21st of June 2015

Update

As expected Gold posted a rally towards US$1,205.70. While many market participants became extremely bearish two weeks ago I clearly pointed towards the important contrarian buy signals in CoT and sentiment. As well it looks like the Euro could continue to recover towards US$1.17 which should support the precious metal sector.
I still think that the bear market is not yet over but I am bullish for the next 1-3 months….
CoT Gold 190615
During the last five weeks the professionals (=commercial hedgers) have cut down their short positions to a relatively low level. They did the same in the silver market. Therefore I think the coast is clear for the immediate future.
The Midas Touch Gold Model - 21st of June 2015

Midas Touch Gold Model Summary

Last Monday my model switched to a Buy/Bull Mode for the first time since mid of march!
There are new buy signals for Gold in USD-Daily Chart, Seasonality, Gold in Indian Rupee-Daily Chart, Gold in Chinese Yuan-Daily Chart and GDX Goldmines-Daily Chart. But the real kicker is the dramatic change in US Real Interest Rates which have fallen from 0.71% down to 0.25%. This is an extremely bullish development for Gold. There are no new sell signals.
Overall the model is in Buy/Bull Mode and Gold CoT-Report as well as Gold Sentiment are supporting a summer-rally.
Gold Daily 06/21/2015

Gold Daily Chart

Short-term Gold is meeting strong resistance around US$1,205-US$1,210. The falling 200-MA (US$1,207.58) as well as the upper Bollinger Band (US$1,203.63) will certainly force some consolidation/minor setback. Especially as the Slow Stochastic is getting slightly overbought.
But due to the strong seasonality, the very pessimistic sentiment and a friendly CoT-report I see very good chances for a summer-rally in the coming weeks that could take Gold towards the next strong zone of resistance around US$1,240. Of course, as the overall bear market is still in place I would not expect too much of Gold and this summer-rally will surely not be an easy ride. As I have already explained the bears need a “fully staffed pain-train” again to push Gold sustainably below $1,170. Unlike last expected at US$1,205 this train is not yet ready.
If you don’t need to be active in this market I continue to suggest that you´d be better staying at the sidelines and avoid any short-term trading. A new low-risk/high-reward trading opportunity could present itself later this summer if Gold indeed can post a rally in the coming weeks towards $1,240.
As an investor I suggest you to wait for another chance to accumulate physical Gold below $1,150 until you hold 10-20% of your net-worth in physical Gold and Silver as an insurance.