Goldtent TA Paradise

Looking Bullish to me. I’m not an EW guy but looks like it may be wanting to start a Wave 5 up here?

Looks bullish here to me along with Sugar (SGG).

Gotta like the move in SGG today. 😉

Covers stocks, commodities (approx 21 min mark) and the Fed (approx 27 min mark).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UdUUpky8Ys

The USD’s move today sure looks like it made an Intermediate Cycle Low (ICL) in mid-August on week 15 (see 1st chart). If correct, this would now be week 4 of a new Intermediate Cycle with the next real resistance at the 3 Year Cycle down trend line. My second chart shows the ICL patterns over the past 2+ years.

Normal timing band for ICLs is 18-23 weeks so the second chart shows they have been running shorter. Note that the longest ICL on the chart at 24 weeks also had a TC Low on week 15 so a 12-15 week cycle low pattern is emerging.

That I am watching. Some patterns from 1+ years as well as close up.

SPX looks somewhat similar.

It seems that interest rates are on the rise, with or without the Fed. Just take a look at TLT or any Bond chart and prices have been selling off hard over the past 7 days. So is the Bond market sniffing out a rate hike or are traders simply repricing risk?

Nothing much has changed with the USD. I show it on day 19 of its current Trading Cycle and still wedging to a decision. Based on Time it should be moving into its TC Low but it sure is not acting like it. Any micro move up in the USD as it chops around and the PM Complex seems to tank and “wet the bed” so to speak.

Gold and the Miners are on day 9-10 of their Trading Cycle. They both formed an initial top early on day 2-3 and have established a higher low (so far) but the small lower trend line needs to hold and bounce rather than being tested daily.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but the the pattern on the longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle shows a top (so far) in just over one month followed by a double top near the two month timeframe. Since then, lower lows followed by lower highs. If the normal timing band holds, the next IC low should be in the Oct/Nov timeframe.

Many will expect Gold to surge after the next FMOC meeting on Sept 21st but that is 4 days away and Gold and the Miners need to hold the support line they are on and even start moving up before then as a move below 1306 in Gold would be bearish.

Here is my post from Sept 6th showing two possible scenarios (see the first chart in the link):

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914

CLVLY up 14% today on strong earnings. Did anyone follow?

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380987

To a decision point. SPX has a similar pattern.

Since the May IC low in the USD, its shorter term Trading Cycles have been longer than normal (over 36+ days low to low). Normally the TC Lows are 18-23 days on average.

For my preferred count, I have the USD on day 15 finding Resistance where I would expect it to move into a Trading Cycle Low between days 18-23. With the last two Trading Cycles have been quite long and often times long cycles are followed by short ones so caution is advised near term.

For the USD’s longer Intermediate Cycle, I show it topped near 3 months and should be moving into its next IC Low. Nothing on the charts looks like an IC Low to me but the USD is clearly wedging to a decision point. If price breaks above my Red downtrend line this will likely signal the USD had a very mild IC Low.

Longer term, my second chart shows the the current Price Channel downtrend that I have for the USD over the past 1+ years. Note that each uptrend during this period has been a series of Bear Flag rallies capped at either the 150ema or my the top Red line of my Price Channel.

My Gold and Miner charts show that the Price action is also wedging but the Flags are Bullish in nature (so far).

Previous post with 2 possible scenarios on the Gold Cycle:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914

The chart says it all.

I keep a Financial Calendar on Gmail with all kinds of dates (e.g. FMOC, NFP, G20 stuff, Norvast Gann dates, My potential Cycle turn dates, Bradley Astro, etc.).

So on Sunday, the anniversary of 9/11, I have and entry: :Monetary Crisis Event: David Nichols.” I have looked back and have found two similar entries with the same notation that I find VERY Interesting. They are Nov 24, 2015 and June 21, 2016. I don’t recall from what source I made these entries.

Recall that Brexit occurred on Friday, June 24 so I find this very interesting that this was just 3 days off from the Brexit vote….

The first entry I can find on this was on Nov 24, 2015 and it had the notation:

Monetary Crisis Event: David Nichols ~ Monetary Crisis every 36 years (1907, 1944, 1980, 2016)

Note that this November date was within a week of Gold’s cyclical Bear low on Dec 3, 2015.

I have Googled “David Nichols Monetary Crisis” but all that comes up are some old articles from 2014 and before. Anyone have any clues?

Added: Here are a couple of interesting articles from this week (2nd link is a MUST read).

http://www.safehaven.com/article/42475/will-deutsche-bank-collapse-the-global-market

https://northmantrader.com/2016/09/10/time-to-get-real-part-ii/

Cycles are essentially about both Price and Time but I would argue that none of Gold’s Cycles are exact in Time. Timing bands for cycle lows of all assets vary in length otherwise it would be far too easy. That is why I don’t use the Stockcharts cycle tools as they are too rigid.

Cycle lengths on all timescales, vary in length with investor sentiment. The 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low that we see in most assets seems to be the time needed for the market to go from Bearish to Bullish to Bearish again. In Bull Markets, I often see Intermediate Cycles become longer (e.g. 6-8 months). In Bear Markets, I have also noticed that IC Lengths get shorter (e.g. 4+ to 5 Months). Thus the need for an average Timing Band where other TA tools/techniques are needed to confirm Highs and Lows.

My chart shows Gold’s 4 Year Cycle pattern out of the late 1999 Bear Low (note that the low was in 1999 not 2001 which was a retest).

Also note that the period of Time from 1999 to late 2008 was closer to 9 years while the period from late 2008 to Jan 2016 was closer to 7 years. Another thing I have noticed about cycles of all lengths is that short cycles often follow long ones and vice versa.

Added: 2nd chart showing a close up of Gold’s third 4 year cycle into its 2011 top.

Gold’s two longer Cycles are it’s 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and its Four Year Cycle. It also has a Yearly Cycle (2 Intermediate Cycles) and an Eight Year Cycle (2 Four Year Cycles).

The Yearly Cycle and the Eight Year Cycle normally have the more severe Lows.

FWIW, the first 6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low for Gold was in late May and was quite mild with about a Fib 38% retrace. Therefore, we should expect the next IC Low to be more severe as it will be the first YCL since the Bear Market Low.

SPX still boxed in but at an interesting spot and holding support at my middle Fork line. Lots of white space below.

Added: Price has lost support at the middle fork. Watch out if the Box breaks down.

The Charts tell the tale that we are still in limbo…

One or the other has found it’s Intermediate Cycle Top and will be moving into an Intermediate Cycle Low. Which one is the is the $64K question?

Previous updates for reference:

On the USD (see the comments section where I mention two possible counts)

https://goldtadise.com/?p=381059

On Gold Cycle (2 possible scenarios ~ see 1st chart)

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380914

Based on Time and recent Price action, it looks like NattyGas is starting a new Trading Cycle after finding a TC Low on day 18. Added to my UNG positions yesterday and again today.

Here is my previous post:

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380558

Looks to me like the USD wants to resume its decline into its next Intermediate Cycle Low.

I have the SPX on day 50 and past its normal timing band to find a Trading Cycle low. Based on Time and the subtle Price action on my chart, it looks like we may be ready to break out of my Green Box and make new highs here.

Note that Price has moved above my small red down trend line but the real challenge is breaking out of the box…

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380555

Here is a small Pharma I have been in for awhile. CLVLY is the symbol and they have some interesting products in the pipeline.

Looks like a Stage 2 Bull Market chart to me. 😉

All is good on my charts (so far).

In the Soft Commodity arena, I bailed on everything else awhile back when they broke down out of my cycle lines (SOYB, CORN and WEAT).

Still riding Coffee (JO) and Sugar (SGG) although I took some profits on JO today.

But will it hold after the Inventory report tomorrow morning?

Either Gold has delivered a very short Intermediate Cycle Low at 3 months or this rally will top out near my top Red downtrend line and move into a lower IC Low in the mid-to-late October timeframe. Normally Gold Intermediate Cycles last 5-6 months low to low and I show the last one in late May.

My colleague, Norvast of Gann, however, considers 2009 his primary “Echo Year” for this current move out of the Dec 2015 Bear low. In 2009, Gold also had a very short 3 month IC Low during its second Intermediate Cycle out of the 2008 bottom (see my 2nd chart). We are also in the 2nd Intermediate Cycle so watch my upper Red line and Blue fork for Clues on how this rally will play out.

The USD’s shorter Trading Cycle counts are a bit clouded here but we have entered the early part of my timing band for the Dollar to start seeking out its IC Low here (if it is not already in…). My first chart shows the close up action over the past 4 months and my second chart is a weekly showing the pattern of IC Lows over the past several years.

Not sure why more of us did not see this as a logical top for the initial run up.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but this one was right there in front of us.

I have NattyGas on day 15 of Trading Cycle (TC) #1 of a new 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle. NatGas has relatively short TCs and my timing band is approx 18-25 days on average for a TC Low.

I show price backtesting its breakout above my Red Intermediate Cycle downtrend line and also testing support at my lower Fork. If support holds here, this could be a half cycle low.

Previous Update: https://goldtadise.com/?p=379394

After breaking out the new ATHs the SPX has been “Boxed In” chopping sideways. The Bollinger Bands are as narrow as I have ever seen them which usually signals a big move is very likely coming.

Based on Time, the SPX is over due for a shot term TC Low so maybe we will see a rare sideways time base “consolidation” low but I am going to wait to see first which way she breaks before I jump in. And then, will the initial move just be a “head fake?” Gotta love these markets.

I have “Swing Lows” on both the Gold and Miner charts which is the first signal I look for when trying to spot a cycle low. Both are deep in their timing band to find a TC Low (I also have a “Swing High” in the USD).

https://goldtadise.com/?p=380140

I have GDX on day 26 and deep in its timing band to find a Trading Cycle Low here. I can’t say how bullish the bounce will be but we are due for one. My first chart shows we are at the 62% Fib retrace out of the move up from the Late May IC Low and also testing my green line. My second, Weekly chart shows two long term down trend resistance lines. Will these now provide support?

Time and Price have arrived at a very interesting spot near the 30ema on the weekly where support should start to firm up if we are still in a Bull Market here.

Weekly update that includes some Dow Theory

Adamis Pharma ADMP is up 12+% today on Big Volume. Their Epipen alternative is rumored to have been fast tracked by the FDA (Take that Mylan…).

Not sure if I posted on this here earlier this week. Did anyone follow?

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/1c136579-24f0-3bf5-b30b-ffdccfb5b90a/ss_here%26%2339%3Bs-a-reason-why.html

Added: Now up over 14% on 15x normal volume. Biggest volume day I can find on the charts I can find ever…

Added: Closing chart and volume at 35x the norm. Up to $3.72 in the aftermarket