Loading ...$100-$200 Gold Rally ?
During the entire basing process over the last 6 years or so, the Stoch indicator regularly hits a very low reading and turns up. EVERY time this results in a good rally. $100-$200 is normal.The bullish wedge has been broken to the upside. Even a historically small $100 rally would take us through upside resistance. Norvast has made me question myself – and for very good reasons. I’m going to be intrigued to see where we go from here.
The charts show us where we’ve been, sentiment shows us where we’re going.
The stock market, world debt, tariffs,etc. all point to higher sentiment in PM’s
Indeed, the chart does show us where we’ve been, but it also tells us where we are most likely to be heading. 12 out of 12 times the low stocharstic was followed by a gold rally. 11 out of 12 times it was $100 or more. 7 out of the 12 it rallied $150 or more. This gives us a high level of confidence when we come to predicting the future move now that the low stocharstic reading has turned up and gold has broken out of the bullish descending wedge, with a monthly close above $1300.
Yes, thanks NS, the charts give us probabilities. It’s just the PM’s also give us more head fakes than a 12 headed snake! LOL!
Can’t argue with that Steins. I think we (I) sometimes identify a chart pattern, like the ‘bowl base’or bullish descending wedge and just expect them to break out too soon. They often just take a few more weeks or even months to play out. That’s why I’m very clear that nothing is really changed until we fall below $1220 or break above the $1350 to $1400 zone.
Great Chart….I like the odds 12 for 12
🙂
So do I Fully. If that was indeed the Stoch low for this cycle we can have high confidence of a $100+ move.
So, if nothing has changed, it seems wise to sell after $100/$150 rally and to re consider when next buying opportunity comes along and stochastics will be on oversold again.
Lets see the $100 plus rally ….show me the money 🙂
I agree with NorthStar. $100 would finally be THE breakout of his Bowl….so this could be a bigger deal than any other $100 move
The Stochastic could turn back down, with gold dropping further, but if that was the Stoch low, a good rally is almost certain.
Northstar,
Do you mind making a projection on your chart should the pog reach 1220-1240. Do u still consider that possibility? Trekker
Hi Trekker. If we reach $1220 (and I don’t think we will), I’d expect a rapid reversal and breakout. Any move below that would be very bearish in my view.