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For quite a while, the Liberals have been looking for something to shake up the political scene.
A big event.
A new line of attack.
A moment for Justin Trudeau to be ‘Prime Ministerial’ on the world stage.
An event that reshapes how Canadians think about politics.
And there may have been moments when the Liberals – if only briefly – thought this was their week.
The NATO summit focused significant attention on Canada, allowing Justin Trudeau to cast himself as a serious leader focused on Canada’s national defence – something that would have reassured not only Canadians but also our increasingly restive allies.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s debate performance last week raised the odds of former President Donald Trump getting back in the White House, something Liberal strategists are surely hoping will coalesce the ‘progressive’ vote in Canada around the Liberals given enough fearmongering and their past attempts to like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre to Trump.
And it appears the Liberals are in the early stages of an effort to throw Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland under the bus and pin Canada’s economic decline on her, rather than Trudeau.
So, the Liberals likely started the week thinking this could be – if not the beginning of a mild turnaround, the beginning of the end of their interminable decline in the polls.
Nope.
Instead, they’re now facing down what may be their worst poll in over a decade.
According to the most recent Mainstreet Research survey – conducted at the beginning of the week (July 8-9) – the Liberals are set for a truly horrific defeat.
Nationally, the Conservatives are at 45%. That’s a bit above most recent polls, but still in a reasonable range.
Meanwhile, the Liberals have fallen to just 23%.
The NDP has just 15%.
So, even combined, the Liberals & NDP are a full 7 points behind the Conservatives.
To get a sense of how horrendous these numbers are for the Liberals, consider that the PC sweep of 1984 featured a 23-point gap between the Mulroney-led PCs and the Turner-led Liberals. The Conservatives won 50% of the national popular vote, while the Liberals won 28%.
If the Mainstream Research poll was replicated on election day, the Liberals could be looking at a near-total wipeout, being reduced to the most hardcore Liberal areas of the country.
It would look very similar to 1984, with Polling Canada noting on Twitter that this would result in 232 seats for the Conservatives, 52 for the Liberals, 35 for the Bloc, just 21 for the NDP, and 2 for the Greens.
These are terrible numbers for the Liberals.
And the deeper numbers aren’t any better for them.
When asked to describe their opinion of Justin Trudeau, just 9% said they had a very favourable opinion of him, while 21% said they had a somewhat favourable opinion.
Meanwhile, nearly half the nation (48%) has a very unfavourable opinion of Trudeau, while another 18% have an unfavourable view.
Overall, that’s 30% approval vs 66% disapproval.
There’s also a huge 39-point intensity gap between very favourable and unfavourable, which explains why so few people defend Trudeau and so many want hi out of office.
Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s numbers are much better.
26% have a very favourable view of him, while 20% have a somewhat favourable view. 34% have a very unfavourable view, while 10% have an unfavourable view.
So, compared to the 39-point intensity gap for Trudeau between very unfavourable and very favourable, there’s just an 8-point gap for Poilievre.
And overall, Poilievre has a 46% favourable rating, compared to a 44% unfavourable rating.
60% want Trudeau to resign, compared to 40% who think he should stay as Leader of the Liberal Party.
Keep in mind, some of the 40% who want Trudeau to stay on likely want that so they can see him lose in the next election, rather than handing the disaster to some Liberal patsy on his way out.
A new low, but it can get even worse for the Liberals
This poll appears to be a new low for the Liberals – at least in terms of the gap between them and the Conservatives.
While the overall national polling picture remains unchanged (a massive Conservative lead), it is still important to look at ‘outlier’ polls as they may indicate upcoming trends.
The Liberals are trying everything they can – including what appear to be desperate attempts to recruit Mark Carney to try and burnish their economic credentials and throwing Chrystia Freeland under the bus – but none of it is resonating.
Nothing is changing the overall polling picture for the Liberals.
At this point, I think it is more likely that things get worse for the Liberals, rather than better. While some sort of unexpected event – though it would have to be pretty extreme at this point – could shake things up, the Liberals are struggling because the fundamentals of the country are so poor.
Canada is a country with rising crime and rising drug addiction.
Canada is a country with a declining standard of living.
Canada is a country with social programs that are getting worse even as we pay more for them.
Canada is a country with crumbling social cohesion.
Canada is a country where an entire generation is giving up on owning a home.
Canada is a country with a once highly praised immigration system that has been wrecked.
Canada is a country where many of the best and brightest are seeking to leave ASAP.
Canada is a country seen – rightfully – as an unserious nation and as a free-rider on national defence, and we are now being called out publicly for it.
Canada is a country squandering an immense amount of potential wealth by embracing radical climate policies instead of fully developing our resources.
None of these things are improving.
All are getting worse.
And all are getting worse while the Liberals are in power.
And so, everything else is just noise.
Canadians are tuning out the Liberals and Trudeau and are waiting for the first chance to vote the Liberals out of office.
So, with all indications being that Liberal political fortunes are now directly tied to the state of the country, things could get even worse for the Liberals as things become worse for the country.
This leaves open the possibility of a larger breakdown in Liberal support, especially if a significant economic crisis hits our already battered nation.
Something we’ll have to keep an eye on is whether the Liberals fall to a point when they are no longer seen as the only credible ‘progressive option’ to ‘stop’ the Conservatives, which could lead to the bottom falling out of their already low national polling numbers.
And with that, I hope you have a great weekend!
Spencer Fernando