The Final Act
The curtain is about to come down on the US dollar as the sole global reserve currency. Before that happens, there is a final act that should play out over the rest of March. After some further strength this week, gold, silver and stocks will get set up for one last smackdown. That should occur after the Friday phony job numbers, the continuous hawkish nonsense from the FED and a possible surprise 50 basis points increase by the FED at their meeting in two more weeks. Most analysts will suggest that gold and silver could rally to their respective 50 day mvg. avgs. I believe that after reaching them and pausing for a day or two, they will both rally considerably higher, before the FED causes the selloff. In terms of the dollar, it could trade down to the 50 day around 103 while gold and silver rally. Then, when the FED raises rates to cause a spike in the dollar and selloff in the metals, the dollar might reach the 200 day around 106 that it was unable to reach recently. If that is how it plays out, then the correction in the metals would likely be only back down to their respective 50 day mvg. avgs. That would be a sign that once the correction is digested, both gold and silver are going to rocket higher in the next two to three months after the curtain comes down on this final act for the dollar, as the sole global reserve currency.
Sir CM,
You are one of the 3-4 remaining contributors who still follow PMs and the miners actively.
And what a great call you made on the gap-filling action for AI.
And I remember Sir Fully chiding you “why AI???” Is that bear market bounce done yet? Is the downtrend going to resume soon again?
Having bought AI at 45, I’m a deeply in the red bagholder. I could’ve cost averaged down, but didn’t. Lesson learned.
Hats off to you!
Lately, due to a tragedy in the family (losing my 2 year 8 month old GoldenDoodle to disease), I have gotten less and less affected by the unravelling of the Covid scam and even lesser so by the disgusting politics, whether US or outside.
Your note on the coming PM smackdown rhymes with Sir Norvast’s post on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/ColinSt30481392/status/1632281498081701888
Me, I’m still trading juniors, and have 69% realized gains this year YTD.
After 39% for 2022.
Let’s see.
GL
Sorry to hear of your loss. On AI it didn’t get all the way to 16(it still might) so I would be cautious. You do a great job trading the juniors so you should keep doing what you do. I don’t trade them and have been patiently holding them. As I said a while back, I haven’t sold and I haven’t added either. Just waiting it out.
Thank you Sir CM for your condolences.
I didn’t get you on AI.
After having such extreme overboughtness (RSI 88+) on/near Feb 6th 2023, AI came down to 20-ish.
Now with price back at 28, the TA indicators are in severe non-confirming mode.
Are you saying AI could be bought again at 16 or 17 or 18?
Me, I’m in the camp that when (not if) rates rise again, this bear-market-rally, which could have already run its course with the intra-day high today, might resume with ferocity, and AI could crash and burn.
The Fed looks all set for a “surprise” 50 basis points rate hike, but with the raging inflation, we are a ways off from any pause, let alone pivot!
Please share your thoughts.
GL
My call a while back when I said AI was going to have one more spike to around 30 which it did immediately after, also called for a gap fill at 16 which would be where I would try to buy. That remains my entry point, if it gets there. I don’t care about the market, the FED, the war in Ukraine, the economy or anything else. It may not get to 16, but if any of those factors create a weak market and AI falls to 16 I would buy. What happens after that and how the chart develops would determine if it becomes a long term investment or short term trade.
Excellent clarification, Sir CM.
I’ll buy it too, in the 16 neighborhood.
Will post when I buy.
Thank you and God Bless you and yours.
GL