USD Gold and Miner Cycles
It seems that interest rates are on the rise, with or without the Fed. Just take a look at TLT or any Bond chart and prices have been selling off hard over the past 7 days. So is the Bond market sniffing out a rate hike or are traders simply repricing risk?
Nothing much has changed with the USD. I show it on day 19 of its current Trading Cycle and still wedging to a decision. Based on Time it should be moving into its TC Low but it sure is not acting like it. Any micro move up in the USD as it chops around and the PM Complex seems to tank and “wet the bed” so to speak.
Gold and the Miners are on day 9-10 of their Trading Cycle. They both formed an initial top early on day 2-3 and have established a higher low (so far) but the small lower trend line needs to hold and bounce rather than being tested daily.
Hindsight is always 20/20 but the the pattern on the longer 5-6 Month Intermediate Cycle shows a top (so far) in just over one month followed by a double top near the two month timeframe. Since then, lower lows followed by lower highs. If the normal timing band holds, the next IC low should be in the Oct/Nov timeframe.
Many will expect Gold to surge after the next FMOC meeting on Sept 21st but that is 4 days away and Gold and the Miners need to hold the support line they are on and even start moving up before then as a move below 1306 in Gold would be bearish.
Here is my post from Sept 6th showing two possible scenarios (see the first chart in the link):