Goldtent TA Paradise

Ta da…the updated ‘Is The Us Dollar Do(o)med ?’ chart

I’ve stuck with this chart for so long now. If it plays out, I’ll be looking for a knighthood at the very least, lol 🙂

Wrong, wrong and wrong again

Anti Fiat is flourishing. Bitcoin bull run continues. Now above $11,000

Trying to figure out what happens next. The GDX chart is one that I really like – beautiful bullish pennant and cup, each with their own targets. When the cup target was breached it reacted by gapping up. I think it would be healthy to fill that gap, and, in fact a move below that would be good. $38 looks a likely target to me. Having done that, a blast up to $54 would take us to the pennant target. Job done. After that ? Probably a multi-month consolidation/pullback process, setting us up for the next big move which will take us to the peak ahead of the major drop into the 8 year cycle low.

Will just have to wait and see what these patterns morph into…

Golds advance on the front page of the Financial Times

My bullish forecast from 3 weeks ago – updated

Up 25% since I posted. Should be further gains ahead.

Share price has retreated in recent days, but the gaps are now filled, and the chart looks to be telling us that prices will rise.

Burst through resistance. Approaching $11,000.

Bull flag hitting the edge of a bullish arc, with supporting indicators after the halving event – The odds of a breakdown were very small, compared to the odds of a breakout upwards.

A common tool in weather forecasting is the ‘conceptual model’. It visualises a series of process in a way that is simple to understand and easy to remember.

Here’s my conceptual model for gold…

One – The 8 year gold cycle, with low points in (approx) 2000, 2008, 2016. 2024, 2032.

Two – The red zones (time periods) when you might reasonably expect the 8 year low to occur.

Three – The arc which I identified in 2018 for the first time. It had led us to this point beautifully.

Four – Breakout, through previous all-time high resistance (now support). The red elipse is a zone where a pullback was/is a risk (handle?)

Five – The next 8 year cycle low may be supported by this line

Unknown – How high we go between now and the drop into the 8 year low

Unknown – Will the cycle post 2024 be right, or left translated ? In other words, how much time do we have before dropping into the 2032 low ?

Additional Comments – All the evidence points to a bull market in PMs (and commodities more generally) lasting for many years. Breakouts above multi decade downtrend patterns are occurring as we speak in the silver miners and uranium miners. This model has remained constant throughout my work over the last several years, but I’m ready to adjust/amend it give enough supporting evidence.

Just take a look at some of the mining stocks (especially silver) and you’ll see that the bull market has barely even started. Buy something like this and forget about it for a few years (do your own due diligence of course). Big corrections will happen along the way, but in the grand scheme of things, they will pale into insignificance.

I’ve been posting this chart here for years. I hope many of you took action and benefited from what it told us. It’s currently telling us that this PM bull has only just been born, and has many years to run.

Here’s the chart I’ve been posting for months now. Updated with the latest move and comments…

Incredible moves in PM’s. I’m taken aback, even though it’s what I’ve been forecasting for years lol. Anyway, now that we’re here, I can see an area of clear air turbulence, and a short, stomach-churning drop ahead. Riding the thermals for now though 🙂

Gold, Silver, miners and BTC updates…

Ethereum is making bigger gains and moving pretty fast now.

When gold was $1400 there were many who believed the COT situation would spell disaster for gold. I argued that this was complete nonsense…

Here’s another ‘big picture’ overview of the gold market.

Every now and again, I like to look back at my forecasts and see how they panned out. Learning from past errors is essential to adjusting your methods and minimising the risk of future ones. These charts go back to early last year…

And to bring us bang up to date…

We broke out this week, as I was expecting. Next hurdle is $10,000 which I think is likely to be taken out in the next 10 days.

On the face of it, the chart looks bullish to me

Or is it just one enormous trap ?

The gold/silver ratio gave us the confidence that this rally was going to happen. It may be giving us clues again. Remember – a falling ratio means silver will ou-perform gold. In a bull market, that means gold is rising, but silver is rising faster (relative to gold in percentage terms).

A symmetrical, expanding wedge. Increasing volatility. I suspect a break (up or down) will lead to a sizeable rally or pullback. I’m mindful of GDX’s ‘reverse symmetry’ target of $54, but also the relatively high likelihood of gold backing off from the region around the all-time highs. Big decision right here, and everyone knows it. This is a real bull/bear battle. The bulls will win the war, but this battle is yet to be decided.

That was when I posted this chart. I guess we have our answer…

I posted the bullish charts a few minutes ago. Now we’ve broken out, but will it hold ?

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3594703-northern-dynasty-wins-final-eis-for-pebble-project?mail_subject=nak-northern-dynasty-wins-final-eis-for-pebble-project&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

There are no guarantees – we could breakdown, BUT, these patterns usually resolve upwards…