Loading ...This Guru Rhetoric is Becoming Laughable
Last time I wrote, I pointed to May 19th as being a likely, important bottom in the precious metals complex. It is May 16th in the evening as I write this. If I’m correct, the next three days should prove to be huge down, especially for the miners. Most analysts admit that we are overdue for a correction, but they have no idea how fast and furious it may turn out (to) be.
William P. Hamilton, the greatest market commentator of all time had a thing to say about this:
“It is my observation that the majority of professional opinion is wrong”
—–W.P.H.
I subscribe to him and am now using his analysis as a contrary indicator. Sad, he has moments of amazing trading but tries to hit home runs on every trade.
Wonder what Edelson will say tomorrow. On the 4th his beloved neural net was looking for a smash down: “Moreover, it appears that gold and other precious metals are still poised to turn violently down. Here is my latest neural net chart of gold. As you can clearly see, the called-for April 29 high, which came exactly on cue, is indicating the model is still calling the shots”.
Had the nerve to pat himself/ system on the back in his latest May 4th article for ‘calling the shots’ even though gold went on to make new highs after his previous article posted below. He likes to play the Bo Polny card of “cycle inversion” if he’s wrong. He’ll use that one fast.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/whats-gold-mining-shares-77676
I keep tabs on these guys. You can learn a lot from the gurus.
Ah yes, every bad call can be explained away by cycle inversion with these timing guys. MA spews the same stuff…..
WD Gann coined the term “Cycle Inversion” so that is a common approach for Gann Cycle guys.
In Bressert Cycles, there is no such thing as an inversion. It ‘s just bad Cycle analysis but I have seen some play the “manipulation” card repeatedly. 😉
Edelson’s Ego is bigger than an elephant. In the markets your Ego must be small. You must admit when you are wrong and take small losses.
All these guys on the wrong side of the boat!!
May be he is looking for FOMC minutes tomorrow for free fall, other than that I don’t see any catalyst in next 2 days for any huge down 🙂
Cycles analysis is subjective not objective and the practitioners of it are convinced that their cycles are what matter- not the actual market. Therefore when a forecast is completely wrong they somehow justify it by saying cycle inversion or something else or they maintain that the cycle will be right in the end. That is not real analysis. Its trying to predict an unknowable future. This is why the cycles guys have the biggest egos. Its about their cycles and not the market itself. And BTW, the cycles guys who are good, are good because they incorporate real analysis with their cycles.
and that’s what I like about your analysis Jordan….you reflect on what IS happening in the markets and not what is supposed to happen.
I use both TA and Cycles and what I find most useful is that when you get the “longer” cycle correct it is huge as the Primary or Longer Cycle is dominant over shorter ones and dictates their eventual cycle outcome (e.g. 4 Years for Gold or 7 Years for Stocks). The problem I see, is too many forget this “first rule” or seem to want to make a call like “I guarantee the 7 Year Cycle Low is in on Stocks.” Unless you really have confirmed where the longer cycle is, your trading will be suspect on shorter ones.
The trend is your friend and you only really get that in Cycles if you nail the longer cycle, IMO. Focusing on shorter ones without the bigger picture is a waste of time.
One of the reasons I started becoming bullish on Gold last Fall was that I became convinced by my Cycle work that the longer USD cycle had topped ( I was labeled a USD Bear).
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369184
https://goldtadise.com/?p=367650
Getting the USD long cycle right, is huge for Gold trend over the next 4 year cycle.
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369543
Speaking of Cycles guys, do you know what good ‘ol Gary Savage is advocating these days? Back on 4/17 I saw that he posted not buying at HUI 198, stating it was too late and the correct thing to do was be patient and wait for a retrace to the 175 consolidation zone. Is he still out? According to my monthly charts, it’s unlikely that we will get another bite at the 198 HUI apple for years to come possibly. HUI closed at 230 today. http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2016/04/wait-gold-move-correction.html
Mark, Yes I am aware. He actually called the bottom for Gold in January but did not seem to have the conviction that his call was right. He also has the wrong strategy for the wrong Market, IMO. You Trade a Bear, but you should Ride a Bull.
Instead of Gold and Miners, he now has his Subs massively long on the 3x BioTech LABU because he has guaranteed that the 7 Year Bottom for Stocks happened in Jan/Feb. I am confounded how he can make this call as there is little to no evidence, from a Cycle perspective, that the low is in.
Again, understand were your are in the Longer or Primary Cycle as it will dictate the outcome of shorter ones. If the SPX Bear is not over, then we should continue to see lower lows every 5-6 months followed by lower highs. Once you make both a higher low and a higher high on the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle basis (as Gold has done), you have solid evidence that the Bear Market has ended.
I never look at the biotech charts so I just pulled up the IBB. Looks miserable and teed up for the next hard leg down. He’s clearly a gambler at heart.
http://schrts.co/5MDDx5
Mark, Check out this post and look at the channel I have for IBB. Price is also very close to the 240ish level where there is a very long term support line that may come into play very soon.
LABU has the very same down trend channel but at 3x the pain. YowZa…
https://goldtadise.com/?p=369783
I don’t like the looks of IBB on the weekly. It would have been a great short at 280+ with a target of 206-ish perhaps as soon as July. I wouldn’t consider being long until it hits my green box.
http://schrts.co/9BB2ee
Well put Jordan
Like Surf City here
He incorporates TA into his cycles which is good.
Also notice how the cycles guys have the biggest egos?
Fed minutes out seem to imply June hike, gold down $17.90 at 1260.90 at 19:35 hours British Summer Time.
This will be a good test for the gold sector.