Loading ...Two charts: First shows the SPX slightly breaching it’s yearly cycle uptrend this morning. Second chart shows a close up of the nearer term Intermediate Cycle, whose uptrend has broken down as well.
Will we see a backtest here or will the decline into the next Yearly Cycle Low just pick of steam here? Any backtest needs to remain below my Red IC downtrend line for this setup to remain bearish.
Time will Tell…
With Friday’s move, the USD confirmed for me that May 2015 hosted a YCL for the dollar. The red down trend line is also my 3 Year Cycle downtrend line but I am not willing to concede just yet that the USD’s 3 Year Cycle low is in just yet.
Call me stubborn but on a shorter term basis the USD should be moving into a short term Trading Cycle or Daily Cycle low very soon (I have the USD on day 21 on Friday).
After that TCL/DCL the USD will need to test that line again and that will be the moment of truth on the USD’s 3 Year Cycle, IMO.
My first chart shows that the SPX tested it’s Yearly Cycle uptrend line on Friday and has breached both its Intermediate Cycle and Trading Cycle uptrend lines on Friday.
My second chart shows that the DOW has been breaching and backtesting, its Yearly Cycle uptrend line for over a week now.
On Friday, the DOW closed below its YC Uptrend for the 3rd time…
Will the 3rd time be the charm? Time will tell. 😉
From a Time perspective, I am expecting the SPX YCL in the Mid-Nov to early December timeframe.
On Friday I added to my initial SPXU starter position from earlier this week.
Added: One last chart show the SPX’s last two YCLs after my YCL uptrend was broken.
Yearly Cycle lows (YCL) in any asset can be nasty affairs. Most assets have Intermediate Cycles that last 5-6 months in length as this seems to be the time needed for investor sentiment to swing from bearish, to bullish to bearish again.
A Yearly Cycle is typically two Intermediate Cycles (IC) but can sometimes be three, especially if one or more of the ICs are short. YCLs are also typically more severe than a normal IC Low.
My attached chart shows Gold’s two IC uptrends in Green and the Yearly Cycle uptrend in Blue. The CCI, MACD and Slow Sto all appear to be at or near ICL levels yet from a Time perspective, it is has only been 4+ months from Gold’s last ICL on May 31st. While Cycles are really more about investor sentiment, 4 months is short. That said, Golds ICL’s have been averaging around 5 months in length over the past several years. The first IC out of the Dec 2015 low lasted closer to 6 months and often times long cycles are followed by short ones.
The key here is my Red IC downtrend out of the early July IC High. We are close to a shorter term Trading Cycle Low here (some call them Daily Cycles) but for the IC Low to be confirmed Price must break above my red IC downtrend. Otherwise the IC Low may still be ahead of us in either late Oct or mid November.
Added: There are no hard rules on either time or price but a YCL is always a more severe low than the previous ICL. To illustrate this, I have added a second chart showing Fib level retracements for Gold’s two Intermediate Cycles. Note that the May ICL has a Fib 38% level and the current move into the current IC Low has already exceeded the 62% Fib level thus far.
Added: GDX and Silver Yearly Cycle charts.
In case you missed the significace of my Cycle posts on Monday, Oct 3rd, here they are for reference that a cycle low was very likely upon us. Perhaps I was too subtle for some.
On Gold:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382876
On Dust:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382839
Took some nice Profits on my BOIL trade (Natgas) for now at $16.85
Perhaps early, but I show resistance at $17. Price also hit my middle Fork where we often see some kind of pullback. Not a EW expert but the 5 min chart sure looks like a possible 5 up as well.
I only get USD feeds at EOD for Stock Charts but here is a chart of UUP showing Price is testing and bumping up against my 3 Year Cycle down trend line.
This should be strong resistance and breaking the line and moving up from here would indicate that May 2015 hosted a very early 3 Year Cycle Low which is not my expectation but I may well be wrong.
Time will tell. 😉
Added: EOD chart on the USD. Let us see what tomorrow brings.
Is BOILing today (BOIL up 5% now after starting the day lower by a couple %). 😉
No breakdown yet but the DOW has been backtesting its breakdown for a week now. SPX had a breach of it’s Intermediate Cycle uptrend today before recovering at the close.
Sure looks like it to me. 😉
Finished loading the boat today with my UNG, BOIL and UGAZ positions.
First chart shows my near term price channel for what looks like a new Trading Cycle and my second chart shows my longer term channel out of what looks like a Bear market low.
I have Gold on day 22 and in the early part of its timing band to find a short term Trading Cycle Low. Yesterday I posted that Gold had broken my Trading Cycle uptrend but that I did not think this would be the low… Looks like I was correct on that front (some trend lines, such as Cycle trend lines, are more important than others).
https://goldtadise.com/?p=382876
The larger question is will this TC Low also be the longer Intermediate Cycle Low as well. Here is my chart with a price channel and possible Fib retrace levels into the next TC Low (note the Fork is not “technically” correct, but I consider it a valid price channel).
Some previous PM Complex posts:
While I am showing the USD is barely 1+ months into a new Intermediate Cycle, my expectations are that my Red 3 year cycle downtrend line will hold sometime later in Oct/Nov and guide the USD into its next 3 year cycle low, perhaps sometime in the Spring of 2017. Nearer term, the USD should also be nearing a short term Trading Cycle top as I have it on day 18.
If price proves me wrong and breaks above my Red downtrend line, that would likely indicate that May 2016 hosted a very short 3 Year Cycle Low, which is not my expectation.
Previous posts on the USD:
Just took some very tasty profits on my DUST hedge @ 41.40
Starting to nibble back at some of my Core (I guess it wasn’t core) and my Trading shares.
Perhaps a bit early but…
I have Gold on day 21 and Price broke below my Trading Cycle (TC) uptrend today in the early part of my timing band for a TC Low. Normally, however, a Cycle Low is the lowest price print in a cycle and right now, day 10 had a lower print at 1309.
My colleague, Norvast has identified Oct 10th as a potential important Low for Gold using his Fibonacci & Lucas time series triangulation so perhaps we bounce a bit before finding the next TC Low.
The real question is if the next TC Low will also be the longer Intermediate Cycle Low as well. From a Time perspective, it would be early at 4+ months but possible.
Watch my Red IC downtrend line. If we are still in an IC downtrend, Price may test but should not break this line before moving lower.
For a quick scalp in to the next Trading Cycle Low for Gold, which I expect over the next few days.
My chart shows that the SPX 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle topped (for far) near 2 months and since the TC1 Low, has been wedging to a decision point. Next IC Low for Stocks should be in the Nov/Dec timeframe.
My first chart shows the trend out of the Feb 2016 low and my second chart the action since the last IC Low in late June after the Brexit vote.
Here are a couple of video updates on stocks of interest:
I am more bullish on NatGas here than Oil but I have both relatively early in their Intermediate Cycles.
The Blue lines on both charts are my Intermediate Cycle uptrend (Green are TC uptrends). On Friday morning, I took profits on my KOLD NatGas short from day 11 and started rebuilding my UNG and BOIL longs. I may be early and NatGas may drop to the 62% retrace at my Blue IC uptrend but I will just continue to add positions into the TC Low which I expect soon (next week if not already in).
China’s Yuan gets added to the IMF’s SDR Bond basket this weekend…
http://philosophyofmetrics.com/the-new-sdr-is-here-freepom/
Alasdair Macleod on American Empire:
http://www.financeandeconomics.org/america-is-on-a-slippery-slope/
Daily Bell on global debt levels ~ is it all just part of the grand plan?
http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/the-worlds-economic-system-is-failing/
DB is in serious trouble based on Forbes and many other sources. Careful for any stock market longs here.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2016/09/27/deutsche-bank-a-sinking-ship/#5c5b8503b9bc
Here are a couple of useful links that I posted on awhile back that discuss Deutsche Bank’s overall systemic risk to the global financial system.
The first shows the banking interconnections (scary) and the second offers the opinion that DB is no Lehman moment. Perhaps but it really depends on how any implosion it handled, IMO.
Will DB be bailed out like Bear Sterns, Fannie, Freddie and AIG… or will it be allowed to fail like Lehman. The counterparty risks to the global financial system could be enormous, especially given their derivative book…
http://www.safehaven.com/article/42475/will-deutsche-bank-collapse-the-global-market
Not a gold miner but looks like its breaking out above a long term resistance line.
This chart is for DadDoc and anyone else who followed me in this trade.
I’ve been in this trade for months and took profits at $53.30
A bit early perhaps but you never go broke taking profits.
It was a sweet one for me… 😉
I have Gold on day 17 of it’s current Trading Cycle and Norvast has identified Oct 9-10 as a very likely date for a Low based on his Time base Fib & Lucas Triangulation calculations. Oct 10th would be day 28 and in my timing band for a TC Low. Will the next TC Low also be the longer 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low as well?
That is the key question as early October is only 4 months from the last IC Low on May 31. It may also be possible that we get one more Trading Cycle into November before the final IC Low is in. Watch my Red IC downtrend line for clues. When Price breaks to the upside, that will likely signal a new Intermediate Cycle (bullish).
My first chart shows the close up action. My second chart shows a potential Price Channel out of Dec 2015 Low. While the Fork is not technically correct, I consider it valid as a potential channel where the next IC Low could test or break the lower Fork line.
Adamis Pharma with a potential breakout.
Dow has just broken its Yearly Cycle uptrend line and the SPX is very close.
Added: A second chart showing the last two Yearly Cycle Lows on the Dow after the YC uptrend line was breached. YCLs can be nasty and I would expect this YCL to coincide with the next Intermediate Cycle Low in stocks which should occur in the Nov/Dec timeframe.
Will history repeat? Time will tell. 😉
It is still possible that Gold had a short, three month, Intermediate Cycle (Norvast’s 2009 Fractal ~ see 2nd chart in attached link), but it is still a long shot at this point.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914
While Gold’s correlation to the USD and Yen moves are not 100% (is anything ever?), the USD’s negative correlation, as of late, has been something to note. The Yen has also had a very high positive correlation to Gold for several years and it’s rally in 2016 mirrors Gold’s move thus far.
The Yen, however, is due for its next Yearly Cycle low (see my 2nd chart) and I am shorting it with YCS. I also believe the USD is relatively early in a new Intermediate Cycle. While I believe the USD will be turned back by my 3 Year Cycle downtrend line, it likely has a few more weeks of upside price action left in it. If the Yen does move into its Yearly Cycle low over the next few weeks, the PM Complex should move lower with it if the correlation holds.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=381799
Still mostly in cash on my SPX allocation although I did take an initial short position with SDS at my Red line.
Chart show crude is wedging to a decision point fairly early in a new 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle.
Out of NatGas for now as it looks to me like it wants to head into a Trading Cycle low. Also took profits on both my Sugar SGG and Coffee JO positions yesterday.
Here is my Coffee JO chart. Will post on SGG and NatGas later if I have time.
Added: SGG and Natgas charts.
We are now 3 months into the current 5-6 month SPX Intermediate Cycle and the SPX is wedging to a decision point.
I am still somewhat cautious here but the move in the USD and the PM Complex makes me wonder if the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle Low is not over a bit early here similar to the 2009 Fractal (see 2nd chart in attached link). Seems the USD was rejected at the 200ma when the Fed failed to raise rates as expected. Perhaps we will get Norvast’s shortened Gold ICL after all (similar to his 2009 Echo year)?
https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914
I just don’t see what will turn the USD back up here. More “jawboning” by Fed members? The market fell for that last time but I can’t believe it would continue to work as they have zero credibility as it seems to be that all they can do is talk about raising rates. My Gold chart shows price would need to move above 1350 to confirm a new Intermediate Cycle.
Miners and Silver charts are also bullish with GDX breaking my IC Downtrend line.
