Loading ...Question? Where is all that Gold & Silver doom porn from a few days ago saying prices were about to collapse?
This is why sentiment is such an effective tool of trading. Right at the silver seasonal low last week it came in hard and dark. Now look at the Adv/Decline line its turning up after crashing for the past 4 years…
Thanks for the chart, Plunger. Good points! I don’t think it’s doom porn to consider that price can dip toward the breakout. Most metrics have to do with price. Prices rise, metrics rise. We’re still within a consolidation range. Prices can drop in a hurry toward the break out point, or they can meander for a while allowing longer term moving averages to come closer. I think it’s still in a trading range. If I’m wrong, I’ll be a bit late. If I’m right, I’ll save money over time. I appreciate your opinion. We’re all bullish the PMs.
Indeed it hasn’t broken out and ran, it’s consolidating or correcting. I would consider the PM fear gauge of a week ago as getting pretty advanced. The highest since late Feb/early March. I think we have seen 2 bottoms. Fall 2022 and a higher bottom in Oct 2023, The low in late February as see as a shake out retest of the Oct 2023 low. I describe it as a crouching tiger shake out before the advance. I didn’t expect the shake out drive of Jan/Feb and it was painful as i held through the decline. But the lows now to me are buy the dip lows and as a personal measuring gauge when we start to see growing hopelessness its time to add to a position. That’s how I have been playing it.
Recall the Livermore accumulation cone. I think it’s playing out.
“Indeed it hasn’t broken out and ran, it’s consolidating or correcting.”
That was the point. We spoke of a RISK of a mini waterfall decline. Not a certainty. You want to play high risk situations, be my guest.
AND … something is still fishy in this sector, as my LT chart for CEF is still rising relative to GDX. That’s not the way its supposed to be in a PM bull.
I’m still holding metals from 20+ years ago.
And I’m still sitting out the miners for now, except for trades.
Certain miners offer compelling opportunities. Holding GDX has almost always been a mugs game. The buy and hold strategy in this sector really only pertains to the metal itself or select royalties. This sector more than others demands a stock pickers mindset.