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Silver can be manipulated more than Gold but one can make a better return when it is allowed to run.
Can the paper Silver mkts go lower? Sure. At some point Silver will be priced below profitability. At that time the smart money comes in and starts buying the physical as low prices are the cure for low prices.
Yes and meanwhile Silverbugs get crushed in Silver Stocks and ETFs and sell the bottom because they cannot witdstand the pain and get eaten by the “pros”
“At some point Silver will be priced below profitability. At that time the smart money comes in”
NO. Silver doesn’t work that way. Profitability is a non factor, since its produced almost entirely as a byproduct of industrial metals mining. (New supply of silver is determined by current demand for copper.) There is also a huge store of above ground silver supply that gets sold into rallies.
If and when the Everything Bubble bursts (not quite yet but soon), then ALL bets are off. Bankrupt losers are LIQUIDATED, and their productive assets are acquired at rock bottom prices by the Vultures, resetting it all (cost structures). Just like after the tech crash with overbuilt fiber.
Very good point plus we are at the mercy of the Comex and selling positions that don’t exist.
Correct about the byproduct source and this is the majority of supply, however not that much comes into market when price rallies, that’s because on 1,000 Oz bars are traded on the exchange. One doesn’t see grandma cleaning out her silverware when the price runs over $50.
Also in regards to primary silver producers, most have costs around $25 now and a sustained price of a few years over $50 will be required to finance new primary silver mines. This is relevant b/c industry is running a deficit now.