Loading ...Silver – Just Go Back to Sleep Until End of 2024
I love silver. No idea why. Its the coin of the people where gold is the metal of Kings. So its always had an appeal to me and over the years I managed to collect more kilos of the stuff than I care to recall. Most of its gone now. Lost to divorce or sold off as mercenary trades. I love it alright but just not enough to hold while its on life support. Unless its collectible. But what a racket that game can be.
Anyway, below is my updated chart showing a symmetrical triangle formation with a termination date of November 2024. Silver looks like it will have a long wait before making its move and if my gold chart today offers any confirmation, the metals space will continue to frustrate would-be traders and Hodlers. Its hard to stay excited when looking at such charts and I know the devoted among us want to believe, but the technicals just do not support the notion of any big moves anytime soon. Unless silver can break above the upper channel, just chill and find something else to buy while you wait.
Nice charts Farmer, but let me point out that statistically price breaks either up or down from such triangles on average when it has traveled 68% the distance to the Apex. So odds are it will break well before it reaches the point.
Of course you are right. And we are deep into this triangle already. My concern is market mayhem in 2024 and what that portends for the metals sector and especially mining stocks. And secondly the implications for further rate hikes which are currently depressing metals prices and effectively putting a lid on any potential breakout. My view leans to the breakout being delayed all else being equal. But as you imply, there are probabilities at work and we can all agree nothing is truly written in stone where forecasting is involved.
Sir Farmer,
Your post reminds me of Ron Rosen’s “Running Flat correction” … a TA concept so abstract, that I’ve not heard of an abstract-er TA methodology.
He maintained that the 1008 top in gold was the top, and that 1923 was a running flat correction.
Sadly, his last post on 321gold.com was over 2 and a half years ago. He called for an all-clear signal for the PM bull once DXY closes below 88.15
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen042921.pdf
What can cause such a plunge in DXY? Will it happen before Nov 2024? Where will gold and silver be by then, even if DXY remains strong?
In other words, is the DXY an illusion, as Sir CM and I concurred sometime back? Just like 1923 peak in gold was an illusion (or an anomaly, if you wil)l?
GL