The following chart clearly demonstrates the fact that the move in 2016 was a ‘false start’ a bit like the one we had in 1999. This fits in with the ’rounded bottom’ chart I posted previously. At the major 15 year cycle lows there is an extended ‘accumulation’ period. If you’re smart, that’s the time to buy. Once the breakout occurs the new bull market is on. There are then numerous further pullbacks and opportunities to add, until finally, at the cycle peak, we reach the ‘exit’ period. You’re probably thinking that’s great in hindsight, but how do you know in real time when the bull starts and ends ? The stocharstic is very useful here. It bottoms in the 5-10 range at major lows, but what’s more important is the break back above 30. If you’d bought at that point in the last major bull, you would’ve got in at around $260. If you’d bought the initial surge in 1999, all the gains were given back, but it wouldn’t have mattered – It was a major 15 year cycle low (like now), so the bull was on its way. The ‘exit’ comes when the stocharstic falls from above 90 to below 30 . If you’d done that during the last bull cycle, you would’ve got out at about $1600. I realise that’s not perfect, but you would’ve banked a 600% profit on gold and much more on the miners. This is going to form a major part of my strategy going forwards into golds next bull market (assuming we’re going to see a significant price appreciation during this cycle). If we break down below $1050, the gold cycle would appear broken, and I really don’t rate that as very likely.

We’re currently range-bound in the current 15 year cycle low accumulation zone. $1050-$1400 is the range, so we need to look for the stocharstic to hit the 5-10 range (currently 18), then rebound and break above 30. Final confirmation comes when gold breaks above $1400. Until then, it’s all noise.