Goldtent TA Paradise

Really ? What do YOU think ?

Edit: Both patterns could fail. I have less confidence in the Dollar pattern, and can envisage a rising Dollar/rising gold scenario. Overall though, I still think both will play out.

Closing the week above $1400 (and even better $1450) would put us in what I see as a new phase (or zone on my chart below).

Zone 6 will bring another phase of anticipation. A break above that would give us a clear run to the old highs and beyond.

Still a possibility this could play out…

and gold has had a nice move to the upside today…

The move up in gold here in the UK is very impressive (or should I say, devaluation of the £)…

Regardless of short term fluctuations, this is most definitely a bull market…

Silver…

Gold…

Gold/Silver Ratio Bouncing As A Result…

Zooming in  we can actually see that we’re in a rising channel, and just bounced off support…

In conclusion, we could be looking at a significant consolidation/correction in the long term PM bull. A downside breach of the channel above will indicated the next big PM leg up.

Well, the recent move has burst through the ‘domed top’ on my Dollar Chart. Someone on Twitter asked why don’t I draw it to take the spike highs into account, so I’ve done that here…

I left the original arc on so that you can compare the two. If valid, the new arc needs 99.3 to be breached. Before everyone starts crying foul and accusing me of constantly moving the goalposts, I agree. However the previous Dollar ‘domed top’ did accommodate the spike highs on the monthly chart…

Having said all of that, I’m open to the idea of a right translated Dollar cycle, and if this goes up much further, we need to start thinking in those terms. It would surprise me, but gold seems to have been doing ok with a rising Dollar so far. Some initial thoughts…

Once the FOMC decision is fully digested by the markets, I’d expect the next PM upleg to get underway.

Up 65% today

Two gold charts, one silver chart and my ‘domed top’ DXY chart (untouched from the first time I posted it – just watching it develop in real-time)…

Maybe, maybe not – just a possibility. Dollar has surpassed my 98 ‘limit’ now, but I’m waiting to see what happens on Wednesday before drawing any conclusions.

…here in the uk. All currencies (measured against gold) are moving in the same direction.

Despite a strong Dollar. It’ll be interesting to watch what happens after FOMC and to see where we close the month.

Closed at 97.99 – who would’ve guessed. Place your bets Goldtent friends.

This has a feeling of something significant about to happen. Gold, silver, GSR and the Dollar have all reached very important support/resistance on their charts at EXACTLY the same time. The next move will surely be decisive…

I’m feeling just a little bit nervous.

What if this whole thing is just one giant bowl – all the way to the old high ? How high might this enormous basing pattern project us ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-07-23/jpmorgan-we-believe-dollar-could-lose-its-status-worlds-reserve-currency

If the chart above continues to drop off, the Dollars significance, globally, will be much reduced.

It’s natural that some sort of pattern builds out at cyclical lows and cyclical highs. Here are a handful of numerous examples in a number of markets, but once you start looking they’re everywhere…

The reason I’m focussing on this right now is that it can help to give us a very high confidence level that we’re on the right side of the trade (either long or short in a particular market). If you can confirm that a base or domed top is looking valid by demonstrating multiple touches and successful tests, you can identify the rising or falling support level (as I’ve done for DXY and Gold/Silver in recent posts). A breach of those levels would provide me with my first ‘warning flag’ that something is wrong. Additional confidence comes from the fact that an apparent base lines up with a cyclical high, or domed top lines up with a cyclical top. This is indeed the case for PM’s and the US Dollar. For those reasons, my confidence in PM’s up/Dollar down is pretty high. However – nothing is set in stone, and something that is very, very unlikely, can still occur. Just because the evidence stacks up to favour one particular outcome, an entirely different outcome may occur. That’s why I’m so focussed on reactions of DXY and Gold/Silver within the bowl I’ve identified. The remainder of 2019 is likely to provide all the answers I need.

Sometimes, a simple line chart can make things clearer…

Meanwhile, gold is poised, waiting for the outcome of this (very) important test. Perhaps it makes very little difference – DXY rising towards point 3 on my chart above has made no difference to golds bullish move this year…

I know a correction is coming at some point, and the cycle experts will have their views on this. Smaller cycles frustrate the heck out of me, so I’m just focussing on the chartology, and this still looks bullish to me. Could we surge to somewhere in the $1500-$1600 region before seeing a meaningful pullback ? Quite possibly, especially if the GSR falls through the lower support line in the 80 region.

Silver is on a tear, so the GSR continues to fall…

I posted this last month…

I can’t take the credit for the use of ‘around the apex’ moves. Graddhy (formerly a member here, and now to be found on Twitter), has been right, time after time with these. I’ve been studying them carefully and come to some clear, and probably quite obvious conclusions.

• An apex forms at the culmination of a pattern with decreasing price movement
• The resulting triangle or wedge can be level, or tilted up or down (you can read about them on stockcharts etc)
• The key point for me – If they form at a historic market high and break upwards, you can pretty much guarantee a violent ‘around the apex’ move down. The opposite is of course true at historic market lows.
• The GSR is at a historic high, so it was always 95% likely to reverse down to pass through the apex and provide very, very strong evidence that we have a developing PM bull market on our hands

So, finally, here’s the chart updated with todays data…

I’m going to refrain from declaring this a done deal until GSR passes through the lower black line (somewhere near 80). A lifetime of experience teaches you that very unlikely things do sometimes happen for unforeseen reasons. However, the odds are very strongly in favour of a crashing GSR and energised PM market, with silver and silver miners surging.

Been looking at Silver priced in Pounds here in the UK. The big picture chartology is simply stunning. Straight out of a textbook. This is clearly, without doubt a bull market for PMs in my view.

The last 7 years looks more and more like nothing more than a ‘halfway pause’. A realistic target, when £16 is broken to the upside is £40-£50.

You might remember I posted this chart back in May https://goldtadise.com/?p=444548

Here’s the same chart, brought up to date…

Since then, I’ve adjusted the ‘golden bowl’ in my conceptual model (the top of the bowl is now at $1600), but the base/support of the bowl is in a very similar position, currently providing support in the $1300 region. Any large correction should be supported there, and unless it’s breached, I have no concerns at all.

Here’s another blast from the past, this time last August https://goldtadise.com/?p=433668

Here’s the update…

Everything seems to be progressing well, and I have no reason to reconsider the bullish outlook unless $1300 is breached to the downside. It’ll be interesting to revisit this post in another 6 months or so – looking back at the end of the last accumulation phase, we may spend quite long periods of time oscillating around in ‘add’ zones. Also noticed I put the start of the 16 year cycle in a somewhat debatable position – but I do find the exact cycle lows can be a little out of sync with the actual price bottoming, so I try to only use it as a rough guide anyway.

After 32 years of weather forecasting, I’ve come to the conclusion that it’s about 75% Science and 25% Art. Once you have your forecast, it’s then completely useless unless you can communicate it effectively, so that people understand it in the way you intend, and take the actions that you would like. I’ve worked in the field of civilian and military forecasting, and knowing your audience is key. In this example, one understands technical jargon and the other doesn’t. Even so, a fast jet pilot, actually isn’t interested in the weather forecast per se, all he or she wants to know is whether or not they can safely complete their mission, given the prevailing weather. Go or no-go, effectively.

Back in the day, our computer would churn out a crude forecast, which the human forecaster would consider, adjust and issue. Today, things are vastly different, we use some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world to model the global atmospheric interactions in three-dimensions, at ever increasing levels of detail. The computer then produces dozens of forecasts. Dozens of possible future weather patterns. We do this in the UK, and they do it in the US, Japan, Germany, France, etc etc. Every 6 hours, (Every hour in the near future), forecasts are produced for the entire planet going many days into the future. Where does that leave us ? Well, this is where you need to consider predictability. Chaos if you like. Sometimes the atmosphere across the Atlantic Ocean  and the UK is in a ‘calm’ balanced state, where we have a good level of predictability. All of our predictions, and those which are done by computer models in other countries are saying the same thing. For example, at the moment, they are all saying that much of the country will be hotter than normal next week, with temperatures in the range 28-35 Celsius (UK Summer average is 20-23 for most areas). On other occasions, there are a range of predictions, all different. That’s where we have to examine what it is that’s causing the differences, and make a judgement call, based on evidence to suggest which is the MOST LIKELY outcome. It’s important to bear in mind that just because Outcome A has a 90% probability and outcome B has a 10% probability, it doesn’t mean outcome A will happen. The favourite in a horse race doesn’t always win…

All of this guides my approach to PM market analysis. I gather ‘evidence’ and weigh the odds. At periodic intervals I’ll remind the reader where the support level for my ‘forecast’ is. At the moment it’s in the region of $1300, because my conceptual model is based around the ‘golden bowl’ formation guiding us towards $1600, before we consolidate and make a break for possible new highs (the timing of which will help me get some sort of idea what kind of bull market targets might be possible).

Here are some pieces of evidence…

#1 – Gold breaking to new all time highs globally

#2 – CHF/USD looking bullish

#3 – JPY/USD looking long-term bullish

#4 – GSR coming off all time highs

#5 – DXY hasn’t broken my ‘domed’ resistance area

#7 – ‘Golden Bowl’ basing formation is doing its job like last time

#8 – Silver is just starting to outperform

#9 – Miners are starting to move

#10 – Donald Trump is actively seeking to suppress the Dollar

#11 – Interest rates are not going higher – as I’ve been saying for years, they are unable to ‘normalise’ EVER due to the incredible debt burdon. Lord only knows what form of monetary saucery will     be invented this time around, but none of it will be good for the long term health of economy. This is the case on a global scale – that’s why country after country is breaking to new all time highs.

This is the financial equivalent of a perfect storm. When it hits though, things will become a whole lot less predictable, and I hope at least some folks will have been paying attention to the forecasts and warnings (I don’t necessarily mean from me, I just mean that I hope some are able to protect themselves from the worst of the effects by taking effective action).

This is quite likely to happen slowly at first, then very quickly. In the meantime, expect plenty of pullbacks and consolidations as Gold and Silver begin to wake from their long slumber.

Gold/Silver ratio is falling fast from VERY high levels. This tends to supercharge PM markets. The 85 level is very significant because it will confirm the completion of an ‘around the apex’ move which has been building for nearly 20 years…

The rest of the world is already entering a new era, where gold is at its highest EVER level when measured in the local currency, in countries as far apart, and contrasting as Japan and Canada…

Gold is rising at a logarithmic rate (tens of dollars in the 70’s, hundreds of Dollars in the 80’s and 90’s, thousands of Dollars in the current decade, tens of thousands in the…). That’s represented on the following chart. The key for me, when it comes to trying to gauge just how high we go in the next 10 years, will be how long it takes to break above the old highs. Remember, much of the rest of the world is already achieving this…

I’m not too familiar with this particular indicator, but using HUI (as it goes back further on goldcharts), I don’t see anything to worry about when you zoom out and look back at how it behaved in the early 2000’s…