Hi everyone, I’m new/old member. I was posting several years ago. I don’t remember my old handle.

Im (as hobby) following markets for quite a while, but I will not write how long, to not mislead someone, since I’m still noob and wannabe. Charts used to ‘listen to me’ much more often, than now. Now they mostly make liar of me.

I like to focus more on longer term trends. I find it easier. Commodities, so you have cycles. Then I’m trying to buy at lows. Not that easy. I should change my handle to: ‘too early’ since I’m always too early. Often so much early that I get creamed. Which means, I’m still fighting with the markets and I’m not someone to be listened to.

What I know (or what I believe) is coming from others. I’m trying to specialize to find people, worth listening to. (at least, I’m admitting, I’m not as smart as I used to think I was…)

Currently I’m in uranium and oil. I have some PM’s, which I reduced over time and I’m considering get rid of all PM related stuff for 6-12 months or so. Still thinking what to do about oil short term. Uranium is already in uptrend, this one I will not reduce. Uranium may be the only thing I may keep. Will see.

Why I’m thinking to reduce my PF even more? Europe is now technically in recession. Also Germany which was always leading locomotive. Looks like, USA will (could) also be in recession by the end of this year (give or take few months) So there is good chance, general markets will go down, and they can go down quite a bit and they tend to pull the rest down with them.

I have some risky positions, leaps (LT options). But if we get some kind of slow down, I will lose everything or most with those positions. I guess, I bet too aggressively in the past. Or too early 🙂

If we get a global recession, it will show on oil consumption, but shouldn’t so much on electricity usage. That’s why I’m keeping uranium, reducing or selling most of the rest. To buy some 6-12 months later, with great discounts.

About oil, I’m on a fence. I may sell options, but keep stocks. I can add to stocks if they get significantly cheaper. But you know, how it is, when you look at something that is 30-40-50% down and you should be adding. First it is hard, and second, you are thinking, why I had to be so stubborn. Wouldn’t be nice if I could just outright buy here at discount, instead of adding to deeply in red position?

About oil, I agree with those who are staying away from producers (political risk) and rather go after oil services, especially deep ocean drillers, drilling platform renters etc. No political risk there. If say, USA government slap USA producers with huge windfall taxes or with some other restricting laws, you as shareholder will get hurt, even that you were correct on a market call. With these off shore drilling platforms, if one country gets hostile to it’s oil producers, they will be hired by operators in another country, which is at that time more friendly to it’s oil operators. Just look at the charts, this thesis is playing out well, oil services and especially deep ocean drillers are looking much better.

Kuppy (Harris Kupperman) first floated this idea. Hedge fund manager, whose hedge fund is up few 100% in few years. He was buying Tidewater (TDW https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TDW&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p44386042066) when it was still going down. And look it now! Although I don’t like to buy, when something is so high. If we get a recession and TDW drops enough, I will be all over it. But it is question, how much they can drop with their pretty hefty free cash flow. Any good drop, would probably be irrational and great LT buy.

He is now buying Valaris (VAL: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VAL&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p52129741004) Actually he was buying VAL right when it come out of bankruptcy, with clean slate, almost no debt, bellow 20$) And he is adding on this pull back. Kuppy is super bullish on oil and especially these oil services companies. But so he was last year. Another one, that can be too early. 🙂 But I know, if VAL drops here 30-50% he will just keep adding more, not losing any sleep over it. Eventually, few years down the road, he will be selling his shares much much higher. VAL is now his 3rd biggest position and he expects to sell shares in hundreds of dollars in a few years.

I like to try to time a little bit, if I can, but it likes to backfires me. Also, potential incoming recession is giving me pause from buying here.

Anyone here follows this niche? What do you like?

VAL – almost no debt, but they locked in several LT contracts at not high enough prices. But Kuppy likes it!

RIG – is pricing contracts much better, close to 500k/day, but they have lots of debt to pay off.

TDW – ran up too far

NE – also candidate to look into it. Also reduced debt with previous bankruptcy

Anyone follow these? What is your opinion, which ones do you like and why? General opinion on potential incoming recession? It may happen, that there will be too much talk about recession but it will not happen and these will go wild, before any significant correction.