Loading ...Trading Bitcoin from a 15 Minute Chart
Here is a quick sample of how I am currently trading the move in Bitcoin today. The opportunity here is worth approximately 1200 points in an ideal world. Even a poor showing should generate close to a thousand point drop though. It is clearly worth the time expended.
My simple trading process works in just a few easy steps. The first step was posted earlier today and just identifies the breakdown on the chart and the overall pattern under development. The next steps are more granular and should not require too much added commentary. In essence I look to identify if I have a valid Fibbonacci reversal after a steep move (Step 1) and once that is done I will estimate the coming move using Gartley extensions. This is not too bad a plan for the most part. The difficulty comes when actually placing the trade which I will generally enter using the one or five minute chart Bollingers to ensure I go into the green almost as soon as I enter the position.
For those trading the moves I hope this is a helpful instruction set.
Now it remains to be seen if my trade plan will reward me. If you are following along on this trade take care when price hangs up on the 50% line as it virtually always does. That’s where it will throw you off your game if you entered late as price will generally rebound from there and appear to be going North again (and putting your position into the red if you are not stopped).
1000pts on BTC is only about 4% these days.
Is that really what you are playing for?
I do have GBTC on monthly sell (pending EOM),
and BITI on buy (same) but the last 6wks are corrective sideways (NOISE), so I don’t see an impulsive move yet (nor its fib retrace thereafter).
Still watching.
Four percent of what Pedro? A thousand points on BTCUSD when its traded as a currency is one dollar per point using a single lot. A five lot trade pays out 5000 dollars. Not bad for a few hours work if you can get a decent entry. So there is no calculation for percentages here. Rather it is targets on a point basis and how much risk you are prepared to put on with your lot sizes.
A brave trader could step it up to 15 or 20 lots of he was confident. The fearful (yet hopeful) might have as little as .02 of a lot which pays 2 cents a point. What I am saying is that a well placed trade with a decent target and good odds of getting there can pay quite significantly. So far my trade has paid a net 225 points but its going well in my view and I anticipate it will get to at least the 75% line on my chart.
Hi Farmer. Its pedro, not Pedro.
And until now, it hasn’t been crystal clear to me that you are playing this in the FX pits. I doubt many others here do, so that’s an important detail as most aren’t acquainted with that. I’ve read where the leverage is really outsized, well beyond what you have trading futures. So its not for novices.
My understanding is that there are also BTC futures. They arrived around the time BTC topped, IIRC. LOL.
Oops I capitalize names automatically. Must get out of that habit since so many names are small case these days. Sorry!
Yes I am trading the currency. If you look at my prior posts I usually identify it by the chart ticker BTCUSD.
That is how you would know what to look at if following along. Hope its helping. My trade is moving slowly but predictably so far.
These are 15 minute bars of course. That means I don’t spend any time staring at them since they move too slowly for my mind. Its more about setting stops using common sense and then allowing the trade to flow unattended.
Lately though I have been getting my ass kicked with the method. Constant stop-outs and resetting trades. So irritating.
“I usually identify it by the chart ticker BTCUSD”
But that is the underlying even if you are trading an ETF, the futures, or some proxy like GBTC. So to my mind, its not “automatic”.
“These are 15 minute bars of course. That means I don’t spend any time staring at them since they move too slowly for my mind.”
Which is funny to me, because I spend most of my time viewing monthlies and weeklies and they don’t move at all. But then they don’t kick my ass too often either. I just have to be more patient. But I also routinely sweep through 250 tickers (well, the software does) so something usually catches my eye each week. I have my favorite setups too and the DAILIES are only for entries. I do zoom down to hourlies for a few charts. As Fully said earlier today, everyone has their own method. Most won’t take on the kind of leverage you do, for sure.