Art or science? That is often the question I am asked about technical analysis. Not everyone is a believer. Some think a bunch of lines and arrows on a chart are just a way to confuse things and muddy the trading waters. Because the dollar of course. Who needs lines to think about silver when the dollar is going in the toilet. Just buy, buy, buy!

Well I beg to differ. But I will agree that technicals mix art with science. As such there is often a little subjectivity that creeps into our work. And so its the case with todays long term silver chart that I have rather arrogantly divided the drawing into two zones marked “Bear Market” and “Bull Market”.

Allow me to explain my reasoning. I have been at this a very long time. Sometimes I wonder if its the only thing I still know how to do with any great care and skill. One thing I have learned with certainty over the years is that there is just no room for presumption with price charts. As such I have been unwilling to declare a bull market in silver has truly begun because we yet remain firmly trapped inside an obvious pennant formation.

Another name for the pattern shown is a symmetrical triangle. Whatever the name, these are one of the most reliable geometric forms we have available to read charts with. But do not presume to know which way they might break whether up or down. Because that event is more probability than certainty. As such I am calling the current period a “Transition Zone” while it lasts and will not issue the all-clear on serious buying until silver actually proves itself.

That is the subjective portion of my call.

We are tantalizingly close as you can see from the current months candle. In the past few days, silver has finally popped its head above the bull/bear division line and there appears to be light shining at the end of the tunnel. Relief may be coming after 12 long years of waiting.

Bear in mind these are monthly candles. So the final candle in the series is not yet complete. It must close the month with a portion of a candle body (not a wick) above the red line before we can crack open the champagne. Otherwise, plan on selling silver down for at least two more months. The terminus of the triangle is December 2024 and that will feel like an eternity if price continues to chop inside the triangle for the duration. Don’t get discouraged though. We are making progress just by reason of the fact we now have a crytal clear guide to follow.

So let me present to you Your Guide to The Coming Bull Market in Silver. You can figure out the rest!