A common tool in weather forecasting is the ‘conceptual model’. It visualises a series of process in a way that is simple to understand and easy to remember.

Here’s my conceptual model for gold…

One – The 8 year gold cycle, with low points in (approx) 2000, 2008, 2016. 2024, 2032.

Two – The red zones (time periods) when you might reasonably expect the 8 year low to occur.

Three – The arc which I identified in 2018 for the first time. It had led us to this point beautifully.

Four – Breakout, through previous all-time high resistance (now support). The red elipse is a zone where a pullback was/is a risk (handle?)

Five – The next 8 year cycle low may be supported by this line

Unknown – How high we go between now and the drop into the 8 year low

Unknown – Will the cycle post 2024 be right, or left translated ? In other words, how much time do we have before dropping into the 2032 low ?

Additional Comments – All the evidence points to a bull market in PMs (and commodities more generally) lasting for many years. Breakouts above multi decade downtrend patterns are occurring as we speak in the silver miners and uranium miners. This model has remained constant throughout my work over the last several years, but I’m ready to adjust/amend it give enough supporting evidence.