Trading update
I gather folks are getting whipsawed.
Not all though.
Anyone tracking the wave counts knew a bottom was lurking.
Gregor/Grega Horvat posted his explicit graphic warning for a local bottom about 6:40am long before the open.
Others were tracking 5 waves down off the August highs. (even bigger degree bottom)
My own work is still looking for a 5th wave down, likely into November.
So this was likely just the end of a third wave (with five waves done internally) at higher degree, and now we’re in a 4th wave rebound.
Even when we bottom in Nov, it could EASILY be merely an extended respite in the Bear. As large A in ABC or 1 in an 12345 as Bears.
Then there’s Simon Hunt, who recently suggested a major and final reprieve (to new highs even).
Zeberg thinks that’s ahead too.
It would coincide with a bond market reprieve, which to my eyes would be a 2nd wave up bounce in price, down in yield.
(likely requires energy down, perhaps Ukraine ‘resolved’)
Before the really big implosion a year from now, when the bond mkt tanks in a 3rd wave down.
Be done prepping before then. And above all, key into what the bond market is saying.
That is ALL that matters now.
For hard money types, don’t forget that bond market bears … tend to be CRB market bulls. Like the 70s.
EW detail.
Today “could” have marked the end of five waves down off the Aug highs, per various counts.
But it likely did not.
Since I see more downside fairly directly off my non EW work.
The resolution to this lies in what is called an expanded aka irregular or running correction as an abc.
Where the b wave marks a new low but within an upward correction.
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/usdjpy-forecasting-elliottwave-flat-pattern/
So this 4th wave I referred to HAS BEEN underway for awhile (since late Sept), and today’s low was the b wave with ONLY c up left to go.
The long term gold and silver charts are broken as far as I am concerned, with the 100 WMAs firmly pointed downwards, a pretty clear indicator of at least a cyclical bear market.
The Fed has been bitch slapping gold bugs for 10 years and it looks like that will continue until the day the walls come tumbling down.
Just buy physical. Speculating in the metals is a mugs game.