https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/doom-cycle-default-fraud-and-contagion-could-give-way-crypto-spring
I believe the author’s optimism for an eventual crypto comeback is misplaced for the following reasons. Crypto survived and thrived for over a decade for two primary reasons that are unlikely to be repeated or continued. Once again remembering, despite being mislabeled, crypto is not an asset. It’s only appeal is to speculators, hoping to sell to some greater fool, at a higher price than they paid for it. It doesn’t generate a return like from corporate profits or rental income from real estate or interest from a debt instrument. If you can’t find some other fool to pay you more than what you paid for it you are the bag holder when the music stops. The two factors that allowed crypto to get so high in the first place are highly unlikely to ever be repeated again. First, the disastorous economic policy of zero and negative interest rates in most of the global economy are unlikely to be repeated again, anytime soon, if ever. This nonsensical policy intoduced by Bernanke and continued by Yellen and even Powell will not be repeated. Even if the current FED policy produces a deep recession, most FED officials and policymakers realize that while you lower rates in a recession, you still need to have some cost of money(interest rate)or your currency basically becomes worthless. Even during the depression, rates went from 6% down to 2% and as low as .8% but never to zero, and this was when because of being on a gold standard, you actually had deflation which meant that real rates were always well above 1% and always positive. So it is unlikely you will go down to zero or negative again. Perhaps even more importantly, you are finally going to get some regulation of crypto that will make it even less attractive. Up until this point, the reason crypto was not regulated(despite many calls to do so) was because it’s biggest proponents, including SBF and other exchange and sofi companies were pouring money into the coffers of the politicians especially the Democrats who were and still are mostly in power. Given the exposure to what has occurred and the GOP taking over the House, as always happens in these money driven scandals, regulation and legislation comes after the fact. There are no fundamentals for crypto, interest rates are not going back to zero and it is unlikely that massive trillion dollar stimmy programs will be back anytime soon. While crypto might not disappear overnite, I expect we will witness a slow, drawn out process where both prices and interest in them, just gradually drifts lower over a period of years. https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/doom-cycle-default-fraud-and-contagion-could-give-way-crypto-spring