Here is what I am looking at from a longer term perspective for gold miners. First i will note that based on my previous post on gdx that I am bullish now for the next couple months, but still longer term bearish. Will attempt to show why.

First the yearly view, and why i am bullish for the next couple months. All cycles have two main trendlines that need to be broken, the rising trendline (broken to signal a decline into a bottom) and a declining trendline (broken to signal a bottom has been set).

In the first pair of images, you can see the inclining trend lines were broken to signal the move towards a low had started.  As i pointed out earlier today, GDX has now broken its declining trend line which signals a bottom has been set (as long as it manages to stay up there by end of day).  To segway into the longer term view, note the gap still open on both charts. This is one of the reasons i am still bearish longer term.

 

Now for the longer term view.  I have noticed a 4 year cycle in metals (oil for example seems to have 3 year cycles).  As you can see I have drawn the two sets of trend lines for the current and previous 4 year cycles.  I did the previous because it highlights very well how important the various factors are in cycles.  While it would have seemed that a major breakout occured in 2019 (and technically it did, but it didn’t hit new highs, and a better opporutnity to buy was waiting less than a year away), it was still too early for a longer term cycle low to be set.  Enter covid, and the true 4 year cycle low was set in early 2020.

Now the reason i am bearish longer term, if it isn’t obvious yet, the inclining trendline has yet to be broken, the declining trendline has yet to be broken, and end of 2022 is far too early for a 4 year cycle low.

 

 

So in conclusion, I believe based on the above, that a tradeable rally has begun for the next couple months.   But caution is warranted because that 4 year trendline is begging to be broken in the next 12 months or less.

Last note: one of tool in my tool box I like to use are fibs, they are also useful to identify bottoms.  32% retracements are usually the minimum target.  So i like to use time and fibs to time bottoms.