Loading ...When to Sell After a Gold Rally ?
Its easy to say …”This time is different…I will sell Near THE top and NOT go Back ’till the coast is clear”
The last time Gold rallied was 10 YEARS AGO !
Many of us were there
In real time….what did YOU do ?
Personally this was around the time I hooked up with Audept and Rambus and we started the website.
Rambus was initially bullish but very soon turned bearish. He was seeing a potential huge H and S Top in the HUI
Most analysts scoffed as it was too perfect and too big….”Too Big to Fail” is what I therefore titled this Post.
Note this very unpopular post was made 7 years ago today ! Must See !
https://rambus1.com/2013/02/22/precious-metals-stocks-too-big-to-fail/
I wasn’t about to blow my profits AGAIN …as I had in 08 …so I held my nose and sold the 50 micro miners somewhere BEFORE that post….(as you can see by the chart above …on Feb 23 2013… there was no time to act)…and then we went on a wild ride with DUST and JDST…which had me throwing up at the end !
So by all means stick with this incredible group of analysts HERE AT THE TENT and lets ride this budding bull for a while if we don’t get bucked off with every 7% drawdown….but I know from much negative experience getting out and staying out largely with your profits and psyche in tact…you NEED a wizard !
The Wizard of Rambus
In statistics an N of 1 is not so big. A single big correct call is not such a big deal. I presume however that there may have been a number of subsequent correct calls that bolster your repeatedly expressed adulation (and comparatively few incorrect calls).
We are jumping the gun if we think presume things will even get to the last peak. If they do, things may look a lot different. Gold might get confiscated and gold shares punitively taxed If it rises, it could keep rising. There are no rules. We don’t know. Giant Meteor may attack.
As for what I did — you did ask — I did relatively poorly I suppose. I had too many personal crises to attend to a complicated portfolio adequately. I began selling at the peak and kept selling until the end of 2015. Bolstered somewhat by Spock’s cheerleading as he made his superb call around the end of 2015 I bought exceedingly heavily starting the beginning of 2016.
In retrospect, knowing what my portfolio was, I probably would have done just about as well not selling what I held at the peak. I’d be just about even right now compared to back then if I had held on to everything. I had large position in some rather fine stocks as well as some repulsive junk. If I had perfect retrospective vision and sold the worst stocks I’d be much better off now. I think if I had had time to look carefully at charts and fundamentals I might have actually done really well.
My intention — if things get up high again — and in the mean time — is to keep looking at the stocks and the charts — and my own needs. If individual stocks, especially the dicier ones, get overbought or conversely start sagging too much, or if there is too much bad news, I intend to sell. If some of the core stocks, the really solid ones, have problems on the charts and the sector does as well, I may take partial profits but I will still hold some even if I am pretty sure I’m seeing a top. I do not think I much less any fabulous tried and true Expert can be relied on to identify a top with pure certainty. Much also will depend on my own financial needs.
That is my provisional plan. But I may change my thinking in reaction to evolving reality.
Thanks for sharing you experience.
Looking at that chart Patrick and using your present methodology…where do you think you would have sold and not be tempted to get back in until the DUST settled.
Or perhaps you would have tried to trade the aftermath of the parabolic Bust ?
Challenge accepted! https://goldtadise.com/?p=457152