$ bicep


Not up to date but, we get the idea $ can still hang around the neckline

commercial net short stats

going by the averages , we are at 128 today which leads to say the odds are to upside  and to go higher in price still.

GDX

Link in comments

Another bullish gold indicator

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/golden-cross-what-is-it-and-should-investors-watch-it-cm620734

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp

Oil is bleak

To know where prices are heading, just watch rigs count and shorters; both increased.

OPEC cut, Trump pumps. Supply>Demand calculus. Then watch import by India and we get an idea how the US plans to balance their budget, if it can still be done. Earlier I had thought of oil sticking the Far East. My mind is shut off that. At poor prices, refineries would not be able to recover operation cost refinering heavy WTC, and Brent cut isn’t meeting demand so importing WTC reduces bottom line of refineries.

Silver

Here is a 3 year view of silver. Overall silver looks great long term. The green line goes back 14 years and backtested a channel it broke out of but it sits right at resistance:

Close up, it looks like silver is wedging. I think it’s more likely we back off here initially before breaking out.

If silver can break the orange downtrend line I expect to see a huge green candle. Next target would be the neckline of the red line above. Big “if” though.

$GOLD vs $WTIC+$CRB

Both ratio charts below I have posted quite a few times previously.

Now it seems that $GOLD vs $WTIC below to the left is done BT its gigantic inverse h&s by the looks of the indicators, and also, other ratio charts indicate this.

And the same seems to be true for the ratio chart to the right, $GOLD vs $CRB. BT done.

These charts are yet more indicators on that the pm bull has resumed I would say. It shows gold outpacing oil since 2008/09 which sounds very reasonable to me. Also, gold will probably lead the commodity complex up this time around, for many reasons, and that is what the charts show.

Stocks and $ bulls undeterred

XIV = Greed from fear of missing out?
VIX = Fear at low last seen about 2007-8?

Relating to ECM 2016.825 – 2017.9, it seems that dumb monies are greed chasing stocks that money hasn’t flown into gold, not yet. That greed and confidence might argue for $ strength. Currency strength reflected in rising stock market that runs ahead of perceived earnings that if disappointing may suddenly pivots the market down.

Reading into recent link to Spock, we conservative folks may afford to relax with caution by Rambus’s warning of $-gold divergence.

Considering my recent ‘COT interpretation’ post, pre-rally gold is in the money riding up with $ for next few months with an expected pullback till $ confidence erodes and earnings unsupportive of stock prices. Then only can we expect money would enter gold but, meanwhile we should be watchful of smart monies that have made that switch.

Spock Global Matrix

Don’t forget your more conservative portion of your Portfolios . ( You do have a conservative portion don’t you ?)
🙂

https://spockg.com/2017/02/17/17-feb-update/

+30% in 6 months….. Unemotional , Safe trading .

Sure as hell beats CDs and Portfolio “Managers”

Big Move in Gold before 2017 is up?