Yearly Cycle lows (YCL) in any asset can be nasty affairs. Most assets have Intermediate Cycles that last 5-6 months in length as this seems to be the time needed for investor sentiment to swing from bearish, to bullish to bearish again.

A Yearly Cycle is typically two Intermediate Cycles (IC) but can sometimes be three, especially if one or more of the ICs are short. YCLs are also typically more severe than a normal IC Low.

My attached chart shows Gold’s two IC uptrends in Green and the Yearly Cycle uptrend in Blue. The CCI, MACD and Slow Sto all appear to be at or near ICL levels yet from a Time perspective, it is has only been 4+ months from Gold’s last ICL on May 31st. While Cycles are really more about investor sentiment, 4 months is short. That said, Golds ICL’s have been averaging around 5 months in length over the past several years. The first IC out of the Dec 2015 low lasted closer to 6 months and often times long cycles are followed by short ones.

The key here is my Red IC downtrend out of the early July IC High. We are close to a shorter term Trading Cycle Low here (some call them Daily Cycles) but for the IC Low to be confirmed Price must break above my red IC downtrend. Otherwise the IC Low may still be ahead of us in either late Oct or mid November.


Added: There are no hard rules on either time or price but a YCL is always a more severe low than the previous ICL. To illustrate this, I have added a second chart showing Fib level retracements for Gold’s two Intermediate Cycles. Note that the May ICL has a Fib 38% level and the current move into the current IC Low has already exceeded the 62% Fib level thus far.

Added: GDX and Silver Yearly Cycle charts.


In case you missed the significace of my Cycle posts on Monday, Oct 3rd, here they are for reference that a cycle low was very likely upon us. Perhaps I was too subtle for some.

On Gold:

On Dust: