are all green for this latest round. My expectations are for a short quick drop into a TC Low (next week?) and then a bounce to start TC2. TC2 will need to be watched closely to see if my Fractal (2nd Chart) plays out.
One thing about shorting stocks, is that the impulse moves down are sudden and quick often lasting only a few days once they really get going so you need to be nimble and get out quick when they bounce hard.
Uh, I’m just here to express my sincerest gratitude for this set of charts. Spock, here I come.