So I looked. I’ve been trying to avoid gold. But I could only keep my eyes averted for so long before the day came and I finally charted the bugger. Bad news. Gold is going to fail. Gold is going to fail for quite some time actually. Let me wake you up in late 2024 and we can start the conversation anew. For now, set your glittery dreams aside and make other plans. Because the metals stink and will get stinkier for awhile longer.

You don’t have to believe me though. But I see an expanding wedge and a target of 1540 that will be seen before 2500 is ever hit. This is the outcome of a rising real rate environment. Treasuries are simply more attractive than non performing metals and the associated storage costs. And outside of the fringes where a lunatic class keeps insisting cash is trash, nobody really believes the dollar is going to die anytime soon. That can only lead us to a single conclusion; there are more productive places to put your money to work.

Below: A monthly chart of gold. Stochastics do not indicate strength from my experience. The right shoulder has weakened and turned down two months in a row. Bollingers on the monthly (not shown) also support the notion gold is going into a trending decline phase. I think this partly explains the lackluster behavior of mining stocks that can’t seem to get out of bed in the morning. For my money, I will stick with traditional investing for now and avoid the insurance trades as its too early for these to perform in the manner many are expecting.