Cycles are essentially about both Price and Time but I would argue that none of Gold’s Cycles are exact in Time. Timing bands for cycle lows of all assets vary in length otherwise it would be far too easy. That is why I don’t use the Stockcharts cycle tools as they are too rigid.

Cycle lengths on all timescales, vary in length with investor sentiment. The 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle low that we see in most assets seems to be the time needed for the market to go from Bearish to Bullish to Bearish again. In Bull Markets, I often see Intermediate Cycles become longer (e.g. 6-8 months). In Bear Markets, I have also noticed that IC Lengths get shorter (e.g. 4+ to 5 Months). Thus the need for an average Timing Band where other TA tools/techniques are needed to confirm Highs and Lows.

My chart shows Gold’s 4 Year Cycle pattern out of the late 1999 Bear Low (note that the low was in 1999 not 2001 which was a retest).

Also note that the period of Time from 1999 to late 2008 was closer to 9 years while the period from late 2008 to Jan 2016 was closer to 7 years. Another thing I have noticed about cycles of all lengths is that short cycles often follow long ones and vice versa.

Added: 2nd chart showing a close up of Gold’s third 4 year cycle into its 2011 top.

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Gold’s two longer Cycles are it’s 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle and its Four Year Cycle. It also has a Yearly Cycle (2 Intermediate Cycles) and an Eight Year Cycle (2 Four Year Cycles).

The Yearly Cycle and the Eight Year Cycle normally have the more severe Lows.

FWIW, the first 6 Month Intermediate Cycle Low for Gold was in late May and was quite mild with about a Fib 38% retrace. Therefore, we should expect the next IC Low to be more severe as it will be the first YCL since the Bear Market Low.