Loading ...A member sent this Analysis from Caldaro
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/07/31/gold-bull-market-or-just-a-bear-market-rally/
Interesting Take…and it has to be considered
Could be right…its well presented and on the surface has merit
BUT I see too many differences in this bull wrt the 1970 o 1980 Bull
I marked the differences on this chart
1….1970 to 80 was 2 parabolic moves separated by a 42% Drop…The 2000 to 2011 Bull was more gradual
and had no 2 year.. 40% Plus drop in the middle of the move ( 2008 was very brief and only 30%)…
This argues for the 2011 Top being the same as the 1974 Top. The Bull of 70 to 80 was 10 years with a cyclical 2 year bear in the middle
Many have postulated this Bull will be 20 years with a 4 year Cyclical Bear in the middle….(just passed)
2 …Look at how over sold the MACD became this time wrt the MACD after 1980. The MACD this time has barely recovered to where it Bottomed in the 80s….so we have longer to run IMO
There will always be comparative analysis like this and one can never dismiss it out of hand but I am much more inclined to believe we are in 1974 not 1984.
What do YOU think ?
I have 1588 as max B. If that pivots, the possible new low could be 711 as A=C
The 80s saw high interest rates so gold price stalled. Since last year, NIRP make the reverse more astute than ZIRP, both are QE to move money to stocks. Wait till the US do QE4 with NIRP.
I think…based on dow/gold as competing asset classes it’s early 1977.