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Looking for reasons silver will NOT reach the famous 20-21$ area… even if we ROCKET monday to 18% above the 30 week ma… price action is still within acceptable parameters.
Now.. if we stretch the ascent a little.. let’s say an avg. of 1% a day… then the MA will slowly have climbed.. and we could more easily eclipse the 21$… and without being above the 30 week MA more than 18% (recent, known resistance).
I’ll take option one
🙂
I usually see the best case scenario when establishing time to reach targets… which probably doenst help my reputation… which reminds me of a story my girlfriend once told me.. when she was working in an IT shop.. her bosses always said.. “promise a result or promise a time… but dont promise both!”
Charts have a tendency to drag things out.. and when you are about to give up.. they surprise you!
So we will see. I gunning for 3 weeks of +5% per week… ahhh here I go again.. promising both!
I can provide reasons why the silver price will not go up. However these were reasons I had a week ago. They proved incorrect, at least temporarily. I was therefore provoked to buy more some silver shares at least for the short term. However these two reasons still make sense to me even though they proved incorrect last week:
1. Silver is partially an industrial metal. With the viral problem causing industrial shut-downs, industrial demand might be expected to go down. This effect should counteract silver’s being partially a potential monetary metal.
2. If the economy gets really bad in a fashion that is not overtly inflationary those who want to invest or hoard and who can buy may go preferentially for gold. There might be little demand for silver even as a precious metal.
The economic and financial effects of the virus infection are highly unpredictable in multiple directions. They may not even prove to be of great magnitude, though I suspect there will be dislocations, very possibly severe. There are many other potential instabilities in the world’s systems which could be discharged or evoked.
One possibility I have considered is that many industrial users — to the extent that they are worried about dislocations coming from the virus problem — are actually doing the opposite of what I had expected. Rather than stopping buying they may in fact be desperately trying to secure whatever supply they can while they can just in case Ag supply chains or mines stop functioning. They may figure that it’s worth stockpiling at a somewhat high price now as insurance … they know they will be using it anyway later. Therefore with Ag (and other materials) it’s possible there is a sudden surge in demand right now from proactive industrial stockpiling that will surprise everyone by abruptly dropping off after any industrial crisis-driven or (or potential-crisis-driven) hoarding stops.
In other words, I am wondering whether even industrial Ag users who expect a probable decline demand for their own products as well as demand for Ag in a contracting worldwide economy nevertheless are worried about having basic adequate supply of Ag for minimal operations if things get out of hand. Therefore even though they may have very much in mind the possibility of an economy where overall demand is going down, they still may be — **temporarily** — wanting to make sure they have enough Ag on hand just in case. Thus there might be a tendency towards a spike in demand that is not necessarily enduring.