Loading ...The Facts Have Changed
Which is why I posted on March 10th that the FED would be pivoting at the March meeting. “The bullshit about going back to 50 basis points is out the window. He will be cutting rates at the March meeting”. So as this author suggests, anything less than at least a pause (I still think a cut is appropriate and necessary) would just be pouring gas on a fire. The facts have changed, that is what being “data dependent” means, you act based on facts not a pre determined narrative. https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/federal-reserve-rate-pause-financial-bank-panic-eb7c8356?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
We should see 25 bps….higher….to keep the pressure on Davos crowd and Euro Dollar. We are in a war of the giants, and we are just collateral casualties to them.
No different to Covid. They could not care less whether we live or die.
No mistakes here. Its all deliberate.
Memo below is for Chartmaster, not Spock. Just in case there was any doubt.
There is nothing unusual or surprising about a reversal in the rate setting. As technicians we are expecting as much since its a normal part of how chart patterns are created. So in such cases we just set aside all the news and the noise with confidence that our intimate knowledge of how a technical pattern forms will proceed quite naturally. What I am referring to here is a Gartley style pattern that forms in four steps we typically number as ABC and D. The pull back is leg B and then the C-D leg will once again rise and generally equal the length of the A-B leg.
In other words, the so-called pivot is not a meaningful term. A Pivot is suggesting the Federal Reserve is being forced to reverse itself or change course completely and go from a strong interest rate policy stance to one that is opening up the spigot of easy money again. Let me assure you nothing of the type is happening. The reversal is completely natural and expected. When it has completed we will see rates resume their upward trajectory once more. The math behind this kind of pattern will give us a very good idea of how high the next rise will take us. That will be know when the B-C (decline) leg has completed.
From a pure technical point of view (which is to say from a chart perspective), there is pretty much zero analysis required. Its only when we try to fit natural pattern motions of charts into preconceived ideas and political machinations that we start to contrive reasons why X or Y is happening. Don’t burn up your energy.
Technicals rule the charts….fundamentals are a complete waste of your time and neurons.
You keep acting like you are a mind reader. I didn’say or imply that we are going back to the past policy of lower rates. If you follow my posts I have been saying that they went too far too fast and that it is time to let the lags catch up with the policy. They said they would tighten until something broke and that is what they did. All the mumbo jumbo about charts and fundamentals is great for a specific equity or commodity one might be charting. It has nonthing to do with political decisions controlling a country’s monetary policy.
“The facts have changed which is why I posted on March 10th that the FED would be pivoting at the March meeting”. – Sir Chartmaster
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Sure sounds like chest thumping to me. I got it right! Yes yes, told you so. Look at me, look at me. Look at me.
I am the Chartmaster. and I am always right!
Sheesh, get over yourself Chartmaster. There is ALWAYS a pullback on strong moves. Nothing in the market moves in a straight line. Stop trying to impute politics into normal functions of chart structure. You will just get old and go grey and be none the wiser when its all done.
IT’S ALL IN THE CHARTS
…Rambus Circa 2001
You continue to be a troll and rant like a delusional idiot. Stop commenting on my posts. Write your own nonsense on your own posts .
NEITHER CHARTSMASTER NOR FARMER ARE IDIOTS ….THEY BOTH HAVE OPINIONS BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCES.
MARKETS WILL DO WHAT MARKETS DO AND MARKET PARTICIPANTS WILL ANALYSE USING THE TOOLS THAT WORK BEST FOR EACH PERSONALITY
MAY I SUGGEST WE ALL REMAIN HUMBLE …LEST MR MARKET HUMBLE US AS HE IS WON’T TO DO. I KNOW FROM GREAT EXPERIENCE
“I TOLD YOU SO” IS AN EPITHET ON A LOT OF GRAVE STONES
Sounds good to me.
Anyway, I got my moneys worth today.
I use charts. Please show me what charts anyone is using to analyze what the FED decicions are? If you follow the charts of interest rates the “market” has told the FED they are wrong and have over tightened. So how does someone who pretends to know charts come out and say rates are going to continue to rise? They may, but that isn’t what the charts are saying currently. That may change and if they do I will adjust my outlook.