Keep Your Pants on, The Dollar is Not Crashing
The internet is really buzzing lately with the recent decline of the dollar. The fall below 100.00 has been quite a triggering experience for certain people. Something about round numbers sets off the Doomers although I never quite understood why. Wake me up when it hits 66.666 and that will be newsworthy. Anyway, the gold afficianados and metals promoters are coming out of the woodwork in large numbers and really amping up the message that the dollar is either A) crashing B) about to crash or C) Its already done like dinner but we just have not recognized the reality yet.
I am here to tell you its none of the above. The dollar is merely correcting its stellar run during 2021/2022 when it rode 25 points vertically over a period of a year and a half. You can see this in the chart I have drawn. Price is currently near a .618 retrace of the move. So nothing much to notice really. Nothing unusual anyway. This pullback is healthy and well within reason given the sharpness of the prior rise. As long as price holds above the support line we should be anticipating it will turn around and go right back up in the coming months. So be careful about taking advice to invest in products that are profitable when the dollar is in retreat as this decline will not last much longer.
I agree that it has brought the weak dollar crowd out of the woodwork. In fact it’s triggered them. The daily chart does look ugly, however perhaps it is just a stakeout before a PBC move upward.
Agreed Plunger. If we only looked at the daily we might conclude its the end of the world for dollars. Thank God for long term charts. The one I am using here is the monthly of course. It gives us the perspective we need. I did not draw the Fibbo’s in since I like to keep my charts as clean as possible. But this decline is just shy of a .618 retrace of the prior sharp move. So there is a little more decline in the works before we reach that point which I peg at 99.267 on the DXY. Price could keep falling of course. Right back to support. But I doubt it goes that far.
What is a PBC?
Nice Chart Farmer!
Here is my USD-monthly post from 6 months ago:
https://goldtadise.com/?p=566863
Thanks Brother Nightingale.
Possibility of a completed BT when connecting 3 dots: top-2017 – march/april-2020 (disregarding the Jan-2020-spike) – now.