The ULTIMATE framework in a Bull Era (+including current)
This is how a Stan Weinstein play of the gold bull run would of played out. 5 occasions to add… 1 to exit.
You will NEVER sell at the top, and NEVER enter at the bottom.
So you make up the fact you never sell at the top.. by a rather large position size accumulated along the way.
Now… how can we make this better and try to sell some positions along the way? Here comes the moving average analysis.
The 2 sell points are based on previous resistance areas.. where rarely gold has stretch far above. This serves 2 purposes. Saves you time… the consolidation after a mean reversion could be a while. And secondly.. the pretty cool purpose.. this is the only way I see to have “timed” and exited at the 1900$ mark!
Okay… now if we have super duper confidence because of our weight of evidence approach… and that we have full confidence in Northstar 😉 .. I’ll add another tweek to maximize returns.
Add position when you are most fearful. (edit: added chart with 5th “fear” entry point)
Of coarse… you need to be in a multi year stable, sustained bull era to get all those opportunies… and you never know when the music stops! So… one step at a time. Gonna be an entertaining ride!
This post what brought to you with the gift of hindsight and an emotionless analysis! Thanks Fully!
Edit: Adding where we are today… already on the way… as wall of worries are still present.. the bull era has been solidfying it’s presence… better pay attention.. it might be over before you ever notice!
Actually a 5th “fear” entry point after the 1900$ peak…
Nice work, thank you.
Patrick, The ‘play-out’ of Stan’s Stage Analysis is easier said than done.
Weinstein’s Stage Analysis didn’t work for himself in 1999!
In the fall of 1999 at the height of the Gold spike, Stan was “more bullish in Gold than EVER”. This was Just before the 1+ Year 70% plunge in Gold Miners.
I was there, but as one not to listen to hyperbole, I waited to load up. Best decision EVER.
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Hi Alfa? What chart are you refering to that Stan Weinstein’s framework didn’t work? The HUI you put a link to? It’s on the daily chart. If you are refering to Stan himself calling the bullish call… I dont’ know if Stan kept following his own framework later in his career (or for that particular call you mention)… but the simple premise of not shorting when above 30 week sma .. and not going long when below it.. is pretty clear cut.