Speculative Option Trade – Dedicated to Silverboom
So, everyone has a different trading strategy and goals when making a trade. With a few exceptions, my philosophy with options is to make a very small outlay looking for an outsized gain. Basically a lottery ticket. Of course many do spreads which are an entirely different approach. If I wanted to play it safe and increase my odds of being correct I more often go with the actual stock where I have to invest more capital, accept a smaller ROI, with the knowledge that I don’t have to get the timing exact to be profitable. That being said this trade is predicated on my post yesterday about Silver and my belief it will start to breakout this week and next. I have three different low priced silver stocks that I am considering. I want to buy a small number of calls on one or two of them for one penny. That means each contract will cost $1 plus the usual 65 cents per contract that most brokers charge for options. In order to get them for a penny they will either be expiring this Friday or for a higher strike price, next week. It is going to take a breakout for silver to get these stocks to move the 50 cents to one dollar necessary to make a decent profit. Of course one could go with a lower strike and or further out date of expiration but this trade is meant to capitalize on a short term move. If I am wrong and silver isn’t ready to move immediately I would rather reasses and try again, than layer in additional strikes and later expiration dates which would add additional costs. So here are my candidates. AG, CDE and HL. AG is acting the worst but has the best opportunity profile looking at the chart and likely upside resistance targets. CDE popped yesterday because the company released their production numbers after the close and insiders were front running. That leaves HL which has a better chart than AG but possibly less immediate upside potential. The window to put the trade on is all of today and tomorrow before the FED announcement and Powell’s presser. If silver is going to pop you have late tomorrow and Thurs. and Friday both of which have lots of economic releases. Going with a higher strike and next Friday’s expiration is ideal. If one penny doesn’t get your order filled you may have to go up to two cents. My candidate right now is to try for the HL 4.50 call expiring on Feb. 9th. If I don’t get filled at one cent, seems unlikely, I will try later on for two cents. (This is not investment advice, just my opinion.)
Ha! I knew you wouldn’t be able to resist posting that.
Interesting approach, GL.
It seem gold and silver are doing the slow creep up that you (and I) prefer. No fireworks, please, just move up a little bit at a time.
I’ve played HL often, and more recently HMY. CDE has always been a puzzle to me – their management has a reputation as utter idiots who only worry about lining their pockets. Perhaps time to give it a shot, too.
I think maybe AG has jumped the shark and will be in the doldrums for awhile yet.
Speaking about giving CDE a shot, here is an alternate strategy. CDE doesn’t have weeklies so it expires on the 16th with the regular monthly expiration for Feb. I expected CDE to pullback after yesterday’s pop but wasn’t necessarily looking for as much as it did at it’s low. CDE Feb. 3’s for 10 cents is a good play. Should get to 3.50 with a good chance for 4.