Loading ...September update
Following up on my warnings of September. Look at any chart other than the dollar, and most likely it is down (aside from energy, which is a whole other conversation).
Below are two updates from just a week or two ago on posts i made for SPY and the USD. Left is the original, the right is the updated. SPY has hit my bare minimum downside target, but I still think we have at least the 200dma to go, if not further.
I think the USD has 107 still drawing it like a magnet, and this week and next will be very, very tough for everything. We could continue to accelerate down this week, with a culminating capitulation in the first two days next week. Currently still holding my silver shorts from the FOMC spike, and scaled back a bit on my SPY shorts with the minimum target hit. Let’s see how this unfolds!
“I still think we have at least the 200dma to go, if not further”
Concur on that.
I will add, i am also watching for VIX to get very close to 30 as a minimum for a low as well. This is typical of a yearly cycle low.
Appreciate the Charts and discussion Sir Gus
Please keep us Updated
VIX broke above it’s 200 day and you are correct, it is going higher. If it does go to 30 the market is going to get crushed.
Thanks Fully, appreciate getting to contribute!
CM, I am fully expecting the market to get crushed, most markets in all honesty. And USD will rip higher this week and early next.
In EW terms, this decline APPEARS text book.
A nested wave C decline with three 1,2s heading out of the blocks.
The 3 of 3 of 3 is already (nearly) booked.
We’re now looking towards a set of 4,5s to bookend the move.
https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/status/1706676237496664263
Each 4,5 to come should get larger than the prior, based on degree.
Jaime Dimon of JPM says interest rates will increase another 2% — consumers are not ready for the pain this will cause.
JPM’s Dimon Warns: World Not Ready For Fed’s Stagflationary Response
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpms-dimon-warns-world-not-ready-feds-stagflationary-response
They won’t go higher in the short term. Treasuries are about to spike higher (yields down) with the short end yields dropping faster to revert the inversion. This spike down will be the flight to safety with the crash this week and next. FED will lower interest rates before the end of 2023.
Those two events, bonds spiking in the crash and the FED cutting sooner than they are saying will ignite gold and silver.
Not immediately. Metals will succumb to the liquidation just like everything else. Unfortunately, gold and silver aren’t as liquid as cash and treasuries. Gold and Silver will see a long run up, but just a bit more downside to go. like i said, Silver will see 21 handle minimum, likely go into the teens before we head up. Gold could break below 1800, but likely only get close.