Loading ...Bond Cycle Update
If the Fed resumes its Interest Rate increases, then Bond prices should start heading lower as yields move up. Here are my short and long term Bond (TLT) cycle charts.
The first chart is a 9 month Daily and the second is a 3 year Weekly showing my Price Channels and Green Intermediate cycle uptrend line. The two red downtrend Forks are purely speculative at this point, similar to the one I produced on the USD very early on that no one wanted to believe.
Note that Price broke below my Green Intermediate Cycle trend line today signaling a move into what should be the next Intermediate Cycle Low. Seems the market may be smelling out the next rate increase.
While the charts look very similar, they cover different time horizons (9 months vs 3 years).
Interesting
Rate Increase would mean Dollar UP
PMs Down
Tangled Web
Normally rate increases means dollar up PM’s down however in this declining earnings environment it also means a stock market fall, thus putting a floor under the fear trade (good for PM’s). BTW, if the Fed doesn’t raise (like they keep saying they need to) while the SM is high, they will not have a chance when the SM tanks (except to make things worse). If there was ANY actual truth in the talk that we have a ‘stable economy’ the Fed could raise and in fact it would drop PM’s and raise the dollar – I think they are out of ammo and the tables are turning on them quickly.